UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales - Can wily veteran halt undefeated prospect?

The UFC returns to the UFC APEX on Saturday night for a UFC Fight Night event that pits two different fighting generations head to head.

In the red corner, seasoned veteran and longtime welterweight contender Gilbert Burns. In the blue corner, an undefeated talent out of Ecuador looking to prove that he belongs in the championship conversation in a crowded 170-pound division.

The fight also sees the two men in contrasting form. Morales is undefeated in 17 fights, while Burns is looking to snap a three-fight skid. Youth and momentum are all with Morales, but experience can trump everything inside the Octagon. But will that be the case on Saturday night?

Tale of the tape: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

Gilbert Burns: Can ‘Durinho’ keep pace with the next generation?

Gilbert Burns has been one of the most dangerous men in the world at 170 pounds for years. The former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion brought his elite ground game to the UFC, then developed a striking style that showcased his knockout power to become a serious contender in the welterweight division.

But now, as he prepares to make the walk to the UFC Octagon for the 24th time, Burns finds himself at a career crossroads. His last three fights all ended in defeat for the Brazilian as decision losses to Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady sandwiched a knockout loss to Jack Della Maddalena. The big question now is do those losses highlight a decline in “Durinho’s” powers, or is he still a factor at 170 pounds?

Firstly, it’s worth noting the calibre of the opposition in those three defeats. Muhammad was welterweight champion heading into last weekend, while Della Maddalena just defeated Muhammad to capture the 170-pound title.

Brady, meanwhile, dominated former champ Leon Edwards last time out, and is probably as little as one win away from a shot at the title himself. So, Burns hasn’t exactly lost to mediocre opposition - he’s been beaten by three of the division’s top five.

But one opponent no fighter can defeat is 'father time', and Burns is 38 years of age, with 30 professional MMA fights under his belt. He’s had some real wars, too. His jiu-jitsu remains some of the very best in the UFC, but he tends not to use it as much as he probably should, as he prefers to stand and bang. It’s great for the crowd, but it hasn’t always been the smartest approach for his career.

Michael Morales: Can Ecuadorian star gatecrash the title picture at 170?

The UFC welterweight division is undergoing a changing of the guard. The veterans who once dominated the division are being usurped and replaced by a new generation of fighting talent.

That takeover continued last weekend when Della Maddalena captured the welterweight title at UFC 315, but with the likes of Brady, Ian Machado Garry, Joaquin Buckley and Carlos Prates all looking like potential future title contenders at 170 pounds, the UFC’s welterweight class is pretty crowded.

Morales sits just outside of that group, but that’s due primarily to his level of opposition. The Ecuadorian is perfect at 17-0, but Burns represents the highest-calibre opponent he’s faced to date.

So far, every time the UFC has levelled Morales up, he’s delivered, and his demolition job on respected divisional stalwart Neil Magny last time out showed that he’s ready for another bump up in competition.

He’s getting that against Burns this weekend in Las Vegas, and victory over the respected Brazilian veteran will see him join that aforementioned group of young guns vying for a title shot in the next few years.

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales: The key factors

On paper, the bout presents a clear contrast between youth and experience, but for Burns it’s all about how much he leans on that in-cage savvy on fight night.

We mentioned earlier that he has opted not to take full advantage of his jiu-jitsu and instead chose to lean on his striking, and it will be crucial that he mixes up his game against Morales, who has overwhelmed his opponents with strikes in his UFC victories so far.

Morales’ big weapon in this fight is undoubtedly his stand-up. He showed in his Dana White’s 'contender series' win to get into the UFC that he does have takedowns in his locker if he needs them, but his preference is definitely to stand and strike.

If he avoids the ground, he has the tools to get the job done. But if the action does hit the mat, Burns has the submission tools to pull something out of the bag and hand Morales the first defeat of his career.

The main keys will be in the stand-up and in the transitions. With the fight standing, both men will fancy their chances with their respective punch power, but the crucial moments will come when the fight goes to the ground, either via a takedown or a knockdown.

It’s unlikely that Burns will arrive with a wrestle and grapple-heavy approach, but if he did, that would increase his chances of victory significantly, with his elite-level grappling a serious danger if the fight does go to the floor.

FIRST’s top tip for Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

I’m hugely respectful of Burns’ resume and experience, but it’s hard to ignore the momentum and athleticism of Morales in this matchup. 

If you’re looking to back the Ecuadorian simply to win the fight, Ladbrokes’ odds of 2/13 are significantly better than the 1/8 that is widely available elsewhere. But if you’re looking for a little more bang for your betting buck, there’s more value to be found in backing the winning method for Morales.

Morales’ stand-up fighting style means he’s a 4/6 shot with BetMGM to win the fight by KO/TKO, but with Burns having been stopped just three times in his career, and having taken monsters like Khamzat Chimaev the distance, the 12/5 on a Morales victory on the scorecards looks like a solid value pick.

PICK: MICHAEL MORALES TO WIN BY DECISION @ 12/5 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

The co-main event in Vegas sees Brazilian knockout artist Rodolfo Bellato face Scottish submission ace Paul Craig, and the odds may offer the chance of a great value side bet.

Craig has lost his last three UFC fights, but they all came at middleweight after his decision to move down to 185 pounds didn’t pan out as he’d hoped. But this weekend he’s back at his natural weight class of light heavyweight, and he’s taking on a fighter with just two UFC fights to his name, and a very striking-heavy skillset.

Bellato does have submissions to his name, but he specialises in knockouts. Craig, meanwhile, is the human equivalent of quicksand. If he drags you to the mat, you’re in big trouble. With Craig back at his best weight class, and with a significant experience edge, the odds of 4/1 for him to win look outstanding. 

But, when Paul Craig wins, he invariably does it by submission, and you can get him to do that for a whopping 15/2. He’s done it to better fighters than Bellato - Craig is the only man to defeat UFC light heavyweight champion Magomed Ankalaev - so the odds here are well worth a cheeky punt.

PICK: PAUL CRAIG TO WIN BY SUBMISSION @ 15/2 (BETMGM)