Intense Raffles a certainty says Grand National winning jockey Paul Carberry

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Jockey Paul Carberry, who rode Bobbyjo to Grand National victory in 1999, has said that current favourite, Intense Raffles, looks a “certainty” for the race, citing a conversation he had with somebody who works with trainer Thomas Gibney. 

He also said the training team aims to take the double after winning the Irish Grand National. 

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Following the withdrawal of this month’s Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin in an earlier round of scratches, Intense Raffles has been installed as the favourite for the flagship race and is currently priced at 7/1 via Coral, just ahead of Iroko and Stumptown at 8/1, and last year’s winner I Am Maximus at 9/1.

Carberry said: “Intense Raffles is very good. He is a worthy favourite. I was speaking to a lad that works with Thomas Gibney and said he is a certainty for it. He is a very nice horse, he’s been targeted for this race.”

Having taken victory in last year’s Irish Grand National, Intense Raffles stuck to hurdles until this year’s Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. 

In that race, he finished second to Nick Rockett and Intense Raffles weighed 3lb more than the winner, but will be running 12lb lighter at Aintree. 

Nick Rockett is currently 14/1 in the betting. Rockett was the beaten favourite in last year’s Irish National. 

Carberry also said that he, like Keith Donoghue, is also keen on Stumptown. Stumptown, who is the joint second favourite at 8/1 for this year’s race, has performed well at cross-country races, having won his last four. 

The Gavin Cromwell-trained ride could carry that form over to the National course and is believed to be Cromwell’s best horse for the main event.

Carberry also said: “I think that Intense Raffles will be very hard to beat, I know Keith Donoghue is sweet on Stumptown too. It would be nice to see him run well but I think those two will be the main two I’ll be following. I’d give Vanillier a squeak too.”

Vanillier is currently 12/1 in the betting, slightly ahead of Nick Rockett in early prices. After finishing runner-up to Corach Rambler two years ago, Vanillier could only manage 14th last year. 

Although it is generally believed that Vanillier may have had and missed his chance in 2023, he is in better form than last year.

Paul Carberry rode Irish horse Bobbyjo to victory in 1999, following in his father’s footsteps. Tommy Carberry was on the back of L’Escargot, which won the 1975 Grand National. 

Bobbyjo was trained by Tommy and ridden by his son Paul when it ran home as the 10/1 victor. It was the first time in 24 years an Irish-trained horse had won the race, with Tommy’s ride on L’Escargot being the previous example. 

Irish trainers may have struggled during the decades between the Carberry's victories, but that is no longer the case, with five of the past six Grand Nationals being won by Irish-trained horses, giving Carberry’s three selections every chance of taking victory this year.

Odds via Coral and are correct at the time of writing.