US election odds: Could Donald Trump serve a third term?

IMAGO

On numerous occasions during his Presidential campaign, and even since being elected, US President Donald Trump has hinted at serving a third term; and the odds have now been made. 

Despite elected Presidents being constitutionally limited to two terms in power, Trump said, in an interview with NBC News: “A lot of people want me to do it. But, I mean, I basically tell them we have a long way to go, you know, it’s very early in the administration.” 

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According to the latest odds, bookmakers believe he has a reasonable chance of serving another term. He is 16/1 via Ladbrokes to do exactly that, putting him slightly behind his son, Donald Trump Jr. (14/1), in the odds, and on a par with Gavin Newsom (16/1).

Before World War II, there were no official restrictions on how many terms a President could serve. George Washington and Thomas Jefferson opted against running for a third term, leading to an unwritten limit of two terms. 

However, Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected for a third and fourth Presidency in 1940 and 1944 respectively. Roosevelt died not long into his fourth term, in 1945. 

But, amid fears that Presidents could effectively serve indefinitely, Congress passed the 22nd Amendment, on 12 March 1947. After receiving ratification from the required 36 of 48 states, the process was completed. 

Since February 1951, the 22nd Amendment has stated that: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”

The wording of the amendment has led to many political commentators, and pro-Trump supporters, claiming that somebody, most likely current Vice President JD Vance, could run in 2028, with Trump as their Vice President. 

If they were to emerge victorious, they could immediately step down, leaving Trump to take office as President and serve a third term. 

When NBC News asked if this was a viable option, Trump indicated this was one of several methods he might be considering, saying: “But there are others too. A lot of people want me to do it.”

Another option, although one that would require a lot more work, would be to change the constitution. However, to do this, Trump would need a two-thirds approval in the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as from three-quarters of the states. 

The Republican Party does control both chambers but does not have the kind of majority required to pass such a bill, and the Democratic Party controls enough states to veto the move.  

The current favourite to win the 2028 election is current Vice President JD Vance, at odds of 5/2. Other front runners include Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania, who has been given odds of 12/1. 

Current odds via Ladbrokes and are correct at the time of writing: