Premier League betting tips: Matchweek 17 preview

The final Premier League matchweek before Christmas is bookended by a pair of tasty looking fixtures: Aston Villa host Manchester City on Saturday lunchtime, with Liverpool travelling to Tottenham on Sunday afternoon.

The matches in between include a ‘Bobby Robson derby’, a cross-capital clash at Selhurst Park and a battle of the blues at Goodison Park. This weekend should not disappoint. 

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Aston Villa vs Manchester City betting tips

Sometimes you have to scratch your head at the bookmakers’ odds. Manchester City are favourites to win at Villa Park, yet have just one victory from their previous 11 games in all competitions. 

Granted, Aston Villa also had a bad run recently, but the underlying data says they should be favourites. There has been little in City’s recent performances to suggest otherwise.

Villa won this fixture last season, drew in 2022/23 and only lost the previous three by the odd goal. It was close against peak City, so they should be fine for a positive result here.

Scoreline prediction

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City (12/1 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Draw no bet: Aston Villa (29/20 with 888 Sport)

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest betting tips

Regular readers will have seen a tip for two first half goals in a Brentford home game before. But until it stops happening, why bet against it?

This selection has paid out in the Bees’ previous five games at the Gtech Stadium, with those matches seeing an average of four goals in the opening 45 minutes. 

After three goalless first halves in their opening four away games, there have been at least two goals before the break in three of Nottingham Forest’s last four matches on the road too. 

Scoreline prediction

Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest (147/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 1.5 first half goals (13/8 with Bet365)

Ipswich vs Newcastle betting tips

Set pieces may not play much part in the outcome of this game as Ipswich and Newcastle have only conceded three goals from corners between them this season.

Portman Road sees plenty of attempts though. Only one match there this season failed to hit double figures for corners. There were 19 last time out when Bournemouth were the visitors. 

While not quite equalling that, Newcastle have had two away games in which there were 17 corners.  This is undoubtedly the best match-up this weekend for having a bet in that market. 

Scoreline prediction

Ipswich 1-1 Newcastle (7/1 with William Hill)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 10.5 corners (10/11 with Skybet)

West Ham vs Brighton betting tips

West Ham and Brighton have the same results and goal difference across their last six league games. 

The former will be feeling the better of the two, though. In their previous three matches, the Seagulls suffered a pair of 3-1 defeats and a 2-2 draw at Leicester in which they were 2-0 up in the 86th minute.

There should be a similar level of goals here, even if the last meeting ended 0-0 in January. The Hammers won 3-1 at Brighton last season, while the last six clashes in east London include a 3-3 draw and a pair of 2-2s. West Ham’s recent home results include a 4-1 win and 5-2 loss too. 

Scoreline prediction

West Ham 2-2 Brighton (11/1 with Bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 3.5 goals (17/12 with Matchbook)

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal betting tips

Arsenal won this fixture 1-0 last season, 2-0 the year before. The records of these teams this season suggest a similarly low goal total here, and we can ignore their Carabao Cup clash on Wednesday (which Arsenal won 3-2) due to Mikel Arteta heavily changing the line-up. 

The Gunners are bottom of the Premier League for matches in which there were at least three goals, with Crystal Palace only one place above them. They are also both joint bottom for home and away matches as appropriate to this fixture.

There’s always a chance Arsenal could run riot, as they did when winning 5-2 at West Ham recently. But every other away game they’ve played against a team starting the weekend below fifth saw a maximum of two goals. 

Scoreline prediction

Crystal Palace 0-2 Arsenal (7/1 with 888 Sport)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 goals (93/100 with MrPlay)

Everton vs Chelsea betting tips

Chelsea do not have a good record at Goodison Park. They have won just once in their last six away games against Everton. 

However, they are the most in-form team in the Premier League and will go top of the table, if perhaps only temporarily, with a win on Sunday. That’s a big incentive. 

Noni Madueke could be Chelsea’s key man. Despite only starting two of the last four league games, across those matches he had 15 shots, with seven on target and five big chances. He should’ve scored more than once but he’s in form.

Scoreline prediction

Everton 0-2 Chelsea (17/2 with Bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Noni Madueke to score any time (10/3 with Bet365)

Fulham vs Southampton betting tips

The formbook suggests this match will end in a 3-1 home win. That was the outcome when Fulham hosted Brighton and Newcastle, while Southampton have already lost by that scoreline at Arsenal, Bournemouth and Brentford. 

A two-goal win for Marco Silva’s side feels about right irrespective of those other results. Any team that can score twice away at Liverpool and Manchester City before their meltdown should be able to rattle a few past the most error-prone team in the Premier League.

Russell Martin might have left but it will take more than that to tighten up the leaky Saints. 

Scoreline prediction

Fulham 3-1 Southampton (171/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Handicap: Fulham -1 (6/5 with William Hill)

Leicester vs Wolves betting tips

This game is massive regardless, but if Ipswich win on Saturday then both teams will start this match in the bottom three. 

It’s likely to feature plenty of action. A bet on both teams to score combined with over 2.5 goals has paid out in Leicester’s previous four home matches and five of Wolves’ last six on the road.

Two of the last three meetings have ended in 2-1 home wins too. That feels like a very plausible outcome unless the visitors respond positively to the dismissal of Gary O’Neil. 

Scoreline prediction

Leicester 2-1 Wolves (19/2 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (10/11 with Betway)

Manchester United vs Bournemouth betting tips

Bournemouth stunned Old Trafford by winning this fixture 3-0 last December. They also led twice in the return game on their patch, albeit Manchester United rallied on that occasion to claim a point.

The underlying expected goal numbers for 2024/25 suggest the Cherries have a good chance of another positive result this weekend. According to expected points, only Liverpool have been better than Bournemouth this season.

While United won the Manchester derby last weekend, they left it very late. The visitors here have far more energy than City and will cause Ruben Amorim’s side plenty of problems. 

Scoreline prediction

Manchester United 1-1 Bournemouth (15/2 with Bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Double chance: Bournemouth-Draw (21/20 with 888 Sport)

Tottenham vs Liverpool betting tips

This fixture from last season is best remembered for one of the worst VAR mistakes the Premier League has seen, thanks to Luis Diaz’s wrongly disallowed goal. There were two red cards as well though, with Curtis Jones and Diogo Jota sent off for the visitors. 

Five of the last six meetings of Tottenham and Liverpool have seen at least five yellow cards. Two of the last three in London hit eight. 

And referee Sam Barrott should continue that general trend. He has shown at least six yellows in seven of his 10 Premier League matches this season. 

Scoreline prediction

Tottenham 1-2 Liverpool (15/2 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 5 cards (10/11 with Bet365)