Eurovision expected to be as big a betting event as Super Bowl

Eurovision has ended for another year, and according to industry figures, it has evolved from a niche market to contend with other major betting markets including the Super Bowl. 

While Remember Monday had a result to forget, one group that fared better during the music contest was bookmakers and betting sites. According to reports, Eurovision betting volume had already surpassed 2023’s volumes before the final weekend, and betting exchange Betfair has said it expects the market to have surpassed that of the Super Bowl by the time results are in.

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Sweden were the early favourites for this year’s Eurovision event, held in Basel, Switzerland. However, the active betting market saw some price changes, including a substantial shortening of the odds on Austria. With the public vote playing such an important part in the modern points format, the shortening of odds can be seen as a reasonable indication of who will get that half of the vote.

Sam Rosbottom of Betfair said: “Punters have a great record of picking the winner too, with four of the pre-competition favourites going on to win in the last five editions of the singing contest. Last year, Switzerland were the third favourites and overcame odds of 8/1 to win.”

Remember Monday got all of their 88 points from the judges' votes, which shows you can’t rely on any single source of points. 

Event betting markets tend to be considered niche by bookmakers. Current specials markets include predicting the winner of Britain’s Got Talent or who will play the next James Bond. Such markets have grown in popularity. Hundreds of millions of pounds were wagered on who would be chosen as the next Pope. Eventual winner, Cardinal Robert Prevost, saw only a fraction of those wagers, eventually taking the Papacy from odds of 66/1. 

Eurovision is not the first event regular bettors have previously considered. This could be because of accusations of political voting. However, fans of the competition say that voting isn’t political. Neighbouring countries voting for one another is indicative of shared musical preferences and shared music industries, rather than political leanings. The changing of the voting system in 2016 may have also led to an uptick in popularity. Before 2016, the public vote and jury vote were combined, but since 2016, points have been awarded separately. As a result of the change, viewers feel like their votes matter more and there is less chance of political voting. 

Another reason for its increased popularity is likely the availability of online betting. Casual bettors would otherwise have to head to a local betting shop to place their wager. Now, players can log on, watch acts, and place their bets all online. 

Whatever the reasons, Eurovision betting has become more popular. Rosbottom said that the betting exchange was expecting to receive a total of £10m in bets on the competition, by the time of the final, which would put it ahead of the Tyson Fury fight against Alexander Usyk, and would put it in the same kind of betting league as the Super Bowl in the US.