Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika: Can Aussie star deliver big performance on home soil?

Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika: full fight card

•Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika – for Ring Magazine and IBF cruiserweight world titles

•Justis Huni vs Shaun Potgieter – for WBO Global and IBF Pan Pacific heavyweight titles

•Max McIntyre vs Abdulselam Saman – for IBF Youth super middleweight title

•Ben Mahoney vs Fan Zhang – for IBF Pan Pacific super welterweight title

•Billy McAllister vs Jordan Towns

•Austin Aokuso vs Leti Leti – IBF Pan Pacific light heavyweight title

•Taylah Gentzen vs Shauna Browne•Tony Ingram vs Runqi Zhou

•Teremoana Junior vs Osasu Otobo

•Xavier Fletcher vs Freddy Doidoi

•Albert Tu’ua vs Kodi Shallali

It’s not often that we get some midweek fight action, but that’s exactly what we’ll be getting this week from the other side of the world, as IBF cruiserweight world champion Jai Opetaia puts his title on the line on Wednesday lunchtime, UK time, on Australia’s Gold Coast.

Opetaia was originally scheduled to face undefeated mandatory challenger Huseyin Cinkara, but after the German was forced out of the bout with an ankle injury, New Zealand’s undefeated David Nyika has stepped in, and plans to turn the cruiserweight division upside down with an upset victory on just two weeks’ notice.

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Tale of the tape: Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika

Jai Opetaia: Will experience pay off against short-notice opposition?

Australia’s Opetaia has worked his way up the division and now sits as the man considered by many to be the world’s premier cruiserweight. The IBF champion’s stock is so high that even undisputed heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk has been linked with a move back down to cruiserweight to face him. In his own division, there’s also the option of a unification bout with Mexican star Gilbert Ramirez, who added the WBO title to his WBA belt with victory over Chris Billam-Smith in November.

Clearly, big things lie ahead for Opetaia, but to get to those big-money matchups, he has to face a dangerous banana-skin fight against Nyika. He hasn’t had much time to prepare for him, and with Nyika still relatively new in the pro ranks with just 10 fights to his name, there isn’t a huge amount of tape on him at the pro level. 

It’s a fight where Opetaia will have to lean on his experience, his ring savvy, and his skills, to ensure he avoids a shock defeat to a fellow knockout artist who has him outmatched in both height and reach.

David Nyika: Can former Olympian claim gold with short-notice shock?

Opportunity knocks for Nyika, who stepped up to take the fight on short notice, but he feels he’s more than ready to explode onto the world stage with a division-altering knockout of Opetaia.

Travel won’t be an issue, with the fight taking place in Australia, so no last-minute timezone acclimatisation will be needed, and Opetaia is certainly a known entity, with the Aussie rising the ranks to become one of the biggest names of Australasian boxing.

He’s used to competing on the big stage, having won Olympic bronze at the 2020 Games in Tokyo, and he’ll head into the bout with some notable physical advantages over the defending champion. When they meet in the middle of the ring on Wednesday night, Nyika will stand four inches taller than Opetaia, and will benefit from a three-inch reach advantage. 

He’ll be looking to use those advantages to land clean on the champion, and he’s confident that the punch power that has seen him finish nine of his 10 opponents to date can take him to a huge shock victory, and the IBF world title.

Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika: The key factors

If you base this purely on the bookies’ odds, this should be a formality. Opetaia is a massive favourite to win the fight, and understandably so, given his standing as an undefeated world champion with a formidable knockout rate. But Nyika knows how to get the job done inside the distance, too, and given his physical advantages, he may well provide a sterner challenge than the pre-fight odds might suggest.

But aside from Nyika’s height and reach advantages, there are other factors in play here, too. Firstly, this fight came together late, with Nyika stepping in on short notice. That could take the edge off Opetaia and offer Nyika a small edge, as the champion was preparing for someone else. 

It’s also worth noting that while Opetaia is one of the stars of the division, he was made to dig deep in his May 2024 fight with former IBF champion Mairis Breidis. Opetaia had outpointed Breidis to win the title back in 2022, and a determined Breidis was gunning for revenge when they rematched in Riyadh. There were times during the fight when Opetaia looked under big pressure as Breidis loaded up at close range and found success with big shots. Ultimately, Opetaia rode out the storm to claim the decision victory, but Nyika will have seen that, and will fancy his chances of pushing Opetaia even harder than Breidis did that night.

While we’ve seen Opetaia pushed to the limit and come through victorious, we can’t say the same for Nyika, and Opetaia will look to take the big Kiwi out of his comfort zone by weathering an early storm and dragging him into the deep waters of the middle, and perhaps later, rounds.

FIRST’s top tip for Jai Opetaia vs David Nyika

Both men have the sort of punch power that can turn a fight in their favour, but Opetaia has kept much higher company in his longer, more seasoned career to date. That, coupled with the fact that Nyika hasn’t been past five rounds in his pro career, makes a mid-rounds stoppage victory for the IBF champion a tempting prospect. At odds of 1/9, Opetaia is totally unbackable in the standard win markets, but pinpointing the most likely finishing point of the fight can offer some odds-against value. 

BetMGM offers different round group betting options, with the ability to back a finish in groups of two, three, four or six rounds. I expect Opetaia to keep things compact early as he assesses his opponent before loading up in the middle rounds. With that in mind, the 9/5 available on Opetaia getting the job done in Rounds 5-8 looks like a solid option at decent odds.

PICK: JAI OPETAIA TO WIN IN ROUNDS 5-8 – 9/5 (BETMGM)

Extra tips

Whenever there’s a big fight with such a huge difference in the odds, it’s always worth looking at a small insurance bet to cover your bases, if the odds allow. And in this case, they certainly do. Nyika is a massive underdog, but I think that if he’s going to get the job done, it’ll be by stoppage. BetMGM offers 16/1 on Nyika to get the victory in Rounds 1-6, and 17/1 to finish Opetaia in Rounds 7-12. Both offer great value for a wide spread of rounds. A small side bet on one, or both, offers some solid insurance against a Nyika victory.

Odds correct at the time of writing.