Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim: Will 'The Monster' avoid a colossal shock against ‘Pacquiweather’?

Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim full fight card

• Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim – for undisputed junior featherweight title
• Jin Sasaki vs Shoki Sakai; welterweight
• Goki Kobayashi vs Yuni Takada – strawweight
• Toshiki Shimomachi vs Misaki Hirano – junior featherweight
• Tsubasa Narai vs Kai Watanabe – lightweight

One of boxing's very best will step into the ring to defend his titles on 24 January as Japanese superstar Naoya Inoue puts his undisputed junior featherweight crown on the line against short-notice replacement challenger Ye Joon Kim in Tokyo.

Inoue was all set to face number-one contender Sam Goodman, but when the Australian contender was forced out of the fight with an eye injury, promoters scrambled and secured a short-notice opponent, with South Korea’s Kim agreeing to step up for the biggest – and toughest – assignment of his career.

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Tale of the tape: Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim

Naoya Inoue: Can Japanese ace avoid a banana skin?

On paper, this should be a relatively easy night at the office for Inoue. He’s at the peak of his powers, is undefeated and doesn’t look like losing any time soon. And on January 24 he’s facing a short-notice opponent who is little known outside of his native South Korea.

It’s a bout that was booked largely to retain the fight date for Inoue and keep the broadcasters and ticket buyers happy. But in pure boxing terms, this isn’t a match-up that carries much real risk to Inoue’s title reign.

However, hubris has undone many a champion fighter down the years, and Inoue will need to remain laser-focused on the job at hand. 

Kim might not have the most prodigious knockout rate of Inoue’s past opponents, but the Japanese superstar will be facing a man who knows he has only one shot at sporting immortality and will be lifting his performance to new heights in a bid to make the unlikely happen.

For Inoue, this is a job of work, and one he needs to carry out diligently, with the sort of violent efficiency we saw from him in his 2024 wins over Luis Nery and TJ Doheny. 

If he sticks to the script and fights to his usual level, this should be a relatively easy night at the office. But if he allows complacency to sneak into his mindset, Inoue could be in for a more difficult night than expected.

Ye Joon Kim: Can South Korean star produce an all-time shock?

Opportunity knocks for South Korea’s Ye Joon Kim, who was handed the chance to step in to face Inoue on just 13 days’ notice, and the veteran of 37 pro fights will bid to shock the world on January 24.

For Kim, this is a free hit, a shot to nothing, an opportunity with huge upside and very little risk. He’s fancied to win by virtually nobody. He’s ranked 11th in the world by the WBO, but doesn’t appear anywhere in any of the other major junior featherweight/super bantamweight rankings, and heads into the bout, for many observers, as a virtual unknown.

He’s lost just once in his last 18 fights, and only twice overall. But the scale of this step up can’t be underestimated – Kim hasn’t faced anyone remotely in the same galaxy as Inoue during his career.

To say this is an Asian Rocky story would seem appropriate, but if Kim is Rocky Balboa, Inoue is Ivan Drago, Clubber Lang and Apollo Creed all rolled into one. That’s the scale of the task in front of Kim, and the odds reflect that fact. Victory for ‘Pacquiweather’ would be one of the biggest world title shocks in recent memory. 

Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim: The key factors

In a fight that is universally viewed as one-sided, almost all of the key factors lie on the side of the champion.

Inoue has elite-level knockout power at the weight, and he’s able to carry that power through to the latter rounds of a world title fight. That means the threat of the knockout will be there throughout the fight, for as long as it lasts.

Inoue has been to the judges just twice in his pro career, the last time being more than five years ago, but if Kim is hoping to take ‘The Monster’ into the later rounds, he may find himself disappointed. 

In addition to his elite-level knockout power, Inoue’s record shows that he’s able to carry that power through to the latter rounds of world title fights against top-drawer opposition.

That means the threat of a knockout will be there in every single round. 

What we know about Kim is he’ll be looking to produce the performance of a lifetime. He’ll want to avoid an early stoppage, take the fight into the later rounds and hope to find a breakthrough at some point during the bout.

Inoue was dropped in the opening round of his title win against Nery last year, and Kim is sure to have analysed that moment countless times as he looks to find a way to penetrate Inoue’s defences.

The other thing Kim will be leaning on heavily in the bout is his toughness. The South Korean has only lost twice and has never been stopped. He’ll be hoping to preserve that record against Inoue by pushing the pace on the champion and hanging tough as the fight wears on.

I don’t think it’s too outlandish to say that we’re in Buster Douglas territory with Kim. He needs a shock of that magnitude to dethrone Inoue.  

His fighting nickname of “Pacquimayweather” is an amalgamation of two all-time greats of the boxing ring, and he’ll be looking to channel the very best from Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather to claim a monumental shock on 24 January. 

FIRST’s top tip for Naoya Inoue vs Ye Joon Kim

In a fight that is viewed by the oddsmakers as being so one-sided, the search for value can be a tough one. But thankfully, there are potential routes to a half-decent return via Betway’s round betting markets.

Inoue is the clear pick, but the big question is how quickly will he get the job done? He’s a stingy 11/10 to do it inside the first three rounds – something he’s achieved three times before in super bantamweight/junior featherweight title fights already. 

But in a fight where there are so many unknowns with his opponent, the smart pick might be to look at an Inoue win slightly deeper into the fight.

With an opponent who hasn’t fought at this level, Inoue may want to take a round or two to assess Kim’s reach and timing before he loads up and looks to take him out, and I like the 13/8 available for Inoue to get the job done in rounds 4-6.

PICK: Naoya Inoue to win in rounds 4-6 – (13/8 Betway)

Extra tips

If you want to chance your arm and pick the exact round you think Inoue will claim the finish, even better odds can be had, but the task is much trickier. Given that we’ve selected rounds 4-6 above, the best value in that range is the 9/1 available with Betway on a ninth-round win for Inoue. 

If you take that, you’ll be rooting for Kim to weather the early storm, but if Inoue starts steadily, those odds might begin to look very good if Kim settles into the bout after the first couple of rounds.

Pick: Naoya Inoue to win in the ninth round (9/1 Betway) 

Odds correct at the time of writing.