Farmers Insurance Open betting tips: Jason’s day at Torrey Pines?

Farmers Insurance Open: Things to consider

It's a Wednesday start at Torrey Pines as the PGA Tour season moves into first gear. The Farmers Insurance Open will see an early tee-off for the third time in a row. 

2024 was a good year for the Europeans who won the 10 PGA Tour cards on offer for the top DP World Tour players not otherwise exempt. 

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One of the card winners, Matthieu Pavon, became the first Frenchman this century to win stateside when he emerged victorious over fellow PGA Tour card winner Nicolai Hojgaard at Torrey Pines. Robert McIntyre is another of the 10 who would go on to grab a PGA Tour title. Pavon defends the Farmers Insurance Open title this week (at 125/1 with Spreadex).

There are 500 FedEx Cup points on offer, along with a purse of $9.3m (£7.55m) with $1.7m (£1.38m) going to the winner.

Farmers Insurance Open: Top of the market

The Farmers Insurance Open will be played over two courses, Torrey Pines North and Torrey South – the second of which will host 54 holes of the golf tournament. 

Length off the tee at Torrey Pines is a prerequisite while iron play and putting from the 4–10-foot range will be at a premium. The North course after renovations in recent years is playing around 2.5-3 shots easier than the South.

The in-form Hideki Matsuyama is second-favourite 10/1 with both Betway and BetMGM following his victory at The Sentry. Only topped by Ludvig Aberg (17/2 with BetMGM and 8/1 with Betway) who has a high course fit rating for Torrey Pines is next in line in the betting. 

Tony Finau is right up there in the market too and Finau and Aberg both featured in the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open finishing t6 and t9 respectively. Both had a good shot at victory.

My Farmers Insurance Open shortlist this week is all about the big hitters. At Torrey South, there are no obstacles to get by if you miss a fairway so the further you hit it the better. The depth of the rough on both courses will be key.

Tony Finau (25/1 Spreadex) is generally an auto pick for me at Torrey Pines if he’s marked up at any sort of decent price. Finau has six top 10s in the last eight years at the Farmers Insurance Open. His ball striking stats are key to his success here and the American ranked second in ‘strokes gained: approach) last season. 

Will Zalatoris (20/1 with Betway) is also worth a look given he has a very similar game to Finau’s, but I’d like the price to be a little bit bigger. Keegan Bradley will also be much fancied this week. He owns a previous runner-up finish here along with three top fives in total and you can get 25s each way with BetMGM on the US Ryder Cup captain.

Jason Day has a fabulous record at Torrey Pines and Day has had a resurgence of late. Seven of Jason’s last 10 golf tournaments have seen the Aussie finish in the top 25 and most recently he was tied for third at The American Express. An improvement off the tee has turned Day’s game around. He has won the Farmers Insurance Open twice previously and has second, third and fifth-place finishes at Torrey Pines to back that up.

At Torrey Pines, as well as bombing it off the tee, a left-to-right shot shape is preferred and coming in high with approaches is vital to hit the right part of the segmented greens. Perhaps that’s why Sahith Theegala was fourth here in 2023. Theegala grabbed his maiden PGA Tour victory at the Fortinet Championship and he’s simmering form-wise now.

FIRST’s top tip for the Farmers Insurance Open

Tony Finau is a course specialist at Torrey Pines with a very strong course fit. Back him each way to win the tournament at 25/1 (six places) with Spreadex.

Extra tips

Two players in the same mould as Tony Finau whose games fit the Torrey Pines’ courses well are Jason Day and Sahith Theegala. Back them each way (six places), with Day at 30/1 with Spreadex and Theegala at 30/1 with BetMGM. 

Farmers Insurance Open: Value bets

I must give a nod to Stephan Jaeger who has put a lot of work into his game resulting in a win at the Texas Children’s Open and he has recorded second and third-place finishes since. The German had added significant length off the tee and was tied for third at the Farmers Insurance Open one year ago.

Also, Michael Kim is a local who grew up right beside Torrey Pines and he often does well here under the radar at big prices.

Jake Knapp won in Mexico in 2024, and he was another man tied for third at the Farmers Insurance Open last year shooting four rounds of 70 or better. Perhaps not a coincidence as the two venues give you room to open the shoulders off the tee box. Knapp warmed up nicely at The American Express despite missing the 54-hole cut where he closed with a 65 and the American ranked 24th in driving distance last year.

Kevin (Chun-an) Yu is the other man very much under the radar that I’m keen on for the Farmers Insurance Open. He finished tied sixth here at Torrey Pines last season and carded an opening round of 64 to become the first-round leader.

Yu won the Sanderson Farms Championship at the back end of 2024 and after putting some injury woes behind him, he looks like he may become a force on the PGA Tour. Yu is a powerful driver ranking 12th in ‘strokes gained: off the tee’ last year.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Farmers Insurance Open

I’m impressed with the work ethic of Stephan Jaeger who only narrowly missed out on winning the Sony Open two weeks ago. Jaeger has course form here and he is available at 60/1 (six places) with Spreadex. 

Kevin Yu demonstrated what his power can do over the North and South courses at Torrey Pines in 2024. I like him again this year at 80/1 (seven places) with Betway.

Jake Knapp is another powerful player who loves lengthy courses. His t3 last year proves that and I would like him onside this week at a big price of 250/1 (six places) with BetMGM.

Odds correct at time of writing.