Golf betting tips: Stars set to tee it up at the Dubai Desert Classic and American Express

The world of golf kicks into gear this week with full field events on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. 

Big names will be out in force at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour’s International swing, while on the other side of the pond, some of golf’s stars tee it up at The American Express (AMEX) on the PGA Tour. 

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Hero Dubai Desert Classic: Strong field lines up to take on the Majlis course

Rory McIlroy 4/1 (BetMGM) defends the Dubai Desert Classic after a dramatic collapse by Cameron Young here in 2024. Emirates GC was the scene of McIlroy’s first win of the 2024 season, and he’ll be looking to get off to a flyer again in 2025. The Northern Irishman will have plenty of big names to contend with in the first Rolex event of the season. Race to Dubai points on offer tally up to 8,000 while there is $9m (£7.43m) in the prize kitty.

It takes a strong all-round player to tame the Majlis course where the wind can get up, adding to the difficulty of the test. Players that are strong in the driving department usually thrive. Emirates GC (Majlis) will play over 7,400 yards to a par of 72 and winners down the years here include Tiger Woods, Sergio Garica, Viktor Hovland, Bryson DeChambeau and Paul Casey. 

Market leader McIlroy will be bidding to win the Dubai Desert Classic for the fifth time. He’s followed in the market by Jon Rahm at odds of 11/2 (Bet365). Tyrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood are third and fourth respectively in the betting.

Tommy Fleetwood was one of the star performers for Justin Rose’s Great Britain and Ireland side in the Team Cup win over Continental Europe. Fleetwood has strong form here in the desert too with seven top twenty finishes to his name at the Dubai Desert Classic.

Englishman, Tyrrell Hatton said: “I always enjoy coming to Dubai and the Emirates Golf Club. I’ve had success in the region in the past so I look forward to getting 2025 off to a strong start in the desert.” 

Hatton has three top four finishes at the Dubai Desert Classic and won his singles match in last week’s Team Cup, finishing the week unbeaten. 

Ashkay Bhatia will make his debut in the golf tournament. Bhatia said: “I can’t wait to tee it up in the Hero Dubai Desert Classic for the first time. I’ve heard a lot about the tournament and everything about the week in Dubai, and I’m looking forward to the experience.” 

The 22-year-old ranked 27th in ‘total driving’ on the PGA Tour last year.

Paul Waring lives in this part of the world and picked up a singles victory in the Team Cup. Laurie Canter thrashed Romain Langasque 5 & 4 to pick up the first point of the singles matches. Canter, with his power off the tee, may be one to watch at the Dubai Desert Classic. He won the European Open last year wielding the big stick.

FIRST’s top tips for the Dubai Desert Classic 

Tommy Fleetwood secured the winning point in last week’s Team Cup, opening his match with seven birdies in a row on his way to beating Matthieu Pavon. Back Fleetwood to win the tournament at 15/1 with Matchbook.

Ashkay Bhatia looks an intriguing prospect, and I expect him to have a good year in general. Back Bhatia each way (six places) at 33/1 with BetMGM. 

Laurie Canter looks the best value of the outsiders. Get him onside each way at (55/1 six places with BetMGM).

The American Express: Rookies to rain on stars’ parade?

There’s 500 FedEx Cup points on offer for the winner at the American Express and the purse is $8.8m (£7.27m). The three courses on the AMEX rotation (Nicklaus course, Stadium course, La Quinta CC) are averaging around 7,100 yards and they all play to a par of 72.

It was amateur Nick Dunlap (50/1 with BetMGM) who reigned supreme at The American Express in 2024 and this is an event that gives the lesser names a chance. Unfortunately for Dunlap, he did not get to keep the massive winner’s cheque as he was not a professional at the time. 

After a solid warm up at the Sony Open though, where Dunlap finished in the top ten, the 21-year-old comes into The American Express in good form ahead of his title defence. 

Dunlap said after shooting 60 at La Quinta CC to lead by three after 54 holes: “I made a lot of putts. The putter felt really good. I don’t think I missed anything I should have made.”

The putter will be key to success at the low scoring AMEX. The putting and ‘total birdie’ stats are key metrics this week, while hitting fairways and ‘proximity to the hole’ will be a priority.

Denny McCarthy ranked fourth in ‘strokes gained putting’ last year while he was first in total putting. McCarthy placed t16 at the Sony Open last week and looks like a great value play for the American Express.

Xander Schauffele leads the AMEX betting odds at 8/1 with BetMGM. Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns are also in the field but with the tournament being somewhat of a putting contest, that means it is wider open.

Maybe Eric Cole can take advantage of this. Cole was right in the thick of things during the Sony Open last week. Despite making double bogey early in his round on Sunday, Cole bounced back with four birdies in a row for a top five finish.

Last year at The American Express the man from the US was near the top of leaderboard after 54 holes but fell away with a score of level par on the final day. Cole ranked 43rd in ‘proximity to the hole’ on the PGA Tour in 2024 while he was 12th in ‘overall putting average’ and fourth in ‘total birdies’.

Brian Harman is another player who hits plenty of fairways and excels with the short irons and especially with the putter. Harman ranked 17th in approaches from 150-175 yards in 2024 and he was 22nd in ‘total putting’. The former Open championship winner recorded another top 25 finish at the Sony Open to go with several top 25s at the AMEX.

FIRST’s top tips for The American Express 

Eric Cole is amid a fine run of form as he bids for his maiden PGA Tour win. He has progressive form of 36-21 at the AMEX. Back Cole each way (six places) at 55/1 with BetMGM.

Nick Dunlap looks decent value to defend the title he won in La Quinta 12 months ago. You can find him at 49/1 with Matchbook him to win the tournament or 46/5 for the top five with Mr.Play.

Another great putter we want onside at strong odds of 55/1 (six places each way at BetMGM) is Brian Harman.

Odds correct at the time of writing.