ICC Champions Trophy betting tips: Outright preview & Pakistan vs New Zealand

Pakistan thrashed India by 150 runs at The Oval to win the 2017 ICC Champions Trophy and now, eight years later, we finally have the ninth edition of the tournament! 

The reigning champions are not only defending their title but are also hosting a global cricket competition for the first time since 1996. But due to political tensions, India will not be travelling to their near-neighbours, instead, all of their games will take place in the UAE.

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Across two groups followed by knockouts, eight teams will contest this tournament with Afghanistan qualifying for the first time. They, along with Bangladesh and England, will be looking for their maiden title in the competition.

That’s not to say that England should be ruled out as potential winners as since the last ICC Champions Trophy they have lifted the Cricket World Cup in 2019 and the T20 World Cup in 2022.

ICC Champions Trophy: The favourites

They may not be playing any of their games in Pakistan, but India are the favourites to win the final next month.

Perhaps this is due to their recent record in ICC competitions, winning last year’s T20 World Cup and finishing as runners-up in the 2023 Cricket World Cup. It could also be down to their fine form in ODIs, a format in which Rohit Sharma’s side have won 22 of their last 30 games.

India also come into the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy as the joint-most successful side in the history of the tournament, winning in 2002 and 2013.

Australia may have failed to get out of the group stage in each of the last two editions but they are the only other team to have won the competition twice. They are second favourites with the bookies and also beat India in the 2023 Cricket World Cup final. 

But securing a third success seems a tall order for the ‘Green and Gold’ who are without captain Pat Cummins, as well as their two other world-class pace bowlers in Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc. The team also suffered a 2-0 series loss against Sri Lanka last week, a side who have not even qualified for this tournament.

FIRST's top tips

India to win the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy - 6/4 with Mr.Play

After securing a 3-0 series clean-sweep over England in this format last week, India will arrive in Dubai with a spring in their step. And considering the first two of those victories were completed with 68 and 39 balls remaining before they won the third game by 142 runs, confidence will be very high!

India will not look too far ahead in the tournament but with Bangladesh, Pakistan and New Zealand their opponents in Group A, finishing in the top two and advancing should not be an issue.

Captain Rohit Sharma is one of a host of batters in fine form which includes Virat Kohli who hit a half-century last Wednesday, the same day that Shubman Gill became the fastest batter to cross 2,500 runs in this format. 

Although they will undoubtedly miss the accuracy of Jasprit Bumrah who has been ruled out due to a back injury, India have depth across their bowling department. 

It was Ravindra Jadeja who stole the show against England but Mohammed Shami looks back to his best and Kuldeep Yadav is another spinner capable of winning a game single-handedly.

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New Zealand to reach the final - 3/1 with Mr.Play

The ‘Black Caps’ won the ICC Champions Trophy in 2000 while also reaching the final in 2009. Consistently under-estimated across all formats, New Zealand have reached the semi-finals of the last four Cricket World Cups, twice making it to the final.

Captained by bowling all-rounder Mitchell Santner, they come into this tournament after excellent preparations in local conditions, winning all three of their games to be crowned as champions of the Pakistan Tri-Nation Series earlier this month!

In the experienced Kane Williamson, they have a batter who has done it all but is still hungry to perform at this level, as seen by his unbeaten century against South Africa last week. 

Glenn Phillips and Daryl Mitchell are other batters with big scores in Pakistan under their belts over the last seven days.

Matt Henry is in the form of his life and leads an exciting new-look pace attack which has moved on following the international retirements of Trent Boult and Tim Southee.

Pakistan vs New Zealand betting tips

2/1 - Matt Henry to be New Zealand’s top bowler

The right-arm quick exploded onto the international scene in 2014, picking up 3+ wickets in three of his opening six ODI appearances. 

Injuries and the emergence of other bowlers saw him fall down the New Zealand pecking order over the years but he is now the undisputed leader of the bowling attack.

The 33-year-old has gone wicketless in just 17 of his last 19 ODI matches and comes into this tournament opener with 14 wickets at an average of 14.64 in this format since the start of this year. 

His career strike rate sits at 29.3, but in 2025 he is taking wickets every 19.2 balls and he will be looking forward to bowling at Pakistan’s batters again after taking 3/53 earlier this month.

Key talking point: Rizwan and Agha to rescue Pakistan again?

If it had not been for Mohammad Rizwan and Salman Agha, then Pakistan would have struggled to make the final of the recent Tri-Nation Series, let alone to be competitive in the defeat against New Zealand.

The pair hit the second-highest ODI fourth-wicket partnership in their must-win game against South Africa in match three before once again rescuing their team-mates from a worrying 54/3 in the final.

Combined, the duo have scored over 58% of Pakistan’s runs across their last two games and will be crucial to their chances on Wednesday.

FIRST's top tips 

9/4 - Shaheen Shah Afridi to be Pakistan’s top bowler

Of bowlers playing in the tournament, the left-arm pacer is the highest-ranked quick and has failed to pick up a wicket in only one of his last 33 ODIs!

Plus, he has an excellent head-to-head record against New Zealand, averaging 2+ wickets across all contests in this format.

Odds correct at the time of writing.