Champions League betting tips: Quarter-finals second legs preview

As much as anything feels possible in the Champions League, the bookmakers are not inclined to agree when it comes to the quarter-finals this season.

All four first legs had winners, with each victor expected to advance to the semi-finals. If that proves correct we’ll have a final four from four different countries, but there’s still time for an upset yet. 

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With the probable exception of Borussia Dortmund, the other three clubs trying to overcome defeats look strong enough to do so. But actually doing so is where their problems start.

And even if the outcomes look settled in most cases, there are still bets to play and money to make.

Aston Villa vs Paris Saint-Germain betting tips

It’s reasonable to think Nuno Mendes’ 92nd minute goal in the first leg settled the tie. A one-goal deficit would’ve felt surmountable for Aston Villa but a 3-1 defeat is much harder to overcome.

There have been four Champions League instances in the last three seasons of a home team winning their first leg by two goals. Not only did they all qualify for the next round, they all won the second leg too. Understanding the strategy behind short-priced favourites could help you land a value play this week. 

Paris Saint-Germain enjoyed the most recent example, beating Real Sociedad 2-1 last season after a 2-0 victory in the Parc des Princes. 

They have won their previous 16 away games in all competitions, a run which includes Champions League victories at Salzburg, Stuttgart, Brest and Liverpool.

Aston Villa will justifiably feel they are better than all but the last of those sides. They have also won four and drawn one of their European home games this term, most notably defeating Bayern Munich. 

But it’s hard to see Villa keeping PSG at bay which they will surely need to if they are to win the tie. Again, some of the opposition has been relatively weak, but Luis Enrique’s side have scored at least four goals in four of their previous five away games. 

Allied to the sort of strong defensive performance which they delivered at Anfield recently, PSG appear to have decent value to win this match on their way to the semi-finals.

Scoreline prediction

Aston Villa 1-2 PSG (15/2 with Vegasland)

FIRST’s top tip:

PSG win (17/16 with Monster)

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona betting tips

It’s near impossible to predict what will occur in the second leg of a tie which is as dead as this one. 

Two goals from Robert Lewandowski plus one each from Raphinha and Lamine Yamal gave Barcelona a commanding 4-0 win last week. What a front three.

The visitors will likely play in a relaxed manner which should aid Dortmund, but how committed will they be when faced with a seemingly impossible task? 

Perhaps history is our best guide. Since 2011, there have been seven Champions League first legs which the home side won by at least four goals. Barcelona know about the most remarkable comeback, as they avenged a 4-0 loss at PSG to progress 6-5 on aggregate in 2017.

But in five of the other six examples, the first leg winner won the return match too. With Barca’s recent record on the road as strong as it is, that feels the likeliest outcome here.

Hansi Flick’s men have won their previous eight away matches in all competitions, winning 13 and drawing two of their last 15. 

The longer run includes a 3-2 Barcelona victory in Dortmund during the league phase. There’s just about enough value in backing them to win in Germany once again. 

Scoreline prediction

Borussia Dortmund 1-2 Barcelona (13/2 with Bet442)

FIRST’s top tip:

Barcelona win (4/5 with Zetbet)

Inter vs Bayern Munich betting tips

Bayern Munich face what looks a near impossible task, even though they only lost the first leg 2-1.

Inter’s two home defeats this season both came against city rivals AC Milan, with whom they share the stadium anyway. No true visitor has yet triumphed there in 2024/25.

Since away goals were abolished, away teams winning the first leg by one goal have advanced six times out of eight. 

Bayern’s quality means they can of course overturn the narrowest of deficits but their away form in the toughest games this season does not inspire confidence. 

They have beaten none of the other top five Bundesliga sides on the road. In the Champions League, they have lost at Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord. 

As such, it’s hard to see them beating a team with a formidable defensive record. You can envisage Bayern scoring, just not keeping a clean sheet to go with it. 

Inter should complete their task. 

Scoreline prediction

Inter 2-1 Bayern Munich (9/1 with Spreadex)

FIRST’s top tip:

Draw no bet: Inter Milan (10/11 with Ladbrokes)

Real Madrid vs Arsenal betting tips

Arsenal are a very strange team this season. They haven’t scored three goals at home against any Premier League team currently between sixth and 18th but they managed that in 17 second half minutes against the kings of Europe in the first leg. 

Even Real Madrid’s legendary powers of recovery in this competition won’t be strong enough here. 

When they twice recovered from first leg losses on the road in 2022, it was after being beaten by just one. In both instances their second leg victories were 3-1, which won’t be enough here either. 

People will think that if any team could possibly pull this out of the bag, it would be Real. 

But they were beaten 4-0 at home by Barcelona earlier this season, while city rivals Atletico got a 1-1 draw in La Liga (before only losing 2-1 in this competition).

The underlying numbers, which take no account of the tie score, suggest Arsenal should be odds-on favourites to win this match. 

If that feels a stretch, there remains value in backing them to avoid defeat, especially considering their defensive fortitude. 

Scoreline prediction

Real Madrid 1-1 Arsenal (13/2 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Double chance: Arsenal or draw (23/20 with Coral)

Odds correct at the time of writing.