Champions League betting tips: Quarter-finals first legs preview

We’re down to eight clubs who can win the 2024/25 Champions League. The bookmakers are undecided on who they believe is the favourite.

Most side with Barcelona, though some have Paris Saint-Germain narrowly ahead of them. Either way, Real Madrid are tucked in behind that pair, with Bayern Munich the other team who are expected to qualify for the semi-finals.

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It’s been a new-look format this year but one that for many has breathed new life into the competition. As the sides they will face all come from one of the continent’s top five leagues, don’t rule anybody out just yet. 

Fresh from nailing his Premier League gameweek 31 tips, our man Andrew Beasley gives his top tips for the latest Champions League week. 

Arsenal vs Real Madrid betting tips

Our first tie features two teams who should finish in the top two of their respective leagues this season and is one of our feature betting matches in this week’s Champions League.

Yet Arsenal have never been kings of Europe whereas Real Madrid have won this competition far more times than any other club. 

Friendlies aside, the teams have not met since 2006, when the Gunners knocked out Real on their way to their only previous appearance in the final. It’s impossible to see the La Liga giant failing to score as they did in that tie.

Keeping the match tight will clearly be Arsenal’s aim. Even with their injury problems at the back, the defence remains their strongest aspect. 

Mikel Arteta’s men kept clean sheets in all four home games in the league phase, and although PSV Eindhoven scored twice in the last round, it was utterly irrelevant as the Gunners had won 7-1 in the first leg.

The problem for Arsenal is that Real Madrid usually bring chaos to matches of this nature, which you can never truly measure. Five of their previous six away first legs in the Champions League saw both teams score and at least four goals.

Four of these games were in England: 2-3 and 4-3 at Manchester City, 2-5 at Liverpool and 1-3 at Chelsea. Try as they might to keep the scoring low, Arsenal will do very well to overcome that level of action.

Scoreline prediction

Arsenal 1-2 Real Madrid (9/1 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 2.5 goals (5/4 with BetMGM)

Bayern Munich vs Inter betting tips

Bayern Munich and Inter last clashed in the old-style group stage in 2022, with the Bundesliga side winning both matches 2-0. 

Strangely enough, that was the scoreline in Inter’s favour on the three occasions they played a Champions League first leg on the road in the last three seasons. It will be tougher to repeat that here than it was against the likes of Benfica and Feyenoord, of course.

But far from impossible. Simon Inzaghi’s men have only conceded one away goal in this competition this season, a 90th minute winner for Bayer Leverkusen. 

While Bayern Munich have been pretty good results-wise at home in Europe in 2024/25, they have had a few issues. Dinamo Zagreb and Slovan Bratislava both scored at the Allianz Arena before Celtic came within seconds of a famous win. 

Granted, Leverkusen were brushed aside in the last round but that was largely through Xabi Alonso’s side self-destructing. 

Inter are too wily to do that. With Bayern having won none of their last four home first legs in the Champions League quarter or semi-finals, the Serie A visitors can return home with a positive result. 

Scoreline prediction

Bayern Munich 1-1 Inter (5/1 with Zetbet)

FIRST’s top tip:

Double chance: Inter Milan or draw (41/50 with BetMGM)

Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips

This tie is unusual in the recent history of Barcelona, as they last had a first leg at home in the Champions League four years ago. Dortmund, by contrast, have been away on three occasions within the last two seasons and they got through to the next round each time.

In terms of predicting the outcome here, it doesn’t help that Dortmund’s record across those fixtures was split one each for win, draw and lose. However, we have a head-to-head match to consider from earlier this season.

And it was a cracker. Barcelona led three times in Germany in a match which finally ended 3-2 in their favour. If not a wildly unjust result on the underlying numbers, Dortmund edged the expected goals by 0.7 and the big chances by five to four. 

Their recent away form has been erratic, featuring mostly low scoring games. A 2-0 win here, a couple of 2-0 losses there, and so on.

With Barcelona involved, though, expect goals and lots of them. Their home games in this competition have featured an average of 4.2 this season, with fewer than four only once (against Brest). Another 3-2 between these teams is far from out of the question. 

Scoreline prediction

Barcelona 3-1 Dortmund (9/1 with Spreadex)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 3.5 goals (11/10 with Coral)

Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa betting tips

As one-sided as this match up potentially looks, both clubs are in fantastic form. Aston Villa have won their previous four away games in all competitions, keeping clean sheets in the previous three. 

And even though Paris Saint-Germain were beaten at home by Liverpool in the round of 16, that was a game in which they outshot the Reds 27-2.

The fact they did hints at the size of the challenge facing Villa. PSG have averaged 24.5 shots per game at the Parc des Princes in the Champions League this term, hitting at least 20 every time. 

Read: PSG vs Aston Villa match betting tips 

It’s remarkable with that level of offence that they only scored more than one goal in two of the six matches.

As Villa are without an opposition shut out in their last four European away games, none of which were against elite clubs, it’s reasonable to assume PSG will be okay here. 

Their first leg home matches in Champions League quarter-finals have always been high-scoring, so this should be very entertaining.

Unless you’re an Aston Villa fan, that is.

Scoreline prediction

Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Aston Villa (41/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Paris Saint-Germain win and over 2.5 goals (4/5 with Bet442)

Odds correct at the time of writing.