Double jeopardy? How the new format breathed fresh life into Champions League

More teams, more games, more drama. The new Champions League format was a shock to the system for most – unless you’ve been religiously playing the last two Football Manager games (guilty). The group stage had become stale, predictable and heavily weighted towards the big clubs – so UEFA ripped up the playbook and replaced it with a single-league phase.

It’s certainly injected fresh life into the competition – just look at the final day’s 64-goal, 18-game spectacle. UEFA promised more glamour fixtures early on while also giving lower-ranked teams more chances to play each other. But has it actually levelled the playing field, or are the usual suspects still dominating?

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Let's break down the biggest winners and losers of the new format so far.

Did the top clubs struggle?

Going into last season's final game of the group stage, 13 teams had already secured their last 16 spots. This time, just two had. And of those Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Manchester City – who have all either won or reached the final in the last five years – now found themselves at risk of elimination.

UEFA promised more jeopardy, and they delivered. A staggering 27 teams still had something to play for on the final day.

It didn’t work out well for AC Milan, though. The seven-time champions needed just a win at home to secure a top-eight finish but were beaten by Dinamo Zagreb—a team that needed all three points themselves. 

Zagreb ultimately missed out on the play-offs, but their fight to the end is proof that the new format has made things more competitive. In previous years, they might have rolled over with no hope of progressing.

At the same time, the new structure still provides a safety net for big clubs, best illustrated by Manchester City. They won fewer than half of their games, beating Sparta Prague (35th), Slovan Bratislava (31st) and Club Brugge (24th). 

You could argue City don’t deserve to go through, but the expanded format let them survive at the last moment. Their lower seeding now means a brutal play-off draw against Real Madrid awaits. 

In the one obvious glamour tie of the play-off round, City are 9/10 to qualify over the two legs, while Madrid are chalked up at 4/5 with BetMGM.

For the elite clubs, it’s been a mixed bag. Of the nine teams in Pot 1, only RB Leipzig failed to reach at least the play-offs, yet only three secured a top-eight finish. That means five seeded teams had to rely on the play-offs. And with no safety net of dropping into the Europa League this time round, the stakes are even higher.

Did smaller clubs thrive?

In short, yes.

Pot 4 teams are proof enough. Aston Villa, Brest and AS Monaco have all made it through to the knockouts in some shape or form. 

Under the old format, only three Pot 4 teams managed that feat in the previous four years combined. Villa even secured direct passage to the last 16, while Brest and Monaco were incentivised to remain competitive until the very end.

The story of Celtic also highlights the shift. In the past two seasons, they won just one of their 12 group-stage matches and finished bottom each time. 

This year, they defeated Slovan Bratislava and Leipzig and held Atalanta in their first four games, ending up one place above Manchester City. They are 9/1 with BetMGM to qualify for the last 16 after drawing Bayern Munich in the play-off round. 

But Champions League debutants Brest are the real success story. Despite facing giants like Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayer Leverkusen, they still managed to secure wins over Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Sparta Prague and PSV to finish 18th.

Their play-off tie will see them do battle with a familiar foe in compatriots PSG. BetMGM have chalked them up at 7/1 to qualify, with the Parisiens heavy favourites at 1/20. 

The promise of 'every game counts' wasn't necessarily true for all clubs though. Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava both lost their first seven games and were eliminated early, while Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg all had nothing to play for on the final day.

It remains to be seen whether this format truly benefits smaller teams in the long run. While they've lasted longer than they might have normally, they'll likely take on stronger opponents in a two-legged play-off. 

Of the eight teams from ninth to 16th, only one of them came from outside Pot 1 or 2. From 17th to 24th, only City, Club Brugge and Juventus come from the top two pots.

Will the knockouts be just as unpredictable?

Absolutely. The last 16 draw won’t feel like a free pass for anyone. Many of the top eight finishers haven’t been rewarded.

Liverpool or Barcelona could get a potential banana-skin tie against PSG, despite finishing in the top two, while Arsenal or Inter Milan could face Serie A heavyweights AC Milan or Juventus - despite finishing third and fourth.

Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen arguably got the worst deal, with a potential clash against one of Bayern Munich, Manchester City, or Real Madrid. 

Lille and Aston Villa have an arguably easier path despite finishing lower, with Borussia Dortmund, Atalanta, Sporting or Club Brugge next.

Liverpool boss Arne Slot summed it up perfectly: "If in tennis you are number one seeded you know it’s always better to face the number 24 than to face the number eight or the number 12, because this is a ranking that is done for years. But now we are in a new format where some teams are high in the league table because they had a lucky draw, or some teams are low because they had a very difficult draw."

The Champions League has never felt so unpredictable – and for now, that might just be a win for everyone.

Champions League outright odds (via BetMGM) - correct at the time of publishing