CONMEBOL Connection: Palmeiras to march into the Club World Cup quarter-finals

South American expert Nathan Joyes returns with four more selections, ranging from the Club World Cup all Brazilian affair to the depths of Ecuador and Uruguay. 

Find out what he fancies as South American football continues throughout the summer.

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Palmeiras vs Botafogo: Palmeiras to qualify at 4/6

It may have been Botafogo that stole the headlines having beaten PSG in Group B, but Abel Ferreira’s Palmeiras quietly went about their business in Group A. 

Despite their team of superstars, the Portuguese head coach knows how to win. It may not always be pretty, but he has his settled side well drilled - but they have the players capable of turning the screw when required.

Botafogo have been tested more than Palmeiras - and perhaps that will have an impact on the squad ahead of this tie. 

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But Verdao have talented individuals in every position, as well as strength in depth on the bench, and that might just be the difference required to get over the line in the round of 16.

This match will be won with a moment of magic, and Estevao, Paulinho, Flaco Lopez and Facundo Torres all have that within them. Palmeiras can pinch a spot in the last eight.

Universidad Catolica vs Independiente del Valle: BTTS Yes at 5/6

Over in Ecuador, the title race is heating up. Independiente del Valle are still leading the pack, but LDU Quito are hot on their heels. 

Having drawn their last three matches, it’s not 12 matches without a clean sheet for Independiente del Valle - something needs to change if they are to hang onto top spot.

They make the short trip across Quito this weekend to face Universidad Catolica - a side that has been very strong in front of their own fans - picking up 15 points from a possible 21. 

Having scored in every home match, including at least two in each of their last five domestic matches, the hosts will fancy their chances of a mini upset.

However, in those five matches, they’ve only kept a clean sheet once, and four of their last five meetings at home against Independiente del Valle have produced plenty of goals - and have seen both teams find the back of the net. This one will be no different.

Penarol vs Cerro: Penarol and under 4.5 goals at 5/6 

Penarol are a team that rarely loses at home. In fact, they head into this clash against Cerro nine unbeaten in front of their supporters (W8 D1) and a win will guarantee top spot and into the play-off final.

Yet they are also a side where their scorelines rarely get out of control on home soil. Only three of their nine matches produced over three goals - but it’s worth noting that one came against a lowly ranked team and another was in the Copa Libertadores. 

Domestically, they are a tough team to crack while they have enough quality to dominate in Uruguay.

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Cerro haven’t won on the road since February. Since, they have failed to win any of their 10 matches on their travels (D5 L5). They managed to hold Boston River and Liverpool to 0-0 draws, but fell short against Defensor Sporting - all three weaker than Penarol.

The hosts have individual talents including Leonardo Fernandez that can win this match on his own, but with just a win on their minds, the hosts can put in a professional performance and grab the three points required to finish top.

Chapocoense vs Goias: Chapocoense draw no bet at 8/11

Our final pick sees us finish in Brazil’s second division. Goias may be top of the table but they have lost their last two matches - including a 2-1 defeat at home against 18th placed Athletic Club on Tuesday - their first defeat at home this season.

But it has been coming. They did beat Remo 2-0 a couple of weeks ago - but the hosts were not in control of that match - and were fortunate to win. Their luck, perhaps, is running out.

And they now travel to Chapeco to face a side that has won their last five home matches beating the likes of Athletic Club, Criciuma and Cuiaba. 

Having scored 12 goals in six home games, only conceding five, this is going to be a real test for Goias - who haven’t been at their best for a few weeks now.

The visitors are the favourites to win the match, but that’s purely based on their league position. The form is very much with Chapocoense at the moment - and it’s best to stick with them on the draw no bet market.

CONMEBOL connection acca overall odds: 8/1 (Betway)

Previous matches

FIRST's top tips and predictions

Paraguay vs Uruguay - BTTS NO at 7/11

Argentina to beat Chile at 7/10

Venezuela -1 asian handicap against Bolivia at 7/10

Cuiaba to beat Paysandu at 8/11

Friday - 12AM - Paraguay vs Uruguay - BTTS NO at 7/11

Paraguay have missed out on the last three World Cups but they’ve not looked back since the appointment of Gustavo Alfaro post Copa America. 

Undefeated under his leadership (W4 D4), Alfaro has built a side that is proving impossible to beat - especially on home soil. 

Wins to nil against Brazil and Chile, as well as defeating Venezuela and Argentina, have propelled Paraguay into a promising position - and a win could see them jump into 2nd spot if results go their way.

Post Copa America, there’s been a downturn in results for Uruguay. With just one win from eight matches, La Celeste have fallen off a cliff. Three 0-0 draws against Paraguay, Venezuela and Bolivia have followed, while a 1-0 defeat against Peru in Lima was incredibly worrying.

To make matters worse, key players are missing for Marcelo Bielsa’s side. Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde is absent due to injury, while Darwin Nunez is suspended and unavailable for La Celeste’s next two fixtures.

Paraguay have only conceded three goals at home - and with the reverse fixture ending 0-0, this one might just end up the same.

Friday - 2AM - Argentina to beat Chile at 7/10

Table toppers Argentina head to Santiago having already qualified for the World Cup - but Lionel Scaloni doesn’t let his team slack off - which is why the defending champions are eight points clear of Ecuador at the top of qualifying.

Their price is rather generous due to key absences, including Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister - but even without their two central midfielders, there’s plenty of talent in reserve to beat one of the weakest Chilean sides in recent history.

All eyes will be on River Plate’s Franco Mastantuno (17) who is in line to make his debut, and Chile’s ageing back line could be in for a tough evening having to manage him, Julian Alvarez, Lionel Messi and company.

The hosts sit rock bottom and must win if they are to have any chance of reaching the World Cup next summer. 

However, having lost at home to Bolivia, and with no real talent coming through, it will be a miracle if they beat Argentina in round 15.

Friday - 11PM - Venezuela -1 asian handicap against Bolivia at 7/10

The nation sitting in the play-off spot is Venezuela - the only one in the table that has yet to make it to a World Cup. And although 6th place looks a little out of reach, a win against Bolivia would put some breathing room between them and the chasing pack.

And there’s no reason why they can’t record a convincing win in Caracas. Admittedly, they aren’t big hitters having scored just seven in as many games at home, but they’ve been rock solid defensively, conceding just twice.

They’ve held both Argentina and Brazil in previous rounds, while beating Paraguay, Venezuela and Chile to nil. With Salomon Rondon, Jefferson Savarino, and Yangel Herrera in their starting XI, they will have too much for Bolivia.

The visitors don’t perform away well from their high altitude. In fact, they’ve lost seven of their eight away matches, conceding 23 goals in seven matches - while scoring just four. 

Conceding over 3.2 goals per game is far from ideal, and Venezuela can take a massive step in the right direction to secure their first ever World Cup spot.

Saturday - 1:35AM - Cuiaba to beat Paysandu at 8/11

We finish our bi-weekly South American tour in Brazil’s Serie B, where Cuiaba face 20th placed Paysandu. The visitors have picked up just four points from a possible 30, and head into this fixture on the back of three defeats, conceding eight goals in the process.

Cuiaba, recently relegated from Brazil’s Serie A, are sat in 4th, and are in the hunt for immediate promotion back to the top flight. 

Although key players left, the club had the budget to replace them and keep them extremely competitive at this level.

At home, they’ve beaten league favourites Athletico PR, play-off contenders Ferroviária and Vila Nova in recent weeks - three sides far stronger than Serie B’s current worst team.

To make matters worse for the visitors, Andre Lima is suspended for the match, who’s arguably their best midfielder. Expect Cuiaba to take full advantage this weekend.

FIRST’s CONMEBOL acca overall odds: 7/1 (Betway)

Odds correct at the time of writing.

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