CONMEBOL Connection: Vulnerable defences at the heart of our selections

Our South American expert is back to take us on another journey across the continent for his best selections. 

From a title race in Peru to a sinking ship in Brazil, Nathan Joyes provides four tips worth jumping on this weekend.

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Universitario to beat Sporting Cristal @ 4/5 (Friday 3AM)

An intriguing encounter in Peru is set to take place overnight on Friday - and whoever wins may see them win the Apertura. The only team that can stop them is Melgar in 2nd place, but they face Alianza Huanuco away from home - and nothing is ever simple when on the road in Peru.

As Sporting Cristal may find out. Considering the club has ongoing political issues, where fans have boycotted matches this campaign in order to protest against the ownership, the players have performed well on the pitch.

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However, their away form has let them down, picking up just seven points from a possible 18. Universitario are always solid at home, and having won five of their six matches, scoring 20 goals, they’ve shown why they are the reigning champions.

A huge 4-1 win against Melgar was backed up with a 6-0 romp over Cajamarca, and after beating Ecuadorian outfit Barcelona last time out at home, they’ll be confident they can give Melgar something to think about on Friday evening.

Independiente vs Huracan under 2.5 goals @ 1/2 (Saturday 22:30PM)

No one likes a short price but there has to be one within a four fold and this tight contest in Argentina could provide us with a winning leg.

This is the semi-final in Argentina’s Apertura competition, and with plenty at stake, a low scoring affair looks on the cards. Independiente edged past Boca 1-0 at La Bombonera, recording their third 1-0 win in a row - their defence led by Kevin Lomonaco looks rock solid.

Huracan are at this stage of the competition thanks to a narrow 1- victory against Rosario - also away from home - a side not intimidated when travelling and playing in front of none of their own fans.

What stands out is their last five head-to-heads have all produced under 2.5 goals - and the last four have all produced just one goal. This isn’t a fixture known for goals and with a place in the final on the line - and with no extra-time in this competition - we can once again witness a low-scoring affair.

Internacional draw no bet vs Sport Recife @ 9/10 (Sunday 20:00PM)

Sport Recife head into this encounter having lost seven of their nine league matches since returning to Serie A - and have yet to pick up a win. After a 4-0 home defeat against Cruzeiro and 2-0 loss against Ceara, it’s looking rather desperate for the recently promoted side already.

Attendances have dropped from a sell-out against Palmeiras to less than half, as fans moan about the current ticket prices while their team fails to turn up every week. Having scored just four goals - no one in the league has scored less - and only one team (Juventude) has conceded more.

Internacional have yet to win away from home, but they’ve secured solid draws against Flamengo, Fortaleza and arch-rivals Gremio - and they won’t get a better opportunity to secure their first three points on the road.

A win on the road against Nacional in the Copa Libertadores may be the confidence boost Inter need - and with the likes of Rafael Borre, Enner Valencia and Alan Patrick leading the attack, there’s too much quality for them to not win this match.

Vitoria to beat Santos @ 6/5 (Sunday 22:30PM)

Two teams tussling at the wrong end of the table lock horns on Sunday, both with the chance to stretch away or out of the bottom four. However, the hosts look most likely to claim the three points for a couple of different reasons.

Vitoria have won seven of their nine points at home. They’ve only suffered one defeat, and as that came against title contenders Flamengo, it’s easy to forgive them for that loss.

They aren’t facing anyone quite on Flamengo’s level this weekend. Instead, a weary, Neymar-less side arrive completely out of form on their travels. Having lost five away games on the spin, the recently promoted side are struggling to cope back in the top flight.

The key part to this selection is that Santos are without two of their starting defenders. Ze Ivaldo misses out due to his suspension, as does Gonzalo Escobar for his red card against Corinthians. Santos don’t have adequate replacements to patch up a defence that is already struggling.

Vitoria have impressed most at home - as they did last campaign - and they can punish Santos who have no answers away from home.

FIRST’s CONMEBOL acca overall odds: 10/1 (Betway)

Odds correct at the time of writing.