England vs Ireland betting tips and predictions: Harry Kane to prove Lee Carsley wrong

By Andrew Beasley

England state of play

England have lost three of their last five matches at Wembley, more than they did (in 90 minutes) in Gareth Southgate’s first 39 games at the national stadium. And although they are 59 places above Republic of Ireland in the FIFA rankings, the gap in ranking was wider against Iceland who beat the Three Lions on their own pitch in June.

Nonetheless, England are rightfully short-priced favourites to win. Since the start of the Southgate era, they have won all but four of the 25 matches they’ve played against teams 60th or lower in the rankings. If the patched-up nature of the squad means Lee Carsley’s side are unlikely to be quite at their best, Harry Kane will presumably start with a point to prove having been benched in Greece on Thursday.

Republic of Ireland state of play

Scoring goals is Republic of Ireland’s primary problem. In 2024, they have drawn a blank against Belgium, Switzerland, Portugal, England and Greece (twice). While they beat Finland 2-1 last month and 1-0 on Thursday, this is a substantially tougher challenge. 

In most recent games (aside from against the Finns) they’ve taken a maximum of eight shots and had just four; even when beating Hungary 2-1 in June. The defence isn’t too much better, with Ireland’s only clean sheets in their last 10 away games coming against minnows Malta and Gibraltar. It feels like it will take a miracle for them to get a positive result at Wembley. 

Key talking point: Can England’s young guns displace the established stars?

Against Greece at Wembley, England started with the likes of Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka in their side. The performance was disastrous, with the Three Lions lucky to only lose 2-1.

While injuries forced Carsley’s hand to some extent for the return match, on Thursday, the England boss took the brave call to leave Kane out of a must-win game. Within eight minutes, his replacement Ollie Watkins had scored after great work by Noni Madueke. 

Morgan Gibbs-White then assisted a wonderful backheeled goal for debutant Curtis Jones shortly before full time. The 3-0 result was England’s largest away win against a nation in the top 50 of the FIFA rankings for over three years. 

Incoming England manager Thomas Tuchel will have watched the match with great interest. He won’t have the same attachment to most of the youngsters as Carsley, who worked with them to win the under-21 European Championship. But he will also have no pre-existing relationship with many of the established stars either. 

The quality of performance in Athens will make it very difficult for the understudies to step back from the main stage. 

FIRST’s top tip for England vs Republic of Ireland

Noni Madueke to score or assist (11/10 with Paddy Power)

Despite only playing 65 minutes against Greece on Thursday, Madueke was England’s top player for chances created and joint-first for both shots and efforts on target. Having assisted Watkins, he can continue that with a goal contribution against Republic of Ireland. 

Extra tips

England to win to nil (3/4 with Matchbook)

Ireland’s shot-shy attack will enable Jordan Pickford to keep a clean sheet. 

Under 9.5 Corners (Evens with Unibet)

There were just five corners when these teams last met, fewer than 11 in 13 of England’s last 16 games at Wembley. 

Asian Handicap, England -2.5 (83/50 with Mr.Play)

England won their last home meeting with Republic of Ireland 3-0 and will be confident after recording that score line in Greece the last time out.

Team news

Carsley selected a 26-man squad, saw eight players drop out, then picked five replacements only for one of them (Jarrad Branthwaite) to also need to be replaced. The interim manager will likely stick close to the team which played Greece here.

Ireland boss Heimir Hallgrímsson used four different starting formations across his first four games in charge. However, he has used a 4-4-2 for the last two matches, so has presumably settled upon that going forward. 

England vs Republic of Ireland predicted line-ups

England: Pickford; Walker, Konsa, Guehi, Lewis; Gallagher, Jones; Madueke, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane (4-2-3-1)

Republic of Ireland: Kelleher; O’Shea, Collins, Scales, O’Dowda; Ebosele, Cullen, Knight, Manning; Ferguson, Szmodics (4-4-2)