Premier League betting tips: Matchweek 12 preview

With the final international break of 2024 in the rearview mirror, Premier League clubs can focus on the run between now and Christmas. 

Liverpool have a five-point lead at the top and will be confident of maintaining that against bottom-side Southampton. The weekend's big match sees Manchester City host Tottenham, while Arsenal against Nottingham Forest is a clash between the sides sitting fourth and fifth in the table. In the big Monday night fixture, Newcastle host West Ham at St. James' Park. 

Leicester vs Chelsea betting tips

Leicester’s record against teams in the bottom half of the table is keeping them afloat. Starting the weekend, they have played four games against clubs in the top nine and have lost all of them.

However, they did score each time, suggesting they can pose Chelsea problems, particularly as the visitors have kept just two clean sheets in the 2024/25 Premier League campaign. With the Blues having already won 3-0 at West Ham and 6-2 at Wolves this season, an away win with at least two goals is likely. 

Scoreline prediction

Leicester 1-2 Chelsea (9/1 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Chelsea win and over 2.5 goals (23/25 with MrPlay)

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest betting tips

While a six-game form table is entirely arbitrary, it makes much better reading for Nottingham Forest (in third) than it does for Arsenal (11th). Having won at Anfield and drawn at Stamford Bridge, a trip to the Emirates Stadium will not faze Nuno Espirito Santo’s men.

As Leicester and Southampton have scored there, perhaps it shouldn’t. Arsenal have 15 victories from 17 home matches, the only game an 11-man Arsenal side haven’t won at home this season was against Liverpool. On home turf, the Gunners usually get the job done in the end. 

Scoreline prediction

Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest (17/2 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Arsenal win and both teams to score (5/2 with Skybet)

Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace betting tips

Crystal Palace recently won 2-1 at Villa Park in the Carabao Cup. Aston Villa will be gunning for revenge and by fielding a stronger side, they’ll likely get it.

While this fixture ended 3-1 last season, Villa’s four previous home wins over the Eagles saw them keep a clean sheet. It’s not generally a happy hunting ground for the south Londoners. 

As only Brentford and Southampton have scored fewer away goals than Palace this season, Unai Emery’s side will rarely get a better opportunity to collect a first home win of the Premier League season without conceding.

Scoreline prediction

Aston Villa 2-0 Crystal Palace (131/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Aston Villa win to nil (2/1 with Matchbook)

Bournemouth vs Brighton betting tips

This is a head-to-head which has usually favoured whichever club is playing at home. Only one of the last six meetings has ended in an away win, with no draw in the last nine.

As both sides have recently beaten Manchester City, they will be brimming with confidence. Bournemouth have also toppled Arsenal at the Vitality Stadium, though, and the underlying data for this season suggests they deserve to be third in the Premier League. 

With strong form and expected goal stats to back it up, the Cherries should prevail here. 

Scoreline prediction

Bournemouth 2-1 Brighton (19/2 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Bournemouth win (11/8 with William Hill)

Everton vs Brentford betting tips

A meeting of Everton and Brentford pitches dour against entertaining. The Bees lead the Premier League for total goals, with 44 scored and conceded combined in their 11 matches, while Sean Dyche’s Everton side are joint-fifth bottom of these standings.

As the previous two Goodison Park clashes ended in 1-0 Everton wins, could we be set for a hat-trick? It’s possible, but the power of goals and chaos is following Brentford around this season. 

Only at Liverpool have they failed to score, with their clean sheet total currently standing at zero. Expect goals in this game. 

Scoreline prediction

Everton 1-2 Brentford (171/20 with MrPlay)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (11/10 with bet365)

Fulham vs Wolves betting tips

Expected points data will tell you that Fulham have been the second-best team in the 2024/25 Premier League, behind Liverpool. They have amassed more xG [expected goals] than all five visitors to Craven Cottage so far this season.

With Wolves yet to win the xG on the road, Marco Silva’s side look set to dominate the match. The odds reflect this, so a handicap will add value. 

No side outside the ‘big six’ have won more games by two or more goals than Fulham, while only Southampton have lost by that margin more frequently than Wolves. 

Scoreline prediction

Fulham 3-1 Wolves (14/1 with William Hill)

FIRST’s top tip:

Fulham to win -1 (173/100 with Mr.Play)

Manchester City vs Tottenham betting tips

Tottenham recently knocked Manchester City out of the Carabao Cup and have given them problems on numerous occasions over the years. No club can top their tally of eight wins against the Citizens in the Pep Guardiola era.

Even so, while Spurs are reliably erratic. It remains a big ask for a side which was beaten by Ipswich last time out to get something here, even with City on a poor run themselves. Tottenham have scored at least twice in their last three games at the Etihad Stadium, so expect to see goals at both ends. 

Scoreline prediction

Manchester City 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur (23/2 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Manchester City win and both teams to score (141/100 with Mr.Play)

Southampton vs Liverpool betting tips

The last 14 Premier League matches between teams at the top and bottom of the table have seen 12 wins and two draws for the league leaders. With Manchester City lying in wait for Liverpool next weekend, anything less than three points for the visitors will be unacceptable. 

There’s no reason to think the Reds won’t get them. Mohamed Salah is in electric form and didn’t play for Egypt during the international break. By not playing until Sunday, Liverpool’s South American contingent stand a better chance of being involved too. 

With three of their four away wins secured to nil, it’s hard to see how Southampton hurt the Reds.

Scoreline prediction

Southampton 0-2 Liverpool (7/1 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Liverpool win to nil (13/10 with BetVictor)

Ipswich vs Manchester United betting tips

The Ruben Amorim era starts here, with a game against a side managed by former Manchester United coach Kieran McKenna. 

Ipswich will be in a confident mood, having won at Tottenham in their last match. They have also drawn at home with Fulham and Aston Villa, two sides who have been better than United to this point. 

It’s hard to know how the Red Devils will perform. The gloom from the end of Erik ten Hag’s tenure has lifted, but United are winless in five on the road. A bet on goals rather than the result feels safest.

Scoreline prediction

Ipswich Town 1-2 Manchester United (131/20 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 Goals (19/20 with Ladbrokes)

Newcastle vs West Ham betting tips

Monday night football takes us to St James’ Park. Newcastle and West Ham shared 11 goals in their two meetings last season so can we expect a similar level of entertainment?

The form book suggests not. None of the Magpies’ last four home games have seen either both teams score or more than two goals. There has been more action in the Hammers’ away matches but that could have been by accident rather than manager Julen Lopetegui’s design. 

With under 2.5 goals having been the outcome in three of Newcastle’s four games against bottom-half sides, this match should be tight. 

Scoreline prediction

Newcastle 2-0 West Ham (42/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Under 2.5 goals (6/4 with BetMGM)

Odds correct at the time of writing.