Premier League betting tips: Matchweek 16 preview

Matchweek 16 of the 2024/25 Premier League season contains some intriguing match-ups. Only one of the current top four won their last match, there’s a clash between two of the bottom three and we have derbies in Manchester, west London and along the M23 to contend with. 

With league leaders Liverpool not playing last weekend, their advantage at the top was cut. Will it be even shorter by the end of this weekend?

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Manchester City vs Manchester United betting tips

The excitement in the Manchester derby seems to be determined by which stadium it is being held. 

One team (usually Manchester United) has failed to score in five of the last six meetings at Old Trafford. But the last three clashes at the Etihad Stadium have ended 3-1, 6-3 and 4-1 to Manchester City. Further back, Pep Guardiola also oversaw a 3-1 win and a 3-2 defeat at home in 2018.

With this current iteration of the reigning champions struggling by their sky-high standards, this should be another end-to-end encounter with plenty of goalmouth action. 

Scoreline prediction

Manchester City 2-1 Manchester United (43/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (17/20 with William Hill)

Arsenal vs Everton betting tips

Arsenal concede very few chances at the Emirates Stadium. While beating Manchester United, Nottingham Forest and Wolves to nil at home this season, the Gunners didn’t allow more than 0.5 expected goals against any of them.

Even when Leicester scored twice at Arsenal, they did so from chances valued at just 0.3 xG. Such things can always happen and Everton have scored in four of their last five visits to the red half of north London. But on the road they are so out of form in front of goal that it’s hard to see how that happens this time. 

Scoreline prediction

Arsenal 2-0 Everton (27/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Arsenal win to nil (10/11 with William Hill)

Liverpool vs Fulham betting tips

Thanks to a two-legged Carabao Cup semi-final, these clubs met four times last season. Both teams scored every time, with the clashes seeing an average of four goals each.

The Anfield league meeting was the wildest of the quartet, as it ended 4-3 to Liverpool after Fulham had led with three minutes to go. Arne Slot’s team are far calmer than Jurgen Klopp’s wild boys though. 

Even so, these are two of the five teams in the division who have scored in every Premier League match bar one this season.

Scoreline prediction

Liverpool 3-1 Fulham (10/1 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Liverpool win and both teams to score (7/4 with Skybet)

Newcastle vs Leicester betting tips

It will be interesting to see how Leicester play in their first away game under Ruud van Nistelrooy. Their matches on the road have tended to keep the referee busy, with three matches seeing at least six yellow cards and two of those also featuring a red. 

Referee Tom Brammall likes booking players too. He has averaged 4.9 yellow cards per Premier League game since the start of last season. 

Five of Newcastle’s seven home games have featured at least six cards, with three hitting eight, there will be plenty to keep him occupied here. 

Scoreline prediction

Newcastle 2-1 Leicester (141/20 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 4.5 cards (23/20 with Paddy Power)

Wolves vs Ipswich betting tips

Talk about a big match. Wolves and Ipswich are both in the bottom three with nine points and each come into this game on the back of three successive defeats. 

In a mini-league of the bottom six teams in the division, these clubs rank third and sixth on a points-per-match basis respectively. As they struggle to beat fellow strugglers, anything could happen.

Neither team can defend though. Wolves have conceded the most goals of any top flight side while only two have allowed more per game on the road than Ipswich. Their previous meeting in the EFL Cup last year ended 3-2. While we predict it might be lower-scoring, a repeat of that result is far from impossible. 

Scoreline prediction

Wolves 2-1 Ipswich (43/5 with Matchbook)

FIRST’s top tip:

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (11/10 with William Hill)

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa betting tips

There are some bigger matches on paper this weekend but in terms of the Premier League table, this is the only game to feature two of the top six clubs facing each other. 

They could easily cancel each other out. Nottingham Forest have already drawn with Brighton and Bournemouth, the two sides directly below Aston Villa in the table at the start of the weekend. 

The Villans also took a point from the Cherries and have yet to avoid defeat against a side currently above them in the table. There won’t be much between the teams at the City Ground. 

Scoreline prediction

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa (6/1 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Draw (23/10 with Mr.Play)

Brighton vs Crystal Palace betting tips

The last five M23 derbies at Selhurst Park have ended 1-1. At the Amex, there has been more variety, but with Crystal Palace top of the Premier League draws table and Brighton one behind them, this game should be close.

Tied games take many forms though. Two of the Seagulls’ last three have been 2-2 after they lead 2-0 in the 85th minute. Similarly, prior to their 1-0 win at Ipswich, Palace had recorded a pair of 2-2 draws on the road. Brighton might still win on home soil but there should be plenty of goals.

Scoreline prediction

Brighton 3-1 Crystal Palace (14/1 with Bet Goodwin)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 3.5 goals (41/20 with Unibet)

Chelsea vs Brentford betting tips

Brentford might be the second worst away team in the 2024/25 Premier League but they have won at Stamford Bridge in each of the last three seasons. The aggregate score was 8-1 to the Bees.

While Thomas Frank’s men have a knack of upsetting the odds, Chelsea are in fabulous form. They have won their previous four league matches, scoring three-or-more goals in the last three of them.

Clean sheets have been rare though. Six of the Blues’ nine league wins have seen both teams score, as have five of Brentford’s six defeats. 

Scoreline prediction

Chelsea 3-1 Brentford (10/1 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Chelsea win and both teams to score (11/8 with Betway)

Southampton vs Tottenham betting tips

Tottenham are impossible to predict. Having lost to Crystal Palace and Ipswich, would it be that much of a shock if they were beaten by Southampton?

With the gifts Saints provide opponents, close to Christmas or not, Spurs will probably win. But what looks certain is plenty of corners. These clubs are the top two for this statistic in the division this season.

Five of Southampton’s seven home games have seen at least 12, with the same proportion of Tottenham’s on the road fitting that bill. Any total feels possible here. 

Scoreline prediction

Southampton 1-3 Tottenham (47/5 with Mr.Play)

FIRST’s top tip:

Over 11.5 corners (3/4 with BetVictor)

Bournemouth vs West Ham betting tips

Bournemouth striker Evanilson has proven more adept at winning penalties than scoring goals in his debut Premier League campaign. The Brazilian has won five spot kicks (including three in one game at Wolves) but only scored four times.

Evanilson will be wondering how he hasn’t found the net in his last four league games though. Across those matches he had 13 shots with 12 of them in the box. Four were classified by Opta as big chances. 

Against a West Ham side with no away clean sheets from four games against teams 11th or higher, Evanilson should score. 

Scoreline prediction

Bournemouth 2-1 West Ham (17/2 with bet365)

FIRST’s top tip:

Evanilson to score anytime (6/4 with William Hill)

Odds correct at the time of writing.