Man City vs Man Utd betting preview: Tips and predictions

Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is likely to start Imago — Manchester City midfielder Kevin De Bruyne is likely to start *Imago*

Manchester City state of play

The wheels have well and truly come off the Manchester City juggernaut, with the sky blue half of Manchester left in a state of disbelief that their ludicrously talent-stacked squad are struggling so badly.

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Staggeringly, City have won just ONCE in their last 10 games – a 3-0 home win over Nottingham Forest – but losses to Spurs (in both the league and EFL Cup), Bournemouth, Brighton and Liverpool have left their domestic season in tatters. It hasn’t been much better in Europe, with UEFA Champions League defeats to Sporting and Juventus sandwiching a 3-3 home draw with Feyenoord that exposed their current defensive frailties.

City are barely recognisable from the side that has dominated the Premier League over recent years, and it seems Pep Guardiola is struggling to turn their form around.

Manchester United state of play

While City are stuck in a rut, United are beginning to show some green shoots of recovery. Since former Sporting head coach Ruben Amorim took over the side in early November, there have been signs of better days ahead for the Red Devils.

Things haven’t been perfect. United’s resounding 4-0 win over Everton was followed by a 2-0 reverse at Arsenal, then another loss to Nottingham Forest. But Amorim is gradually getting to grips with his team, and some key changes during Thursday night’s Europa League match at Viktoria Plzen helped turn a one-goal deficit into a 2-1 win.

With that gritty come-from-behind win uppermost in their minds, and the knowledge that City are a wounded animal, United will fancy their chances of scoring a morale-boosting win on enemy territory this weekend.

Key talking point: Which side will rise to the occasion on derby day?

Looking at the two teams’ recent results, United are clearly the form side heading into this weekend’s clash. Sure, there’s been some inconsistency there, but they’re scoring goals (11 in their last five games) and they’re competing, even in defeat. City, meanwhile, have failed to score in three of their last six matches. That’s a big worry for City fans heading into the derby.

Derbies often see the form book thrown out of the window, however, and it can sometimes boil down to the age-old question fans ask of their teams every time a big game rolls around: “How much do they want it?” That question is sure to be asked of both sets of players heading into a Manchester derby that could be huge for both clubs.

If City win, it could mark the start of a turnaround in fortunes that sees them regain their old form. Whereas for United, it’s a chance to pile more woe on their “noisy neighbours” and give new boss Amorim a statement-making victory in his first big derby match. Amorim led his former club Sporting to a huge 4-1 victory over City earlier this season, and he’ll probably fancy his chances of repeating the feat with United this weekend.

FIRST’s top tip for Manchester City vs Manchester United

When it comes to the sheer amount of match-winning talent at their disposal, City should be the pick here. But their shocking form, coupled with stingy 11/20 odds, makes them a bet with a fair degree of risk for relatively little reward.

With United currently showing the better form, and more potency in front of goal, an away win for the red half of Manchester looks like outstanding value at 22/5 with BetMGM. Momentum + excellent odds = a worthwhile value bet on derby day.

Manchester United to win – 22/5 (BetMGM)

Extra tips

Derby days are often chaotic, and given the respective form of both sides heading into this one, I don’t see it being any different here. We haven’t seen a goalless draw in a Manchester derby since 2020, with the seven Premier League derby matches between the pair since producing 28 goals – an average of four goals per game.

You can back that trend to continue at better than even money at 59/50 (BetMGM), but given the lack of stability around the two teams in this fixture, I think there’s much better value in backing the game to deliver fewer goals than usual, with the 37/20 available on the match having under 2.5 goals possibly the best value bet you’ll find on the game. The 25/1 odds on a goalless draw also look huge, given the patchy form of both sides. That might be worth a small side bet, too.

Total Goals: Under 2.5 – 37/20 (BetMGM)
Total Goals: Under 0.5 – 25/1 (BetMGM)

Manchester City vs Manchester United team news

Manchester City have big problems in the heart of their defence, with Manuel Akanji, Nathan Ake and John Stones all set to miss out on the game this weekend, while midfield lynchpin Rodri and winger Oscar Bobb are also ruled out with long-term injuries. To make matters worse for Guardiola, Rico Lewis’ red card against Crystal Palace last weekend means he’s suspended.

It will be very interesting to see if Amorim shuffles the pack for United after ringing the changes mid-way through the game with Viktoria Plzen. Rasmus Hojlund, Mason Mount and Alejandro Garnacho all made positive impacts from the bench, and there’s a strong chance one or more of them could start against City this weekend. Marcus Rashford’s pace and direct running on the counter may keep him in the side ahead of Mount, while Garnacho could potentially torment an off-form Kyle Walker. Hojlund looks set to replace the disappointing Joshua Zirkzee, who was hooked after a poor showing in Czechia.