The Players Championship betting tips: Can Scheffler do the TPC Sawgrass three-peat?

The Players Championship: Things to consider 

The strongest field in a new look world of golf tees it up at the PGA Tour HQ in Ponte Vedra Beach. The Players Championship is often renowned as the ‘fifth golf major’, and it kicks off the major season with the Masters looming in April. 

The stadium course at TPC Sawgrass is an iconic venue where anything can happen, so don't be surprised to see what unfolds in an action-packed week ahead in Florida. We've also broken down six key strategies to nailing your golf betting picks that could come in handy this week.

Love golf? Find the best golf betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

Bay Hill’s ‘signature event’ preceded the Players Championship. There was an exciting finish to the Arnold Palmer Invitational (API), with elite players topping the board down the stretch. 

Ultimately, it was Russell Henley (28/1 Betway) who emerged victorious to claim his fifth PGA Tour win. The 35-year-old is now number seven in the world golf rankings.

The Players Championship boasts a huge purse of $25m (£19.4m), with $4.5m (£3.49m) going to the winner along with a host of perks and exemptions, including PGA Tour and major tournament exemptions. The Players Championship winner will also bank 750 FedEx Cup points.

The Players Championship course fit 

TPC Sawgrass stadium course is a par 72 playing 7,352 yards in length. The rough is overseeded Bermuda, and Bermuda greens also await the players in the third event of the Florida swing. 

Tom Hoge (250/1 Betway) holds the course record, having hit a bogey-free 62 in 2023.

The Players Championship moved to its new spring slot in the calendar in 2019 and softer conditions have made for an easier test since then. 

Shot shaping is required both ways as Justin Thomas (20/1 BetMGM) showed with aplomb en route to victory in 2021. Short game skills come to the fore too, and Cameron Smith proved this in 2022. 

When the wind blows and the sub air system greens are set firm, TPC Sawgrass is a serious test of golf. 

Arguably, it was Kenny Duke who showcased this the most when shooting one of the best rounds in history. Duke hit a 7-under par 65 in borderline unfair conditions on the Saturday in 2016. 

On some of the firmest and fastest greens you will see, and with the breeze blowing, Duke would gain 10.6 strokes on the field that day.

In 2018 – a more benign and softer test - winner Webb Simpson was shooting for records. He was 11-under par through 16 holes at Sawgrass’s stadium course before making double bogey at the iconic par 3 island-green 17th hole. 

The Players Championship: Top of the market 

Leading the market this week is the defending champion and world number one, Scottie Scheffler (5/1 BetMGM). 

The ‘Scheff’ is looking to do an unprecedented three-peat at Sawgrass, becoming the first man to win the tournament in back-to-back years in 2023 and 2024.

Last year saw the 50th anniversary of the Players Championship, and Scheffler recorded the lowest closing round by a winner at the stadium Course. 

The last five years have seen Rory McIlroy (9/1 BetMGM), Justin Thomas (18/1 Betway), Cameron Smith and Scheffler himself (twice) lifting the Players Championship trophy.

But the stadium course at TPC Sawgrass is a track that lends itself to all types of stylistic winners, and there’s a case to be made against several of the front runners here. This includes Xander Schauffele (25/1 Spreadex), who is struggling for form after a long injury layoff.

The first two names that grab my attention in the Players Championship betting are Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry.

Fleetwood always seems to be there or thereabouts but fails to put four rounds together. Form wise he is about to peak following a T5 at the Genesis and a closing 68 at Bay Hill to finish T11. 

The Englishman has two top-seven finishes at Sawgrass and has been simmering there the last few years. Fleetwood is fourth in strokes gained approach this year.

Another man excelling in the approach stats is Shane Lowry, who ranked 12th last season in ‘strokes gained approach’ and was also up there in the ‘driving accuracy’ stats (29th). 

If we are looking for the typical profile at Sawgrass, the Irishman stands out. Lowry can shape it both ways and can fly it down low in the wind. 

Around the greens, he possesses one of the best touches in the game. He is averaging 19th in his last four appearances at the stadium course but that doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Lowry was in contention through 36 holes at the API last week, eventually finishing seventh.

Just nudging ahead of Lowry at Bay Hill was Sepp Straka, who recovered from an opening 77 to post 66-69-69. 

The Austrian superstar is once again showing great form with four top 15 finishes in his last five events following a win at the American Express tournament. 

Straka has some form at TPC Sawgrass with a ninth place and a 16th place recorded in three Players Championship appearances. The big birdie machine is ninth in the approach stats in 2025.

Next up is former Players Championship winner Jason Day. The Australian short game and wind specialist has been showing some form of old this year. 

Day was third at the AMEX and 13th at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and he looked like he might nick the Arnold Palmer Invitational trophy last week until a nasty ill-timed double bogey at the easy 16th. 

That is a four-shot reverse vs the winner Russell Henley, who chipped in for Eagle on that hole. 

If not for that, I think Day would be a bit shorter in the Players Championship betting odds.

FIRST’s top tip for The Players Championship 

Tommy Fleetwood is still chasing his maiden PGA Tour win, but it wouldn’t be a shock if it came in a big event. Back the Englishman each way (seven places) at 28/1 with Betway.

Extra tips

Shane Lowry loves Sawgrass and is rounding nicely into form. Back the Irishman each way (seven places) at 33/1 with Spreadex.

Sepp Straka 45/1 (seven places) with BetMGM and Jason Day 50/1 (seven places) with Spreadex both looked strong at Bay Hill and are likely to carry their form over to the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.

The Players Championship: Value bets 

I think the guys at the head of the Players Championship odds look vulnerable, and top of my value tips is the cautious but solid Corey Conners. 

I think Conners showed what he was all about at Bay Hill playing conservative tee-to-green golf. The Canadian went bogey-free on Sunday but narrowly missed out on the win, finishing third. 

He owns some Players Championship form, finishing seventh and 13th in previous outings at Sawgrass and can go well again here at a good price.

Daniel Berger is a Florida native and specialist on East Coast courses. His ball flight is unique, and when the wind gets up, Berger really has an advantage on much of the field in events like the Players Championship. 

Berger is finally returning to form after injury woes, and he certainly can’t be overlooked at a venue where he’s finished ninth and 13th on his last two starts. Berger’s current form line reads T2 – 12 – T25 – T15.

Aaron Rai also sneaked onto my radar last Sunday with an Eagle at hole number 16 that helped propel him to a T11 finish. 

Standout memories of Rai at Sawgrass include his hole in one on the island green 17th hole with gap wedge in hand back in 2023, which is also something Lowry has done. 

Rai is a meticulous player, solid from tee to green and is a good course fit for Sawgrass. Two appearances here so far for the Englishman have yielded 19th and 35th place finishes. 

His T11 at Bay Hill was preceded by a T4 at Vidanta in Mexico, so Rai is hitting top gear. Rai currently lies sixth in ‘driving accuracy’ and 30th in ‘greens in regulation’.

Finally on my radar is Christiaan Bezuidenhout. He loves the type of test Florida golf throws up, and he excels with his irons and in the short game department where he ranks 24th in ‘strokes gained around the green’. 

The South African was fourth in Phoenix and finished up at Bay Hill inside the top 20. 

His three appearances at the Players Championship so far have yielded 41st, 13th and 13th place finishes. Could Bezuidenhout break his PGA Tour duck this week?

FIRST’s top value tips for The Players Championship 

Corey Conners’ tee-to-green game is in great shape. Back him each way (seven places) at 50/1 with Betway to tame Sawgrass. 

Aaron Rai is one of the new breed of European players really making waves stateside, and his second PGA Tour victory could be just around the corner. Back Rai each way (seven places) at 70/1 with BetMGM.

Daniel Berger is back in form and could be one to watch at 50/1 each way (seven places) with Betway, while Christiaan Bezuidenhout loves Florida-style golf and is available each way (seven places) at 100/1 with Spreadex.

There could be some fast starts by this lot. Back Conners, Berger, Rai and Bezuidenhout each way respectively at 50/1, 66/1, 70/1 and 80/1 (seven places) with BetMGM in the Players Championship first-round leader market.

Could we see another hole in one at the iconic 17th? It’s 1/2 with Betway for there to be a hole-in-one in the tournament.

Odds correct at the time of writing.