2025 Welsh Open betting preview: Magician Murphy can continue fantastic form

The stakes are high at the 2025 Welsh Open in Llandudno; the concluding leg of this season's four-pronged Home Nations Series, which is also professional snooker’s third longest-running ranking tournament.

Alongside lifting the Ray Reardon Trophy and a £100,000 top prize going to the champion, this year’s Welsh Open is the final counting event towards the race for the seasonal £150,000 Home Nations bonus. Which also grants qualification for next month’s big-money World Grand Prix in Hong Kong. 

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We have recently been reminded of this Series’ charm and unpredictability; at the Scottish Open in December, world number 84 Lei Peifan shocked the sport by winning his maiden title, having never previously been past the last 16 of a professional event. 

The favourites: World champ Wilson aiming for maiden Welsh win 

Crucible king Kyren Wilson is in red-hot form. The world number two immediately bounced back from losing the Masters final to Shaun Murphy at Alexandra Palace to win the German Masters title for the second time in his career just a fortnight later. 

Within 72 hours of that Berlin triumph, ‘The Warrior’ also reached the grand final of the Championship League Invitational. 

The subsequent absence of world number one Judd Trump means Wilson will be seen by many as the true favourite for the title at the Venue Cymru. He won the second leg of this season’s Home Nations Series at the Northern Ireland Open, where he brushed aside four-time winner Trump in the final.

The Rocket still in contention 

At the time of writing, seven-time world champion Ronnie O’Sullivan is in the draw, but his participation is very doubtful having withdrawn from several events this term. 

He has not appeared on the baize since deliberately snapping his cue at the start of 2025 and subsequently pulling out of the prestigious Masters. 

O’Sullivan - who has been installed as the pre-event favourite despite having not made a final this season – could turn up at this event as he is a fan of the seaside location, but keep abreast of announcements from the World Snooker Tour in the coming days. 

Best of the rest

The usual suspects are at the top of the betting ratings, including Mark Selby and Mark Allen who have each won several Home Nations trophies in the past. 

Both esteemed cueists have also tasted title success on the professional circuit in recent weeks. Allen claimed the Riyadh Season ‘gold ball 167’ event just before Christmas, while just a few days ago on home soil in Leicester, Selby fashioned a maximum 147 break en route to retaining the Championship League crown. 

Bizarrely, no home soil player has made the final of the Welsh Open – yet alone win it – since Mark Williams was runner-up in 2003. The three-time world champion is the most likely native to end this streak. It would be very fitting given this is the first staging of the event since Welsh snooker giants Reardon and Terry Griffiths passed away last year. 

Along with Kyren Wilson, English Open champion Neil Robertson and Wu Yize – runner-up at the English and Scottish stops – seem the most likely candidates to pocket the £150,000 Home Nations bonus given that Lei went out during qualifying, and Trump did not enter. 

Reigning champion Gary Wilson is 50/1 with BetMGM to successfully defend in North Wales, but the world number 14 doesn’t come into the event in good form. 

A player who is riding the crest of a wave, though, is newly-minted Masters champion Shaun Murphy. ‘The Magician’ wowed the crowds last month on his way to regaining snooker’s most lucrative invitational event, compiling a 147 break in the semis and denying world title holder Wilson in the final. 

Since then, Murphy has only played in one event, where he narrowly lost out in the last 16 of the German Masters. He won his two previous rounds in Berlin without dropping a frame. 

Murphy is a former winner of the Welsh Open (2020 in Cardiff) and he won the World Grand Prix title at this venue in 2016, so he knows what it takes to win in both departments. 

The Englishman – who really needs the ranking points over the coming months – has a favourable-looking draw in the bottom half for the first few rounds at least. 

FIRST’s top tip for the 2025 Welsh Open: Shaun Murphy 

In-form, a former winner, and a champion at the Venue Cymru in the past, we like Shaun Murphy’s odds of 8/1 with BetMGM to lift the Ray Reardon Trophy again. 

Consistency is key, but Allen wants titles

Mark Allen has reached at least the semi-finals in five of his last seven professional events. He is yet to win this accolade, but he does have three Home Nations Series titles to his name. The former world number is 17/2 with Mr.Play to add a fourth here. 

FIRST’s value pick:  Brecel bouncing back? 

Since winning snooker’s blue riband event in the spring of 2023, it has been a pretty rough ride for former world champion Luca Brecel in ranking event action, having not made a single semi-final appearance. 

The enigmatic Belgian is languishing in 50th place on the projected end-of-season rankings, but there have been green shoots of recovery in recent months. 

At the last Home Nations stop in Edinburgh, Brecel  reached his first quarter-final of the season and followed that up with a run to the final of the Riyadh Season invitational in the Middle East. 

The 29-year-old ran world champ Wilson very close in the quarter-finals of the Masters last month. And despite a last-32 exit at the German Masters, Brecel will travel to Llandudno with renewed hope and happy memories of the venue. 

Brecel progressed to the last eight here 12 months ago, and has lifted a trophy at the Venue Cymru before when he won the Scottish Open in 2021 (yes, you read that correctly). 

Elsewhere in the 64-player draw, Barry Hawkins can’t be discounted in what appears to be an open third quarter. 

The underappreciated four-time ranking event champion is knocking on the door of another title having just missed out on UK Championship and German Masters gold in recent weeks. 

Jack Lisowski – probably the best player on tour without a ranking title to his name – is also in this section. ‘Jackpot’ doesn’t have great form, but the lack of attention could work in his favour. Lisowski is 18/1 with BetMGM to finally lift his maiden trophy. 

FIRST’s value pick for the 2025 Welsh Open 

Luca Brecel 

Brecel has never been consistent but is capable of stunning tournament salvos. He has had a largely positive few months on the baize and is a previous Llandudno winner. 18/1 with BetMGM.

Also consider Hawkins, who is flying 

Two frames away from the UK title, and one frame away from the German Masters title – Barry Hawkins has been in superb fettle this winter. The former world finalist is a good price 14/1 with BetMGM to collect a deserved pot by the sea.

Odds correct at the time of writing.