ATP Maia Challenger and WTA 125k Buenos Aires betting tips: 2025 Australian Open entry on the minds in tennis ‘off-season’

For the bigger names in tennis, we have just entered the sport’s ‘off-season’. But for others who we don’t see shining week in and week out, this is a key stage at the dying embers of the season to achieve crucial ranking points ahead of 2025. 

On the players' minds will be the cut-off for the first grand slam of next year, be it direct entry for the Australian Open or achieving a good enough ranking to compete in qualifying at Melbourne Park, which will begin on 6 January. 

There will be two more weeks with WTA 125k events but this is the last week with Challenger-level tennis on the men's side, so let’s start with some matches in Maia, Portugal, an event that is played on a rare indoor clay.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Henrique Rocha

In this round of 16 matchup between two promising youngsters, we can expect some heavy shotmaking. Both players are trying to dictate play from the baseline with Rocha being the more well-rounded player. 

The Portuguese player is playing with more spin and variety, however, he doesn’t seem to be in top shape this late in the season, having had problems beating Anton Matusevich in round one – he survived match point on the Brit’s serve – and having lost to Orlando Luz previously. 

Considering his talent, those have been two surprising results and competing in Maia might just be a commitment towards the Portuguese fans after a long season. 

Against Nicolas Alvarez Varona, Rocha will face a lot of firepower and while the Spaniard still lacks consistency, his serve and forehand can keep him in matches alone. 

Indoors, balls travel through the air even faster, favouring Alvarez Varona’s style of play. With Rocha presumably not being at 100% anymore, this could make for some quicker points.

FIRST’s top tip for Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs Henrique Rocha

While we don’t see enough value in Alvarez Varona to beat Rocha, the Spaniard has all the tools to extend this match with his big hitting. We don’t think the indoor conditions are priced incorrectly, so back the over 22.5 games (10/11 with bet365).

Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Damir Dzumhur

With a current ranking of #106, Damir Dzumhur is looking to secure direct entry for the 2025 Australian Open. 

Winning the title in Maia can get him as high as #83, so the #3 seed should be highly motivated with direct entry for the first major of 2025 looking more than achievable this week. Dzumhur put up a fight against Portuguese player Frederico Ferreira Silva yesterday, finally winning in a third-set tiebreak, coming back from a 2-5 deficit in the set. 

Against Oleksandr Ovcharenko, the Bosnian will have the match on his racquet again. Ovcharenko can be described as a clay-courter and while he’s usually able to extend points, the indoor component should actually favour Dzumhur, who’s the better player with the bigger weapons, in this matchup.

FIRST’s top tip for Oleksandr Ovcharenko vs Damir Dzumhur

Courts, conditions and the motivational factor all point towards Dzumhur, who’s the more talented player anyway. The Bosnian will be trying to avoid another marathon match with what’s on the line for him this week. 

Back Dzumhur -2.5 games (4/5 with bet365)

Laura Pigossi vs Jazmin Ortenzi

Another player fighting for crucial points this off-season is Argentine player Jazmin Ortenzi. 

The Argentine has just achieved a new career high at #273 but it doesn’t have to stop here. Beating compatriot Luisina Giovannini 6-2, 6-1 in round one already put her to #260 in the provisional rankings. 

Against Laura Pigossi, the 23-year-old has every chance to collect even more points. The two are facing each other for the third time already this November and the first two meetings couldn’t have been more lopsided with Ortenzi beating Pigossi 6-3, 6-1 at the WTA 125k event in Cali as well as 6-2, 6-1 in their Billie Jean King Cup tie in Pigossi’s home town of Sao Paulo. 

But now playing in front of her home crowd, Ortenzi should be motivated to extend that dominant streak over Pigossi. While Pigossi is a defensively-minded player with no real weapons, Ortenzi likes to dictate play with heavy spin and good shot selection. 

We can expect a battle of attrition from the baseline in which Ortenzi clearly is the in-form player. She also had Beatriz Haddad Maia on the brink of defeat in Sao Paulo, leading the world #17 6-3, 5-2, 40-15* before collapsing due to nerves of achieving the biggest win of her career.

FIRST’s top tip for Laura Pigossi vs Jazmin Ortenzi

Ortenzi started as the bookmakers’ favourite here and we do not agree with the market move that made her the underdog again. We like Ortenzi to win this match (1/1 with bet365).

Odds correct at the time of writing.