2024 Davis Cup finals betting preview: Magical farewell for Nadal in Malaga?

By Vinny Maukner

All eyes will be on Rafael Nadal during this year’s edition of the ‘World Cup of tennis’. In front of his home crowd, one of the sport’s all-time greats will say farewell, ideally by winning the Davis Cup one more time. 

Besides all his success in singles, Nadal has been a great team player throughout his career, leading his nation to five titles (in 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2019). 

Nadal’s loss in his debut match back in 2004 still remains his only Davis Cup defeat in singles - he has won 29 straight matches after, including a finals win over Andy Roddick in the same year, which he later claimed to be his “first great joy as a professional tennis player”. 

While Nadal might only compete in doubles this time around, seven other nations are hoping to lift the Davis Cup next Sunday with Italy leading the way.

The favourites

The defending champions have an in-form Jannik Sinner, who not only finishes the season as the world no.1 but clearly is a step ahead of his competitors on quicker indoor courts. 

Lorenzo Musetti might be Italy’s weak spot as the number two singles player, even though he beat Alexander Zverev in Vienna last month. 

Just like all serious contenders, Italy possesses a strong doubles team in Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori. 

That being said, at the very top, the pairing usually struggles. They recently lost to the pairings of Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni in Shanghai, Wesley Koolhof and Botic van de Zandschulp at the Davis Cup group stage and Kevin Krawietz and Tim Pütz at the US Open – all doubles teams that are competing at the Davis Cup Finals as well. 

The presence of Sinner as well as potential 50/50 matchups at singles position two and doubles still warrants Italy to be slight favourites over Spain and all the other nations.

If Nadal is competing in singles, he would do so in position two. We don’t know what to expect from Spain in that position as neither Pedro Martinez nor Roberto Bautista Agut are performing consistently this year. Nadal stated that “the team always comes first” and that he will only play singles if he realistically sees himself as “ready to have a chance of winning”. 

Unfortunately, this can’t be guaranteed anymore with all the injuries he’s carrying along. 

As for the doubles, we would surely call up Marcel Granollers to play alongside Nadal. The all-time French Open great couldn’t get it done alongside Carlos Alcaraz against Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram on clay at the Olympics in Paris and their chances clearly decrease indoors. 

A healthy Alcaraz should beat everyone except Sinner and the draw is also a favourable one for the host nation, who start the event as the co-favourites.

The challengers

The USA are bridging the favourites and challengers with arguably the most balanced team. 

ATP Finals finalist Taylor Fritz once again showed that he can keep up with the very best while both Tommy Paul and Ben Shelton will likely be favourites over all the other nations’ number twos.

Austin Krajicek and Rajeev Ram also perform rock-solid doubles, even though their lead-up to the Davis Cup Finals has been a little bumpy. Of all the top nations, Team USA have the toughest road to the final, facing last year’s runner-up Australia before a potential semi-final against defending champions Italy and a final against Spain awaits.

The tie between the US and Australia is the closest quarter-final contest, at least on paper. Australia's Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson just lost in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals, blowing a set-and-a-break lead as well as a match point against eventual winners Krawietz and Pütz. 

Unlike the German pairing, Purcell and Thompson (or Matt Ebden, who’s another great doubles option), Australia can count on a solid singles lineup with the up-and-coming Alexei Popyrin, indoor specialist Thompson and Thanasi Kokkinakis, who can beat almost anyone on his day.

The best of the rest

As mentioned, the absence of Alexander Zverev greatly hurts the German team. Jan-Lennard Struff would have been a great number two, however, at the number one spot, other nations have better and more consistent players. 

Daniel Altmaier can’t be described as an indoor specialist and Yannick Hanfmann is on a six-match losing streak against players not near as good as the competition here in Malaga. 

It remains to be seen if the Krawietz/Pütz partnership are even given the chance to clean up the doubles as they did in Turin last week.

A reinvigorated Denis Shapovalov is leading the Canadian team. Winning his first title after more than five years should give him a great confidence boost, however, the team behind him isn’t too strong with Milos Raonic and Vasek Pospisil rarely healthy.

The Netherlands could make for a tricky opponent on day one as they face Spain at the quarter-final stage. Tallon Griekspoor and Van de Zandschulp are always capable of a surprise and with Koolhof, they also have a former doubles world no.1 in their own ranks.

Speaking of major surprises, Argentina will face defending champions Italy first up. While Sebastian Baez won’t stand a chance against Jannik Sinner (and all the other guys at position one), Francisco Cerundolo beating Lorenzo Musetti isn’t completely off the cards. 

Cerundolo will play a decisive role in Argentina’s ties as Maximo Gonzalez and Andres Molteni make for an underrated doubles pairing. Last month, the Argentines beat Simone Bolelli and Andrea’s Vavassori, so an upset can’t completely be ruled out here.

FIRST’s top tip for the 2024 Davis Cup Finals

Let’s hope for a week full of magic in Malaga. During Nadal’s last gig as a professional athlete, home fans can forget about the dramatic flood situation for a week. 

The country coming together and providing a true Davis Cup atmosphere can become a factor and with their path being a little easier than Italy’s, we like Spain to win this year’s Davis Cup Finals at 7/4 with bet365.

FIRST’s value pick for the 2024 Davis Cup Finals

At 5/1 with bet365, Team USA won’t have any easy ties, but with a much-improved Taylor Fritz, the best options at position two and a doubles pairing that can beat anyone, they should be closer to Italy and Spain than the odds suggest.

Odds correct at the time of writing.