2024 ATP Tour finals betting preview: Favourable conditions for Sinner on home soil

By Vinny Maukner

For the first time since 2001, none of tennis’ big three are present at the ATP Finals. While for Novak Djokovic, this is just the case because of an injury, it still marks another point towards the eventual end of an era. 

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the industry’s new leaders with previous ATP Finals winners Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev being in the mix as well. It’s the fourth and penultimate edition of the ATP Finals held in Turin, Italy, where there’s a bit of altitude to contend with. Paired with a quick indoor surface, this results in one of the – if not the – quickest conditions on tour.

The favourites

Jannik Sinner had to sit out the final Masters 1000 event in Paris due to a gastrointestinal virus. Before that, the Italian prodigy has dominantly won the Shanghai Masters and also collected the biggest prize cheque in tennis history by winning the “6 Kings Slam” exhibition in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In his first round-robin match here in Turin, Sinner routinely beat Alex De Minaur 6-3, 6-4. After getting broken in his second service game, he only dropped a handful of points on serve in the further course.

The courts in Turin give Sinner an advantage over his rival Carlos Alcaraz, who also complained about the event’s court speed in the past. Alcaraz did beat Sinner in Beijing at the start of October, but the Spaniard struggled slightly after, losing to Tomas Machac in Shanghai and Ugo Humbert in Paris. 

Disregarding the exhibition match in Riyadh, which Sinner wrapped up in three sets, Alcaraz won all of their three matchups on the ATP tour this year. Every match went the distance, showing how close these two are. However, overall form and the indoor conditions do favour Sinner here quite a bit.

It’s tough to make a serious case for anyone not named Sinner or Alcaraz, but Alexander Zverev is the player most likely able to break into the phalanx of the two youngsters. The German is the only player since Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic who won the season finale more than once as the quick conditions do give his game another boost. Winning the Paris Masters can only help his case and after capturing the ATP Finals in 2018 and 2021, it might be time for Zverev’s third victory.

The other player that has won the event before is Daniil Medvedev. The Russian is usually very competitive at the Finals, however, he arrived here with little to no confidence.

The challengers

Taylor Fritz is another beneficiary of the quick conditions. Possessing a great serve, it will always be tough to break the big-hitting American indoors. While he’s not a mental master yet, Fritz has proven that he’s right there when it comes to the premier challengers for big titles.

Now that his match against Sinner is out of the way, Alex De Minaur can focus on the more feasible tasks ahead. If he beats Medvedev and Fritz, the Australian should be through to the semi-finals. 

De Minaur can be described as the peskiest competitor and especially players struggling with form will have a hard time hitting through the great runner consistently. De Minaur has beaten Medvedev on indoor hard before and also possesses a positive head-to-head against Fritz, however, the American immensely progressed since their last meeting.

Let’s put Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev in the same category as players we would be very surprised to see in this year’s Turin final. The positive for the two is that they start in the same group, so if either Alcaraz or Zverev struggle, they could be there for the taking. 

It’s just tough to imagine with Ruud’s form being next to non-existent – the Norwegian has lost eight of his last 10 matches – and Rublev’s overall trajectory pointing downwards for quite some time now.

While the gap between Alcaraz and Zverev is closing considering conditions and players’ current form, Sinner should still be one step ahead of the two. If he’s fit, the Italian is the player to beat in his home country.

FIRST’s top tip for the 2024 ATP Finals

The quick indoor conditions favour world no.1 Jannik Sinner to the point where the odds of evens to win the event seem more than fair. We don’t think anyone can stop him this week.

Jannik Sinner outright (1/1 with Betgrouse)

Extra tip

Carlos Alcaraz will be the Finals’ big surprise bag. We all know what he’s capable of, but the conditions might be a bit too quick for him. This opens up a chance for the in-form Alexander Zverev to win John Newcombe Group (2/1 with Betgrouse) with Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev struggling tremendously of late.

FIRST’s value pick for the 2024 ATP Finals

At 6/1 with Betgrouse, Alexander Zverev is also our value pick to win the 2024 ATP Finals. The German has won the event twice before and is in fine form, having won the Paris Masters leading up to the event.

Also worth considering

Having beaten Medvedev in his first round-robin match, Taylor Fritz might be the dark horse of this year’s ATP Finals. The American has made a major step forward by reaching the final at the US Open. Although it will be hard for him to beat a mental giant like Sinner, the conditions enable him to cope with the likes of Alcaraz or Zverev, whom Fritz beat three times in a row in major tournaments, namely Wimbledon, the US Open and Laver Cup.

Odds correct at the time of writing.