2024 WTA Tour finals betting preview: Swiatek’s struggles signifying Sabalenka show in Saudi Arabia?

By Vinny Maukner

There are 15,250,000 USD (over 11,750,000 GBP) up for grabs at this year’s WTA Finals in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, matching the prize money of the ATP Finals for the very first time. Make of that what you will, but there’s quite a lot on the line with this tournament billed as one of the biggest to win outside of the four majors and the Olympics. The battle between Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek for year-end world no.1 is also still ongoing.

Sabalenka is leading the ‘purple’ group with Olympic gold medallist Zheng Qinwen, injury-and-illness-plagued Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini. Only a few would have expected Paolini's rapid rise up the rankings at the start of 2024, with the Italian competing in the singles and doubles events at this year’s Finals.

Barbora Krejcikova, who made it into the draw due to a rule change that allows Grand Slam winners to qualify for the 2024 WTA Finals if they ranked between eight and 20, joins American duo Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula as contenders looking to dethrone defending champion Iga Swiatek in the ‘orange’ group.

The current odds from Betgrouse show Swiatek as the even-money favourite to win the ‘orange’ group, with Gauff at 5/4, Pegula at 9/1 and Krejcikova at 12s. 

The favourites

Much of the 2024 WTA tour has been a two-horse race. After Sabalenka won her second Australian Open title in a row, Swiatek took over, winning four of the next five WTA 1000 events and dominating the clay season as usual, culminating in a fourth French Open victory in five years. Hereafter, the Polish player lost her stride though and while winning Wimbledon was never really in reach, the semi-final loss at the Olympics in Paris, which she was destined to win, might have taken a bit of the mental strength that she is characterised by. 

Swiatek hasn’t played since losing to Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals of the US Open and it was Sabalenka regaining the lead, winning the last major of the year as well as hard-court WTA 1000 events in Cincinnati and Wuhan. During that late-season run, only Karolina Muchova was able to defeat the Belarusian, who’s now got a 22-1 win record since mid-August.

After Sabalenka’s first two round-robin victories, she’s just one more win (or a single Swiatek loss) away from clinching the year-end world no. 1, but she won’t settle for just that. While Sabalenka was only able to beat Swiatek once in six meetings on clay, the two are 3-3 on hard courts and Sabalenka even leads the WTA Finals head-to-head 2-1.

The indoor courts and altitude component can only help the big hitter and also regarding the form of both players, Sabalenka is one step ahead of Swiatek at the moment. While Sabalenka routinely beat Zheng and Paolini in her first Riyadh round-robin matches, Swiatek was in all sorts of trouble, coming back from a 4-6, 0-3 deficit, against Krejcikova, who, despite possessing a peculiar game, shouldn’t pose an in-form Swiatek that many problems. To put it in a nutshell, the two-horse race has become a one-woman show and right now, Sabalenka is in her own tier.

FIRST’s top tip for the 2024 WTA Finals

There’s no way around Aryna Sabalenka being the clear-cut favourite to win the 2024 WTA Finals. Her odds aren’t the longest, but we think she’s winning the event more often than not in these circumstances.

Aryna Sabalenka outright (5/6 with bet365)

The value picks

Swiatek’s struggles open the door for other competitors, with Coco Gauff leading the way. Not reading the world into her new coaching setup, but her results since – an immediate WTA 1000 title at the China Open in Beijing, followed by another semi-final appearance in Wuhan, where she only lost to Sabalenka in three sets after leading 6-1, 4-2 – hold a lot of promise. Gauff dominantly beat compatriot Pegula on Sunday and her chances to defeat Swiatek have never been that good. Even if she loses to the Pole today, the 20-year-old can still reach the semi-finals with a win over Krejcikova.

Zheng Qinwen has been voted Newcomer of the Year in 2022 as well as Most Improved Player in 2023 at the WTA Awards. If it wasn’t for late bloomer Jasmine Paolini, one could have considered Zheng to win this title back-to-back. Not only did the Chinese player beat Swiatek in her so-called ‘living room’ in Paris, at least putting the Pole’s destructive dominance on hold. But she followed it through and became the first Asian tennis player to win an Olympic gold medal. And Zheng didn’t stop there – since September, she only lost to Sabalenka and Muchova. A quarter-final at the US Open was followed by a semi-final in Beijing, a final in Wuhan and a victory in Tokyo. 

That being said, she’s getting outmatched by Sabalenka, losing to her three times in two months, so she’ll hope to get some help from the other group in the semi-finals.

After losing her first match to Gauff, Jessica Pegula is with her back against the wall already, still having to face Swiatek in her last round-robin match. Jasmine Paolini is one win away from surprising everyone yet again, however, her ceiling just isn’t as high as her competitors. Elena Rybakina, probably still not at 100% fitness, is already out after losing to Paolini and Zheng.

As for Barbora Krejcikova, the Czech can get the craziest results out of the blue, but winning four matches in a row against Pegula, Gauff and then potentially Sabalenka and Swiatek/Gauff seems a little too irrational. Especially as she’s currently on a 1-4 losing record and has only beaten Ma Yexin after a second-round exit at the US Open.

FIRST’s value pick for the 2024 WTA Finals

At 3/1 (Betgrouse) Coco Gauff is our value pick for the 2024 WTA Finals. The new coaching setup has clearly elevated her spirits as she had Sabalenka on the brink of defeat three weeks ago and knows how to beat the industry leader.

Also worth considering

If you want an outside pick, Zheng Qinwen could be another option at 8/1 (Betgrouse). The Olympic gold medallist has been blasting through the Asian swing and has a fair 75% chance to beat Paolini in her last round-robin match and move to the semi-finals where she avoids Sabalenka.

odds correct at the time of writing.