Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship betting tips: Can anyone catch Rory McIlroy?

By Bryan Nicholson

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Things to consider  

The top 70 in the Race to Dubai have sealed their places in the DP World Tour playoffs. Rory McIlroy sits on top of the tree by a long way, but the final two Rolex Series events in the United Arab Emirates have 21,000 points up for grabs between them.

Despite a rally towards the end of the new DP World Tour ‘back nine’ swing, Matthew Baldwin was originally the unlucky bubble boy but after some withdrawals from the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship field, he will now tee it up. Richard Mansell just scraped into the top 70. Gavin Green birdied four of his last five holes in the Genesis Championship to qualify for Abu Dhabi. Last year’s DP World Tour Championship winner Nicolai Hojgaard also rallied on Sunday in Korea to make it into this week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Sean Crocker is now the last man qualified after field changes.

The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at Yas Links Golf Course has 9,000 points on offer along with a $9m (£6.7m) prize pool. Fifty players will qualify for next week’s grand finale of the DP World Tour Play-Offs to be played at the Earth Course in Dubai. 

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Top of the market 

Rory McIlroy is a good 1.5m points ahead of Thriston Lawrence in second place as it stands in the DP World Tour rankings and he leads the betting market at (9/2 with Mrplay). Jon Rahm maintains his membership of the DP World Tour and although he finished at number 34 in the standings, the Spaniard has chosen to sit this one out. Ludvig Aberg is also absent due to injury.

Rasmus Hojgaard sits at number three in the Race to Dubai rankings and he has bagged one of 10 PGA Tour passes available for 2025. Hojgaard’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship odds look more than fair at (19/1 with Mrplay). The Dane won the Irish Open on a links course at Royal County Down a couple of months back.

Yas Links Golf Course has hosted the last two editions of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship but at a slightly different time in the calendar in January. The track plays to a par 72 at 7,425 yards in length. 2022 winner Thomas Pieters says the key to his success was hitting fairways and greens and keeping bogeys off the card in some strong weather conditions at Yas Links. The 2023 tournament edition was played in much more benign conditions, but we still saw a similar style player to Pieters take the trophy with Frenchman Perez coming out the victor. 

So, I’m looking at those players who excel in the tee-to-green department and don’t make too many mistakes in terms of course fit this week.

The key metrics to look at for us at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship tournament will be strokes gained on approach and the 'greens in regulation' stat. It just so happens that the same player leads both categories on the DP World Tour: Tommy Fleetwood is also one of the best players out there in windy conditions and if we are talking bogey avoidance, this is the type of player we want to be looking at and have onside. Fleetwood was recently third on the links at St. Andrews in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. 

Another player near the top of the market in the same mould as Tommy Fleetwood is Irishman Shane Lowry. This pair went head-to-head for the Open Championship on the final day at Royal Portrush in 2019. Incidentally, we return to the Dunluce Course in Portrush to see who will claim the Claret Jug in 2025. Lowry ranks 13th in approach this year on the PGA Tour. He is fifth in strokes gained off-the-tee on the DP World Tour.

Another Englishman born and bred on the links is Tyrell Hatton who has been in decent form lately off the back of another win at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. Hatton finished sixth and seventh respectively in the first two Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship tournaments played at Yas Links Golf Course. The Englishman ranks fifth in strokes gained approach and 11th in strokes gained off-the-tee on the DP World Tour in 2024. Hatton won LIV Golf Nashville earlier in the year.

FIRST’s top tip for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship  

Tommy Fleetwood lies first in the ‘greens in regulation’ stat and first in strokes gained on approach. He’s an excellent wind player and a perfect fit for Yas Links. Back Fleetwood to win the tournament (7/1 with Betgrouse).

Extra tips  

We like the look of Irishman Shane Lowry at Yas Links given his improvement with his iron play.  Bet on Lowry at (14/1 with Betgrouse). Englishman Tyrell Hatton also catches our eye given his course and recent form. You can back Hatton at (6/1 with Mrplay).   

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship: Value bets 

The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship can be a good golf tournament to try and find some value on the outsiders.

Nicolai Hojgaard is freerolling and we mentioned his prowess in this part of the world. The Dane has been trending in recent weeks with three top 20s and his Sunday score of 67 at the Genesis secured him a top 10 finish and a jump up to no.67 in the rankings. He seemed thrilled at making the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in his post-tournament interview. The Dane ranks seventh in ‘greens in regulation’ and 11th in approach.

Niklas Norgaard is another Dane to watch. He is fourth in strokes gained off-the-tee and has been doing a lot of work on his wedge game which led to a win at the British Masters and a seventh-place finish at the BMW Championship at Wentworth.

Some more outsiders that are worth looking at are players like Francesco Laporta, Antoine Rozner and Casey Jarvis in various Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship markets. Both Laporta and Casey Jarvis made a late push to make the top 70 and they will also have a freeroll approach while their confidence is high and their games are trending.

Antoine Rozner is of particular interest after a fourth place at the Genesis. He’s second in the strokes gained: approach stat and he’s a regular on the top 10 of the leaderboard. It may pay to take a few of these guys in the top 10 market or the first-round leader market.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

We love Nicolai Hojgaard’s freerolling attitude ahead of the tournament this week. All his stats line up and he has progressive form ahead of the golf tournament. Back Nicolai Hojgaard at (28/1 with Mrplay). Antoine Rozner was fourth in his last outing and on average he has gained one shot per round on approach in 2024 and that will be vital at Yas Links. You can back Rozner at (66/1 with Betgrouse).

odds correct at the time of writing.