DP World Tour Championship betting tips: Will big hitters prevail on the Earth course?

By Bryan Nicholson

Odds courtesy of bet365

DP World Tour Championship: Things to consider

We are down to the final 50 in the Race to Dubai rankings after an eventful finish at the low-scoring Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at the Yas Links golf course. At the end of season DP World Tour Championship, 50 players will tee it up on the Earth course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. 

The gap at the top of the rankings is now 1,785 points and there are only 2,000 points from a total of 12,000 available to the winner, so Rory McIlroy has just about sewn up his sixth Race to Dubai title. 

Outsider Paul Waring held on for victory at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship on what was a Yas Links golf course that played easily in benign conditions. Waring to follow up his victory with a top five finish can be found at 9/1. 

At this week's tournament not only do we have the Harry Vardon Trophy up for grabs but there are plenty of subplots. 

Bonus money is on offer from the Race to Dubai rankings bonus pool and players are competing for one of seven PGA Tour cards still up for grabs. The DP World Tour Championship prize pool is $10m (£7.7m), which includes $3m going to the winner along with 2,000 Race to Dubai points.

DP World Tour Championship: Top of the market

So, who leads the DP World Tour Championship market? Rory McIlroy (19/4) is the man at the top, but he simply doesn’t win enough to justify that price. Tyrell Hatton (6/1) and Tommy Fleetwood (15/2) are only slightly behind the Northern Irishman, respectively, in the betting. 

Ludvig Aberg and Jon Rahm have decided not to compete at the DP World Tour Championship meaning Conor Syme and Francesco Laporta book their spots at Jumeirah Golf Estates.

The Earth course at Jumeirah Golf Estates is notoriously one for the big hitters and it was an outsider who won last year. The powerful Nicolai Hojgaard strolled to victory and the Dane’s form is just about peaking at the right time, finishing strongly at Yas Links for a t13 place. That is now four top 20 finishes in a row for the defending champ. Unfortunately, he is 57th in the standings at the time of writing. 

Driving distance and strokes gained off the tee will be important metrics this week, as will scoring on the par 5s. The Earth course plays 7,675 yards to a par of 72. The last 10 winners here are all huge names in golf. 

Niklas Norgaard’s power makes him stand out as a contender at the DP World Tour Championship. Norgaard has had a phenomenal second half of the season which produced a win at the Betfred British Masters. Norgaard ranks fourth in strokes gained: off-the-tee and third in driving distance. He kept it going last week with a top 10 finish. 

Minwoo Lee has found form again after some injury problems and the Australian has produced top 35 finishes in each of his last five events. He shot four rounds in the sixties in Abu Dhabi last week. Norgaard and Lee are ranked 12th and 14th in par five scoring respectively.

It is interesting to see Laurie Canter sitting up there in fifth for strokes gained: off the tee. Laurie was a winner earlier in the season at Green Eagle golf course and warmed up last week with a top 25. Joaquin Niemann has been flying on the LIV golf tour this year and he is fourth in the DP World Tour Championship market while Irishman Shane Lowry wraps up the top five in the betting.

Matt Wallace grabs my attention at 18/1. It was a tied third finish for Wallace in Abu Dhabi and he won the Omega Masters a couple of months ago. Interestingly he tied for second in the DP World Tour Championship last year. Thriston Lawrence is the only man with a chance of catching Rory McIlroy in the standings and the South African is interestingly priced at 25/1 (bet365).

FIRST's top tip for the DP World Tour Championship

Matt Wallace is trending and he has the track and current form concoction for the Earth Course in Dubai. He’s ready to win again. Back him at (18/1 to win or 16/5 top five with bet365).

Extra tips

Niklas Norgaard’s power is impressive off the tee and a perfect fit for the Earth course. Back him at (28/1 with bet365 or 9/2 top five). 

There could also be some value on Laurie Canter who can be backed at (55/1 to win or 6/1 top five with bet365). 

Minwoo Lee is trending and is fifth in strokes gained: off-the-tee on the PGA Tour. Back the Aussie at (40/1 to win or 19/4 top five finish with bet365).

DP World Tour Championship value bets

Looking a little further down the market and Tom McKibbin is an imperious ball striker who rallied with a 64 on Sunday to finish in the top 10 of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. McKibbin is on the cusp of earning a PGA Tour card for 2025. As it stands, he is on the bubble and he’ll be looking to finish his rookie season in which he earned a maiden victory strongly. The Northern Irishman is sixth in strokes gained: off-the-tee in 2024.

Yannik Pauls’ season hasn’t gone as expected. Several people thought he would push on. 

He did manage a tie for second at the Open de France and started well last week before a mediocre weekend. Stats wise, he is ninth in greens in regulation, 25th in strokes gained on approach and 35th in par 5 scoring so he could be a nice fit for the Earth course where he finished 27th last year carding a second round of 65.

Francesco Laporta is on the up and up with an average finish of 11th in his last four events. He’s 15/8 with bet365 in the top Italian market, up against Guido Migliozzi and Matteo Manassero.

First’s top value tips for the DP World Tour Championship

Tom McKibbin is finishing the season strongly and needs one last push to earn that PGA Tour card for 2025. Back him at (40/1 or 6/1 top five with bet365). Yannik Paul is looking to finish the year on a high too after failing to live up to his expectations in 2024. You can back him top continental European at (18/1 with bet365 1/4 3 places).

Odds correct at the time of writing.