RSM Classic betting tips: Nervy season finale closes out at Sea Island

By Bryan Nicholson

RSM Classic: Things to consider

The PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup autumn is drawing close to its conclusion with just one more event on the calendar. That comes in the shape of the RSM Classic from Sea Island and for a large percentage of the field, it’s the most important event of the season.

Some players are still looking to secure their PGA Tour cards for 2025. In an attempt to elevate their position in the FedEx Cup standings to wrap up fully exempt status or conditional status for the PGA Tour in 2025. There are also players trying to qualify for next year’s signature events via the ‘Aon Next 10’ which will consist of players ranked 51-60 in the FedEx Cup autumn rankings. 

Rafael Campos propelled himself from no. 147 in the FedEx Cup standings all the way up to no. 80 after winning in Bermuda last week. This gives him fully exempt status for next season along with entry to some of the biggest events like the Masters, the Players Championship and the PGA Championship which shows how big an opportunity is at stake for certain players at the RSM Classic.

Wes Bryan finished t17 in Bermuda to move from no. 128 in the rankings up to 125 which is the last spot to earn full PGA Tour status for 2025.

RSM Classic Odds: Top of the betting market

It was Ludvig Aberg who blitzed the field at the RSM Classic last year across the Seaside and Plantation courses which secured the Swede his maiden PGA tour victory. We haven't seen market leader Aberg (at tournament betting odds of 9/1 with bet365) tee it up for two months after an injury to his knee, but it seems he is fit enough to defend his crown.

Practice facilities at Sea Island are second to none and a decent number of PGA Tour pros base themselves here. 

Local boys amongst the market leaders include former Open Champion Brian Harman, Harris English, second in the market Davis Thompson, JT Poston who was the recent winner of the Shriners Hospitals Open, Ben Griffin and Keith Mitchell. 

Griffin finished eighth in last year’s RSM Classic and comes here off the back of another top 10 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

The standout name there in terms of prices though is Keith Mitchell (50/1). That price is off the back of three missed cuts but if he had some form coming in, he’d arguably be second favourite to Aberg at around 20/1. The American finished 12th and third in his two events before the triumvirate of missed cuts but he is renowned for some random form. 

Mackenzie Hughes sits around the top 50 bubble and he’ll be looking to cement his place in the 2025 Signature events via the ‘Aon Next 10’. Hughes has a win and two runner-ups under his belt at the RSM Classic. He could be a little overlooked by the market.

Adam Svensson has some of the best course form over the Seaside and Plantation courses at the RSM Classic. The Canadian golfer won here two years ago and was fifth last year. Currently, he is simmering form wise with plenty of finishes around the 30th spot and he looks generous at around the 50/1 mark with bet365.

We have a two-course rotation here at the RSM Classic with the Seaside course usually playing marginally harder than the Plantation course. The only real defence of the course is the runoffs around the greens if the wind blows. Aberg won the RSM Classic in 2023 on a score of 29-under par. Denny McCarthy is another one with a stellar record around the Seaside course owning three top 10 finishes and he comes in at 25/1 (bet365). 

You don’t need to necessarily hit the ball long off the tee at the RSM Classic. ‘Proximity to the hole’ will be an important stat as will putting from short range. Keith Mitchell ranks 11th in approach and 8th in ‘proximity to the hole’. He’s also third in ‘birdie average’ which will be another important metric this week. The ‘putting from 4-8 feet range’ statistic is of interest and we will find market leaders Denny McCarthy and Brian Harman 15th and 23rd respectively in that stat.

FIRST’s top tip for the RSM Classic

Keith Mitchell is likely double the price he would usually be in this market and he ranks high in all the course fit key metric departments we are looking at. The Sea Island resident can be backed at 50/1 EW.

Extra tips

Adam Svensson has the perfect course and current form concoction and the previous winner at the venue can be backed at 50/1 EW.

It’s also hard to look past Mackenzie Hughes’ form at the venue as well as his two top 10 finishes in his last three appearances. Back Mackenzie Hughes at 33/1 EW. 

RSM Classic: Value bets

Kevin Kisner made a surprise return to form at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship with a top 30 finish, although a poor Sunday cost him a much higher finish. A final round of 73 pushed him back into the pack. Wes Bryan has been one of the form men of the autumn events on the PGA Tour with four top 25 finishes out of five starts and an average finishing position of 17th place. He was 17th in the Bermuda Championship. Bryan ranks 11th in ‘total birdies’ and 12th in ‘proximity to the hole’. 

Garrick Higgo is a newer resident of Sea Island and is also coming into form with sixth and 17th place finishes in his last two golf tournaments as he looks to cement his place and full status on the PGA Tour for the 2025 season. He’ll need a big performance this week to do so. Higgo already has three DP World Tour wins under his belt as well as a PGA Tour victory.

Patton Kizzire is another resident of Sea Island. The winner of the 2024 Procore Championship ranks 8th in ‘proximity to the hole’ and 16th in approach shot performance, as well as 8th in ‘birdie average’. Kizzire has teed it up here in each of the ten most recent renewals of the RSM Classic tournament.

FIRST's top value tips for the RSM Classic

Wes Bryan is battling for his PGA Tour card and is one of the form men of the autumn events. He can be backed EW at 100/1. 

Local Resident Patton Kizzire is the same price and he knows the course more than most. You can back the recent tour winner at 100/1 EW. 

Garrick Higgo is another one fighting for his status and is starting to show his true form. He may be worth chancing at a whopping price of 200/1 EW.

Odds correct at the time of writing.