Nedbank Golf Challenge betting tips: Homa, Hojgaard and Lawrence set to shine in Sun City

Nedbank Golf Challenge: Things to consider

The Nedbank Golf Challenge is the third event on the 2025 DP World Tour opening swing and the third last event of the year; ahead of the Alfred Dunhill Championship and the Mauritius Open. 

The Nedbank Golf Challenge has come a long way since the days of it being a 12-man showpiece event at the Gary Player Country Club, at Sun City. 

Some of the world’s elite players will travel over to the 66-man golf tournament with $6m (£4.7m) up for grabs in the prize pool. Max Homa defends after blitzing the field here last year with a score of 19-under par, four strokes ahead of Nicolai Hojgaard and five strokes ahead of Thorbjorn Olesen.

The golf course at the Gary Player Country Club opened in 1979 and is acknowledged as South Africa’s premier test of golf in terms of being tough but fair and it has hosted the Nedbank Challenge golf tournament since 1981. At this no-cut event 4,000 Race to Dubai points are on offer

Nedbank Golf Challenge: Top of the market

Max Homa was fifth in ‘greens in regulation’ and sixth in approach when he won the 2023 Nedbank Golf Challenge and he is towards the top of the betting market at 14/1 with bet365 despite being in indifferent form. Last year he said he enjoyed his time in South Africa.

Tommy Fleetwood has a fabulous record at the Nedbank Challenge but has pulled out of the field. Fleetwood was second in approach and second in ‘greens in regulation’ when he won the Nedbank Golf Challenge in 2022 and was eighth in driving accuracy for his win at the Gary Player CC in 2019.

Corey Conners finished the PGA Tour season in fine form with several top 10 finishes, the last of which came in his final appearance at the Procore Championship. The Canadian has a very similar style to Tommy Fleetwood; he’s a tee-to-green machine. He was third in approach performance again on the PGA Tour in 2024. A negative point is that he has no experience here but I expect him to fancy the test and he comes in as a favourite at 10/1 with bet365.

The Gary Player Country Club course plays to a par 72 at 7,819 yards in length making it one of the longest courses on the DP World Tour. The course plays at high altitude with a gorgeous, majestic backdrop of the Pilanesberg mountains. The high altitude means that it plays over 10% shorter than its yardage.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (14/1 Sky Bet) has an excellent record here having won the South African Open at this course, but he hasn’t teed it up in a while. Will Zalatoris is another in a similar vein. He has little golf under his belt and no experience of the course, so I’d tend to swerve these two. 

With so much trouble lining the fairways and with tucked pins on kidney-shaped greens surrounded by deep bunkers ‘driving accuracy’, pinpoint iron play and distance control at altitude is the recipe for success at the Nedbank Golf Challenge in Sun City. 

A standout memory for me at the Nedbank Challenge is home favourite Branden Grace winning in 2017 and hitting all 18 greens in regulation play on the final day. 

Tom McKibbin might be one to watch this week given his tee-to-green game. He was 14th in ‘driving accuracy’ (which was +5.47 strokes ahead of field average) on the DP World Tour in 2024 and he finished 11th in the DP World Tour Championship. 

The emphasis here is on precision over power. Especially with the altitude illusion and we’ll be keeping an eye on the players towards the top of the market that excel in the ‘driving accuracy’ and ‘strokes gained approach’ stats. 

There’s an obvious theme of driving accuracy on the leaderboards at the Gary Player Country Club over the years.

Thriston Lawrence has been a sensation since his arrival on the DP World Tour having already won four times. The 28-year-old South African finished third in the Race to Dubai in 2024 and is now into the world’s top 50 golfers. 

FIRST’s top tip for the Nedbank Golf Challenge

Thriston Lawrence has a modest record at the Gary Player Country Club, but he has been flying this year. He could be hard to beat on home soil. Back the South African each way to win the tournament at (18/1 each way with Sky Bet).

Extra tips

Tom McKibbin was 11th in the DP World Tour Championship in Dubai off the back of a top-10 finish in Abu Dhabi. The Irishman looks to be progressing into form. Back him to win the golf tournament each way at 22/1 (Betfred).

Nedbank Golf Challenge: Value bets

The BMW Australian PGA Championship was won by Elvis Smylie which secured him a spot in the Nedbank Golf Challenge. Smylie moved on to the ISPS Handa Australian Open at Kingston Heath - one of Australia’s finest sand belt golf courses and continued his form, finishing t5.

The Australian Open was won by little-known Ryggs Johnston (55/1 each way with Betfair) who has also won a spot in the Nedbank Challenge.

Chinese golf sensation Wenyi Ding (50/1 Betfred) tees it up having been given an invite. He also made a strong showing at the Australian Open finishing t5 alongside Elvis Smylie and a bunch of others. All eyes will be on Ding to see what he can produce at the Nedbank Challenge. 

Casey Jarvis is next into the field and could be one to watch if he is in. The South African prodigy finished top 25 here in the South African Open in 2020 winning low amateur honours at the time. 

It’s Ewen Ferguson and Adrian Otageui I am looking at as potential outsiders here though. Ewen Ferguson was fifth in strokes gained off the tee at the Nedbank last year en route to a top 20 finish which followed a top 15 the year previous at Sun City. 

He was sixth in driving accuracy hitting 64.32% of fairways on the DP World Tour in 2024 which was +8.11 ahead of the field. 

Ferguson owns progressive 23 -19 form in the UAE at the end of the Race to Dubai in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and DP World Tour Championship respectively and could go well here at a good price.

Otaegui was first in ‘driving accuracy’ over the season finishing +12.32 shots ahead of the field average with a clip of 69.44% of fairways hit.

FIRST’s top value tips for the Nedbank Golf Challenge

Ewen Ferguson has a decent record at the Gary Player Country Club and he’s one of the most accurate players on tour. Back him each way to win the tournament at 40/1 each way with Skybet.

Adrian Otageui has a modest record of 19th and 33rd at the Nedbank Golf Challenge but the Spaniard is the most accurate player on tour and he comes here off the back of a 13th place finish in Dubai. Back the Spaniard each way at (66/1 bet365).

Odds correct at the time of writing.