Australian Open betting tips: Borges vs Alcaraz, Djokovic vs Machac and Osaka vs Bencic

We are less than a week into the 2025 Australian Open and there’s already been some shock eliminations and close calls for the top seeds. Perhaps the biggest shock in the men’s draw saw ninth seed Alexander Rublev crash out against 2024 Next Gen finals champion Joao Fonseca in round two.

The fifth seed Danill Medvedev also had a huge scare, having to come back to beat wildcard player Kasidit Samrej in a five-set epic.

However, the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have booked their places in round three already with relative ease. 

The biggest upset in the women’s draw saw 2024 Australian Open finalist Zheng Qinwen lose in the second round to German Laura Siegemund. Otherwise, the market favourites Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek keep progressing through the early stages.

Meanwhile, four-time grand slam champion Naomi Osaka certainly looks like she is enjoying something of a resurgence in Melbourne. 

Here are our Australian Open 2025 tips for some of the biggest matches in round three.

Nuno Borges vs Carlos Alcaraz (Friday)

World number three Carlos Alcaraz looks to have hit top form in the first two rounds at Melbourne Park. The classy Spaniard cruised to a three-set victory against Alexander Shevchenko in round one, winning 6-1; 7-6; 6-1.

The four-time Grand Slam winner then swatted Yoshihito Nishioka aside in just 81 minutes, dropping just five games and hitting 14 aces in a dominant display. Ultimately, Alcaraz’s break from November to January appears to be paying off as he looks to go beyond round three at the Australian Open for the first time in his career.

Up next for Alcaraz is Portuguese player Nuno Borges. The 27-year-old had a tricky opening test against France’s Alexandre Muller.

He dropped the first set 7-6 before rallying back to win the next three sets 6-3; 6-3; 7-5. Borges then showed his potential against the seeded players by eliminating 27th seed and one of the home favourites Jordan Thompson in straight sets.

However, the Portuguese player has lost all eight of his previous meetings against top 10 opponents and he may find the step-up in quality against Alcaraz too much of a struggle. 

FIRST’s top tip for Nuno Borges vs Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz was ruthless in his one-sided win against Nishioka and showed few weaknesses. Borges will face another level against in-form Alcaraz and the Spanish star can keep rolling on by beating Nuno Borges 3-0 on sets. (9/25 with Mr.Play)

Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac (Friday) 

Ten-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic has had a few slip-ups in the early rounds. The 37-year-old, who now has Andy Murray as his coach, won both of his opening-round matches in four sets against Nishesh Basavareddy and Jaime Faria. 

Despite less-than-convincing wins, Djokovic continues to perform consistently. In his victory over Faria, the Serbian made few mistakes. He landed 70% of first serves and held seven out of his 12 break points. With 24 grand slam titles to his name, Djokovic has the experience and quality to keep progressing at Melbourne Park.

Djokovic is now tied with Roger Federer for the most-ever Grand Slam matches played in ATP history (430), a reminder, if you needed it, of his world-class ability to perform at the top level. 

World number 25 Tomas Machac awaits Djokovic in round three at the Australian Open. The Czech player breezed through his first-round encounter with Sumit Nagal and won in straight sets. He then put in a gritty performance to edge former top 20 player Reilly Opelka in round two, eventually progressing after a five-set clash, which saw three tiebreaks.

Machac is no pushover against the top players either. In 2024, he defeated Alcaraz at the Shanghai Masters to reach the semi-final – his fourth career victory over a top-10 opponent. Machac also has a recent history of going deep in competitions, reaching the quarter-final stage or better in four of his last six ATP tournaments. 

FIRST’s top tip for Novak Djokovic vs Tomas Machac

This will be a proper test for Djokovic and he will rely on all his experience to get past the ever-improving Machac. This one is likely to go the distance and over 4.5 sets is anticipated in a potential Australian Open epic. (3/1 with Betway)

Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic (Friday) 

Former world number one Naomi Osaka has started 2025 in good form. The two-time Australian Open champion started the campaign with an impressive run to the ASB Classic final, before retiring through injury after winning the first set against Clara Tauson. The Japanese player dropped just one set in five matches during the competition.

After recovering from that injury scare, Osaka has carried this form into the Australian Open and progressed past former top-five player Caroline Garcia and 20th seed Karolína Muchova.

The triumph against Karolína Muchova was particularly dominant as she hit just one double fault and restricted her opponent to just two break points. Although Osaka looks in good form, she did need all three sets to get over the line in rounds one and two. 

Former world number four Belinda Bencic will face Osaka in round three. Bencic has found decent form in rounds one and two, progressing without dropping a set. The Swiss player showed her class in the first-round victory against former French Open winner Jelena Ostapenko. 

Bencic won in straight sets and took her chances when they arose by sealing four out of seven break points. The 27-year-old also has a good recent history of going to the mid-stages at grand slam events. In 2024, she reached round four at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the US Open. 

FIRST’s top tip for Naomi Osaka vs Belinda Bencic

Osaka and Bencic are well-matched heading into this eye-catching third-round tie and a hard-fought encounter is likely. With both players hitting good form, a long contest could unfold and over 2.5 sets has good value. (11/10 with Betway)

Odds correct at the time of writing.