Australian Open betting tips: Sinner vs Giron, Cerundolo vs De Minaur & Sabalenka vs Andreeva

The Australian Open 2025 third and fourth round matches will take place on Saturday and Sunday following some dramatic action in the opening week at Melbourne Park. 

In the men’s draw, there have been a few big shocks. Russian Daniil Medvedev, seeded fifth, was eliminated by world number 121 Learner Tien. Medvedev joins another top 10 player Andrey Rublev on the elimination list from week one, with his compatriot falling in the first round against Brazilian Joao Fonseca. 

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There have been no such upsets for favourites Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, though, who secured a safe passage to round three, while home favourite Alex de Minaur, seeded eight, also looks to be hitting good form. 

On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka continues to rattle her way through the early rounds at Melbourne Park in the women’s draw. Though, she does, face a tough test against 14th seed Mirra Andreeva next. The other women’s favourites, including Iga Swiatek,  Elena Rybakina and Jasmine Paolini have also sailed into round three of the Australian Open without dropping a set yet.

But will the favourites keep progressing as the Australian Open 2025 action continues this weekend? Let’s take a look at some of the most interesting clashes.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur (Saturday 3am)

Eighth seed Alex de Minaur has quietly been going about his business at the Australian Open and looks in good shape. The 25-year-old Australian player wasted no time booking his place in round three and has not dropped a set at Melbourne Park so far. In fact, de Minaur has lost just 19 games across his first two matches. 

De Minaur was particularly ruthless against Tristan Boyer in round two, dominating with 23 winners and conceding only one break point. The victory continues the Australian’s strong end to the 2024 season. 

He has now won all four matches he’s played in 2025 without losing a set and will be leaning on a consistent record of reaching three consecutive Grand Slam quarter-finals to keep progressing in Melbourne.

A third-round clash against Francisco Cerundolo is likely to pose a tougher test for de Minaur, and the Argentinian will be the Aussie’s first-seeded opponent in the tournament. Cerundolo controlled his first match against former top 20 player Alexander Bublik and won in straight sets. The 26-year-old then had a walkover victory against compatriot Facundo Díaz Acosta. 

Cerundolo has a pretty decent record against top 10 opponents too, winning 11 and losing 12. In addition, he caused a few upsets in the 2024 campaign, beating Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud twice at various stages in the season. 

FIRST’s top tip for Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur

De Minaur is the favourite here and home support should help the Australian player to get over the line. Cerundolo is a tricky opponent and, while de Minaur is expected to win, this encounter could easily produce over 3.5 total sets. 

(6/5 with Betway)

Jannik Sinner vs Marcos Giron (Saturday 8am)

Sinner has carried his excellent recent form into the Australian Open and the Italian breezed past Nicolas Jarry in the first round. 

The world number one then had a rare wobble in the first set against Tristan Schoolkate in round two, losing that 6-4. But he swiftly put that behind him in stunning fashion, winning the next three sets 6-4; 6-1; 6-3. 

It was the first time since the Shanghai Masters in September that Sinner has dropped a set in a competitive match during his ongoing 16-match winning run.

American Marcos Giron is Sinner’s next opponent in round three. Giron’s opening matches have been very closely contested at the Australian Open. He needed four sets to get past Yannick Hanfmann in round one, with two sets ending 7-5. 

Another even match unfolded against world number 38 Tomas Martín Etcheverry. Giron eventually edged into the third round, winning 7-5; 3-6; 7-5; 3-6; 6-4. 

Since turning pro in 2014, Giron has never progressed further than round three at a Grand Slam. He also suffered a straight sets defeat to Sinner when the pair met in 2023 at the Shanghai Masters.

FIRST’s top tip for Jannik Sinner vs Marcos Giron

Sinner is the clear favourite here and can get past Giron to continue his Australian Open title defence. However, gritty Giron has a knack for frustrating higher-ranked opponents and to look for value, we think this one could go over 30.5 games 

(59/50 with BetMGM)

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva (Sunday)

Reigning women’s champion Aryna Sabalenka is currently on course to defend her title and potentially seal a third consecutive win at Melbourne Park. The Belarusian beat Sloane Stephens and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the early rounds without dropping a set. 

However, the world number one was given an early scare against 22-year-old Dane Clara Tauson on Wednesday. The players played out an extremely even first set and Sabalenka just managed to win it 7-6 on a tiebreak. She then won 6-4 in the second set to secure her 30th win in her last 31 hard-court Grand Slam matches.

The highly rated 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva will take on Sabalenka in round four this Sunday. Russian Andreeva is a rising star in women’s tennis and has reached round three or better in five of her last 10 Grand Slam appearances. 

She has also lost just one of her previous seven matches - a 6-3, 6-2 final defeat to Sabalenka at the Brisbane International before the Australian Open. 

However, the teenager has beaten her upcoming opponent once in four previous meetings. Andreeva stunned Sabalenka across three sets in the 2024 French Open quarter-final in June 2024.

FIRST’s top tip for Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva

Sabalenka continues to prove herself as the dominant force in women’s hard-court tennis. 

However, 14th seed Andreeva could be the world number one’s first big test and there is good value on backing the Russian up-and-comer to take one set against Sabalenka. 

(13/10 with Betway)

(UK Time). Odds correct at the time of writing.