Australian Open betting tips: Sabalenka vs Badosa, Djokovic vs Zverev, Swiatek vs Keys and Sinner vs Shelton

It’s down to the business end of the final week of the Australian Open, with the final four remaining in both the men’s and women’s side of the draw.

That’s right, it’s semi-final showdown time – and boy are there some great clashes.

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The pressures of grand slam tennis compared to other tournaments on the tour can have a very different effect on a player’s motivations, mentality and ultimately their performances which can be a key component when betting on the sport too.

While some have had a relatively straightforward path to this stage, others have battled their way through, dumping out higher seeds along the way. 

So, settle in and get set to enjoy some intriguing last four battles. Who is going to make it through to the weekend’s showpiece finals?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa (Thursday 8:40am)

OK, let’s be straight up. This is not the women’s semi-final clash that most expected, or perhaps hoped for at the start of the competition. 

Many fans and pundits thought a showdown between two-time Australian Open winner Sabalenka and former grand slam winner Coco Gauff was the obvious semi-final. Paula Badosa, however, had different ideas and crashed the party, dumping Gauff out in the quarter-finals and booking her first ever semi-final spot at a major – and what a comeback that has been for the former world number 2.

A fractured spine put Badosa out of action for most of 2023, and her ranking dropped as low as 140.

But she recovered to reach the last eight of the US Open in September 2024, and has been solid in Melbourne, dropping just one set against 17th seed Marta Kostyuk on her way to the semis.

Badosa beat Gauff in straight sets 7-5; 6-4. The first set was closely contested before Badosa broke serve in the penultimate game. She then opened up a 5-2 lead in the second set, seeing the match out at the second time of asking on her serve.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, may have dropped her first set of the tournament – and her first in Melbourne set since 2023 – but she came through her quarter-final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-2; 2-6; 6-3.

And the Belarusian won’t be in the mood to let the chance for a third Australian Open title on the bounce slip easily.

FIRST’s top tip for Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa

Badosa reaching the Australian Open final would be something of a tennis fairytale. But, we see Sabalenka as too strong. That Gauff clash will have taken something out of Badosa, too. Expect a straight sets Sabalenka win (33/50 with Bet442).

FIRST’s top tip for Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys (Thursday 9:40am)

In the other women’s semi-final, number two seed Iga Swiatek faces 19th seed Madison Keys. 

While American underdog Keys has had an impressive run to the last four, most notably dumping Elena Rybakina out in the fourth round, she was pushed hard by Elina Svitolina in the quarter-finals. 

Swiatek, meanwhile, had a much easier passage into the semis, cruising past Emma Navarro 6-1, 6-2, winning an impressive 82% first serve points. We see Swiatek swiftly making it to the final in under 18.5 games (6/5 with Mr.Play).

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev (Friday)

Number two seed Zverev faces old rock Djok in an intriguing men’s semi-final clash on Friday. Djokovic is the last of the old guard (comprising himself, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal) to keep rumbling on.

And while most of the excitement has been about Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev this year, Djokovic has been going about his business perhaps slightly away from the spotlight than in past seasons.

The 37-year-old did, however, take a little time to find his feet in this year’s Australian Open. Quite used to seeing him swat earlier opponents to one side, Djokovic, seeded seven for the tournament, did drop sets against Nishesh Badavareddy and Portugal’s Jaime Faria in rounds one and two, before emerging as victor in four sets in both matches.

The third and fourth rounds were a different story, though, as Djokovic easily saw off Tomas Machac and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.

That gifted us a showdown with rising star Carlos Alcaraz in the last eight – after dropping the first set to the third seed, Djokovic recovered his poise to win in four 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.

Alcaraz was hoping to avenge his defeat against Djokovic in the 2024 Paris Olympics final. But it wasn’t to be for the Spaniard, who couldn’t capitalise when it looked like Djokovic was struggling with an injury early on in their latest clash.

Djokovic is going for a couple of records here. Should he win the tournament in Melbourne, he will become the oldest singles grand slam champion ever, and will have won a record 25th grand slam title.

Up next is Djokovic’s sternest test in the tournament so far – world number two Alexander Zverev.

And the German had to survive something of a scare to make it to the last four. Zverev may have taken the first two sets on a tie-break, but that is only half the story.

In fact, Zverev admitted he should have been two sets to love down in the match, having saved set points in each of those sets against 12th seed Tommy Paul. 

He did lose the third set to Paul and suffered five double faults throughout the match, but hit top form in the fourth to seal a 7-6; 7-6; 2-6; 6-1 victory.

In 12 clashes between Djokovic and Zverev, Djokovic has come out on top eight times. However, in their past four clashes, it’s two matches apiece, suggesting this will be close fought. 

FIRST’s top tip for Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev

Djokovic described his victory against Alcaraz in the last eight as one of his fiercest battles of all time. How much will that have taken out of the veteran? 

While it’s hard to bet against him, and despite Djokovic being the slight favourite going into the match, we think a combination of Zverev’s form and the Serbian own injury will be too much. It’s Zverev in four super close sets here. (79/20 with ZetBet).

FIRST’s top tip for Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton (Friday)

The second men’s semi-final sees top seed Jannik Sinner face 21st seed Ben Shelton. Sinner, going for back to back Australian Open titles, demolished Alex de Minaur in his last eight clash, winning 6-3; 6-2; 6-1.

It was brutal from the German, with an 85% win percentage on his first serve, and 80% win percentage on his second serve points. He limited de Minaur to just six successful service games. We can only see a straightforward Sinner win here. For some value, go under 33.5 games at 10/11 with BetMGM.

(UK Time). All odds correct at the time of writing.