Dallas Open betting tips: Tiafoe vs Nishioka, Arnaldi vs Davidovich Fokina, Opelka vs Norrie, Fritz vs Shapovalov

Seven Americans have progressed to the round of 16 at the Dallas Open, including defending champion Tommy Paul and top seed Taylor Fritz. 

They lead a star-studded field at the first edition of the tournament since it was upgraded to an ATP 500 event and moved to Ford Center at The Star in Frisco.

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Australian Open semi-finalist Ben Shelton impressed on Tuesday in his first appearance since the defeat by Jannik Sinner in Melbourne. 

The 22-year-old is eyeing his first indoor hard court title on the ATP Tour, having lost the final of the Swiss Indoors to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in October.

Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishioka (Thursday 6PM)

Another Japanese player stands in Frances Tiafoe’s way on Thursday after the fifth seed saw off Taro Daniel in the first round in Dallas.

Tiafoe has failed to win back-to-back matches at a competition since last year’s US Open, where he lost in five sets to Fritz in the semi-finals. He suffered some physical issues in Australia but looked as though those problems were behind him as he earned the three-set victory on Monday.

The American could not maintain the same level throughout the match, though, as he lost the second set before closing it out in the third. Tiafoe’s first-serve percentage has been below 60% in each of his outings in 2025, something he believes will ‘get better with time’.

Forty-nine places separate Tiafoe and his second-round opponent Yoshihito Nishioka in the rankings. But the underdog is coming off of three consecutive straight-set successes, the latest of which was particularly encouraging as he prevailed over Brandon Nakashima.

FIRST’s top tip for Frances Tiafoe vs Yoshihito Nishioka

After helping Japan defeat Great Britain in the Davis Cup and overcoming a home country hope in his Dallas opener, Nishioka can deliver another clean performance and go the distance with Tiafoe. 

Total sets: 3 sets - 11/8 (Spreadex)

Matteo Arnaldi vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Thursday 7PM)

It was a much-needed win for Matteo Arnaldi over Christopher Eubanks on Monday, with the world number 39 arriving in Dallas off the back of six defeats in eight matches.

Arnaldi’s triumph was straightforward, but that was largely due to the errors from Eubanks, who never seemed capable of making inroads on the Italian’s serve.

Still, it was a confidence booster for Arnaldi, who in 2024 lost both of his indoor matches while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina picked up three victories under a closed roof throughout the year. 

Davidovich Fokina’s run to the round of 16 at the Australian Open was a step forward after a challenging period that saw him slip outside the world’s top 50. 

The thigh injury he sustained in Australia does not appear to have had any lasting effects, as he dominated Brandon Holt on Monday without dropping his serve.

FIRST’s top tip for Matteo Arnaldi vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Davidovich Fokina played some excellent tennis in the first round, perhaps not feeling the pressure in Dallas this week. 

“This year, I have no goals - I'm trying to just play and enjoy the tournament," he said post-match.

A similar display on Thursday would likely be too much for Arnaldi, who still doesn’t look quite right.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: -1.5 game handicap - 10/11 (Matchbook)

Reilly Opelka vs Cameron Norrie (Thursday 9:30PM)

There is optimism that Reilly Opelka has completely recovered from the wrist and hip injuries that sidelined him for two years. 

The American, whose four ATP Tour titles all came in the United States, including the 2022 Dallas Open (at 250 level), fired 18 aces and was imperious with his forehand as he took out Alexander Shevchenko on Wednesday.

“The body is holding up well. A lot of progress made between Australia and here,” said the 6’11” player who holds a win over Novak Djokovic in 2025.

Cameron Norrie is also on the mend, albeit from a shorter-term ailment. The Brit pulled out of the Australian Open doubles through illness and withdrew from Great Britain’s Davis Cup tie against Japan for the same reason.

Two weeks separated those events, so it is unclear whether Norrie, who dug deep to beat Alex Michelsen despite some slow periods, is in full health and rhythm as he prepares to take on the big-serving Opelka.

FIRST’s top tip for Reilly Opelka vs Cameron Norrie

Opelka won his first four matches of the season in straight sets, one of which was against Djokovic before a back issue halted his momentum in Australia.

After three weeks off, he looked close to his explosive best last time out and can control this match with his relentless hitting.

Norrie leads the head-to-head 3-1, but doubts remain over his form and condition.

Reilly Opelka: -1.5 sets handicap - 9/5 (BetMGM)

Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov (Friday 2:10AM)

Tournament favourite Fritz made light work of his first-round encounter with Arthur Rinderknech, barely breaking a sweat as he dropped just seven points on serve and only two points behind his first serve.

Denis Shapovalov, who holds five competitive victories over Fritz in nine matches, also served well as he moved past Miomir Kecmanovic in three sets. 

The Canadian saved four of the five break points he faced, coming up big in the pivotal moments that ultimately decided the outcome of the match.

Shapovalov’s record against Fritz will give him belief. But the world number four has moved onto another level since many of those battles, as evidenced by the last two meetings between the pair, both won by Fritz in straight sets.

FIRST’s top tip for Taylor Fritz vs Denis Shapovalov

Fritz is used to lifting trophies stateside in the early part of the year, having notched back-to-back Delray Beach Open titles over the last two years.

The 27-year-old would love to regain the Indian Wells crown next month and can ease past Shapovalov as he builds himself up for the prestigious events around the corner.

Taylor Fritz: -1.5 sets handicap - 5/6 (BetMGM)

[UK Time]. Odds correct at the time of writing.