ATP Tour betting preview: Qatar ExxonMobil Open and Rio Open

Qatar ExxonMobil Open betting preview: Alcaraz the pick of the big hitters

Jannik Sinner’s doping ban has caused controversy and stolen the headlines before the Qatar ExxonMobil Open. But despite the world number one’s absence, the 2025 edition is stacked with elite quality.

Six of the ATP’s top 10 face off for the title, and Sinner’s absence could leave the door open for Carlos Alcaraz to win on his Qatar Open debut. 

The favourites 

Alcaraz is the leading favourite for the Qatar Open. The Spanish player looked strong at the 2025 Australian Open before losing in the quarter-finals to Novak Djokovic.

However, the 21-year-old’s response has been impressive. He took a short rest following early elimination in Melbourne before winning the Rotterdam Open.

Alcaraz secured his first title win of 2025 with a three-set victory over Alex De Minaur and the Spaniard has won nine of his 10 matches this season.

There were doubts about whether Djokovic would be fit to feature at the Qatar Open after his semi-final retirement against Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open. But the 37-year-old Serbian is ready to feature in Doha as he targets a third career title here.

Djokovic is in the same half of the draw as Alcaraz and the pair could meet in the semi-final. In addition, the 24-time grand slam winner will face a challenging first-round test against former world number six Matteo Berrettini.

Former winner to triumph once again?

Danill Medvedev, who won the 2023 Qatar Open title, is among the leading pack to challenge.  Medvedev will be desperate to improve on some patchy early-season form in Doha. 

The Russian was eliminated by 92nd seed Mattia Bellucci in the round of 16 at the Rotterdam Open and then crashed out in the semi-finals at the Marseille ATP 250.

The world number eight shouldn’t be written off in his current form, though. Historically, Medvedev builds momentum in the late winter and early spring hard court season. 

In the last two seasons, he has also performed well in the Middle East, reaching the 2024 Dubai Duty-Free Tennis Championship semi-finals and winning in Doha and Dubai in 2023. 

Top tip for Qatar ExxonMobil Open

Alcaraz responded to his early Australian Open elimination in impressive fashion and the Spaniard will have momentum ahead of his Doha debut. 

The world number three is the favourite to go all the way at the Qatar Open and there is decent value in backing Alcaraz to secure his second ATP title of 2025. (13/8 with Betway)

Extra tips

With Djokovic and Alcaraz on the same side of the draw, other high-ranking players will feel confident of a potentially smoother run to the 2025 Qatar Open final. 

Medvedev’s previous performances in Doha suggest he has what it takes to pick up form and reach his first final of 2025. 

The Russian needs a big performance after some shock results already this season, and we can see him delivering with another final run in Doha. (Medvedev to win title 7/1 with BetMGM).

Rio Open betting preview: Zverev the dominant force

The ATP Rio Open is set to bring high-stakes tennis back to Brazil, as the only ATP 500 event in South America and the sole ATP tour event in Brazil since 2020. 

World number two Alexander Zverev leads a group of talented potential challengers in Rio, but can the German see off a likely challenge from Joao Fonseca and Lorenzo Musetti?

The favourites 

Zverev enters the Rio Open as the top seed, hungry to bounce back after a quarter-final exit in Buenos Aires last week. 

Despite that setback, the German remains one of the tour’s most consistent players, having reached the Australian Open final last month. 

Clay is also a strength for Zverev and eight of his 23 titles have come on this surface, including the prestigious Rome Masters last season. 

However, the quick transition from hard courts to clay has already proven a challenge this year. If he can shake off any rust and rediscover his dominant baseline game, he’s undoubtedly a top contender. 

The world number two’s road to the title could include a quarter-final clash with Chile’s Nicolas Jarry, a rematch of last year’s Rome final. If Zverev can navigate this potentially tricky tie, he can build momentum and make a run for his first ATP title of 2025. 

The challengers

Just a year ago, the 18-year-old Joao Fonseca stunned the Rio crowd by making the quarter-finals as a relative unknown. Fast forward to 2025, and Fonseca is now an ATP champion, having claimed his first tour-level title in Buenos Aires. 

The Brazilian’s confidence is sky-high, and the home crowd support could give the teenager extra motivation here. 

Fonseca opens against Alexandre Muller and could face eighth seed Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the second round, a player he’s already beaten this season. 

If the young Brazilian can handle the pressure, another deep run at his home tournament could be on the cards. However, he could be upset by Zverev in a possible eye-catching semi-final. 

Former grand slam finalist Musetti is certainly a dangerous opponent on his day. But his recent form and fitness raises some questions. 

The Italian was forced to withdraw from Buenos Aires due to a calf injury, leaving uncertainty about his physical condition. However, when fully fit, Musetti is a threat to anyone on this surface. 

Mussetti is seeking his first ATP title since 2022, and with a favourable opening-round draw against a qualifier, he has a chance to play himself into form. 

His half of the draw includes tough opponents like Alejandro Tabilo and defending champion Sebastian Baez, meaning he’ll need to be at his best to contend.

Top tip for the Rio Open 

Zverev’s form and experience on clay make him the safest bet for the title. His powerful baseline game and consistency should see him through deep into the tournament, and if he brings his A-game, he will be tough to beat. (11/2 with BetMGM)

Extra tips 

Ultimately, second seed Musetti will be relieved that Zverev and Fonseca are in the top half of the 2025 Rio Open draw. 

Suppose the Italian can navigate through the opening rounds and past a potential quarter-final against seventh seed Pedro Martinez. In that case, he is likely to have eyes on a likely showpiece final against Zverev or Fonseca. 

Fitness is the big question mark surrounding Musetti and his chances of success in Brazil, but withdrawal from the Buenos Aires quarter-final will have offered the 22-year-old extra recovery time. (Musetti to win title 10/1 with BetMGM)

Odds correct at the time of writing.