Indian Wells 2025 betting tips: Who to watch for with Sinner serving doping ban

Indian Wells, the well-loved, unofficial ‘fifth grand slam’ is off to a hot start this week with three exciting storylines to watch out for. 

Over two weeks, tennis fans, punters and casual observers alike can look forward to two weeks of action, and we’ll see if Iga Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz can hold onto their respective titles.

However, one player who isn’t in the draw is currently dominating the conversations – Jannik Sinner. The world number one is serving a suspension for doping violation that happened a year ago at the Indian Wells event. 

So, the stage is set for this year’s tournament, with three interesting storylines  – Novak Djokovic could meet Alcaraz in the quarter finals; Sabalenka with the smoothest track ‘on paper’; and Raducanu returning to court after her Doha stalker incident.

ATP draw: Djokovic and Alcaraz lead the favourites

Looking at the men’s side, the race is on the player who gains the most in Sinner’s absence. 

On paper, the top two seeds appear to dominate, and Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz can use this tournament to earn enough points to challenge Sinner. 

With the Indian Wells and Miami combination, affectionately known as the ‘sunshine double’ now here, either of these two players could gain enough points to knock the Italian off his perch. 

We’re projecting that Djokovic and Alcaraz will produce a repeat performance of the Australian Open quarter-final showdown; on that occasion, the Serbian won in four sets. 

While Djokovic showed his class in a four-set whipping of Alcaraz in Melbourne, we’re expecting Alcaraz to bounce back on the Californian hardcourt.

Djokovic lost in the first round of Doha. Alcaraz, on the other hand, is on finer form, winning in Rotterdam and making it to the quarter finals in Doha. 

More importantly, Alcaraz has a soft spot for Indian Wells, where he’s a two-time champion and beat Sinner for the championship last year. 

Alcaraz is a favourite going into Indian Wells, but his first test will be Denis Shapovalov, which could be a showstopper with the players’ fierce ball-striking skills. 

The underdog is not to be feared and can often expose the risk vs reward dilemma for bettors. With Sinner out of the picture and Djokovic struggling with form and confidence lately, were looking at Alcaraz as one of the heavy favourites. 

Here are some interesting tidbits about the Alcaraz-Djokovic rivalry: The Serb leads the head-to-head 5-3 and has won their last two matches. 

However, these two have never played at Indian Wells. With the current mix of momentum and stats, Alcaraz as a slight edge over Djokovic and can win their potential quarters showdown and go all the way to the finals.

WTA draw: Sabalenka with the easiest path? 

On the women’s side, the race to the top is widely open, yet again. At the start of the year, it looked as if the WTA would be dominated by Aryna Sabalenka. 

Or perhaps it was to be the top three women players – Sabalenka, Swiatek and Coco Gauff – to share titles between them throughout 2025. 

However, the women’s ‘big three’ have only won one singles title between them so far this year, and none of them made the Australian Open final. 

Sabalenka, a 2023 Indian Wells finalist, has a clearer path on paper in this tournament – until she hits the last eight. 

There, she could find Aussie Open champion Madison Keys waiting before a potential semi-final against Gauff and then Swiatek in the final. 

Swiatek, who was last year’s finalist, was also in the finals two years ago giving her the experience here.

Among the three, Gauff has the trickiest path. 

She’ll probably start against Emma Raducanu on Friday, then square up against Maria Sakkari, a former BNP Paribas Open finalist, in the third round. Then, potentially face Amanda Anisimova, this year’s Doha champion. 

This is often the consideration for players but also for keen bettors when comparing grand slam events vs non-grand slam events.

Sabalenka would then, as mentioned, be probably lurking in the semi-finals. That’s a tall order for a player who failed to win a match in Dubai and Doha.

FIRST’s top tip for Indian Wells

On the men’s side, we can’t see further than Alcaraz here. Confident at Indian Wells, and in solid form, there might not be much value in the bet but it is definitely worth a look.

Meanwhile, it seems Sabalenka could be penciled in to reach the Indian Wells women’s final - if she can navigate her way through the early rounds. 

On top of the WTA rankings since October, Sabalenka has had a rough start in 2025. Still, she’s the seeded first in all her events in the last few months.  

This will be her fifth appearance in the tourney, and her best run was in the 2023 finals, where she lost against Elena Rybakina.

Pick: Alcaraz to win Indian Wells (13/8 with BetMGM)

Pick: Sabalenka to win Indian Wells (9/2 with BetMGM) 

FIRST’s top tip for WTA Indian Wells 

Watch out for Emma Raducanu spoiling the big three party in Indian Wells. 

Raducanu is expected to play Gauff in the second round, if she manages to get past Moyuka Uchijima, a Japanese player that’s ranked three places above. 

Gauff and Raducanu have met once, with Gauff winning a tight match in the second round of the Australia Open two years ago. Gauff, last year’s semi-finalist, is one of the six seeded Americans in Indian Wells.

Interestingly, Raducanu is coming off a traumatising ordeal in Doha last month. 

So, all eyes are on the Brit, who is expected to breeze past Uchijima tomorrow.

Pick: Raducanu to beat Uchijima (7/20 with Betway)

Extra Tips

There are a few more early-round matches at the Indian Wells that are worth checking out. And one hot match features a potential Djokovic opponent – Nick Kyrgios.  

The Serb is off to a rough start of the year, coming off an injury in the Australian Open, and he’s reeling from a first-round shocker in Doha.

Although he’s a five-time champion at Indian Wells, he has struggled past the fourth round in the last few years. Djokovic may face off with Kyrgios, if he manages to win his opener.

Elsewhere, Jack Draper comes into Indian Wells in top form, missing out in the final of the Qatar Open to Andrey Rublev, putting a run together that saw him beat Jiri Lehecka in the semi finals. 

Draper could well be a decent outside bet for Indiana Wells.

Pick: Jack Draper to win Indian Wells (25/1 with BetMGM)

Odds correct at the time of writing.