Indian Wells betting tips: Draper vs Brooksby, Shapovalov vs Alcaraz, Rune vs Tsitsipas

The favourites have not had it all their own way at Indian Wells in the first week so far, with both Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic crashing out in their opening matches.

That leaves world number three and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz as the clear favourite to make it three back-to-back titles at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

Having breezed past Quentin Halys, Alcaraz faces a tricky round of 32 opponent in Denis Shapovalov, who won the Dallas Open last month and also enjoyed a run to the semi-finals in Acapulco.

Daniil Medvedev, runner-up at this event two years on the trot, only needed to play two games against Alex Michelsen on Sunday as the American retired early due to illness. 

The Russian will be fresh heading into his mouth-watering match with Tommy Paul.

Jack Draper vs Jenson Brooksby (Monday 6pm)

Jack Draper’s victory over rising star Joao Fonseca was no surprise, but the manner of the Brit’s triumph was somewhat unexpected as he dropped just four games against the teenager.

The 23-year-old is heavy odds-on to beat Jenson Brooksby. But the American, who returned in January after two years out with a ban for missing drug tests, impressed in his success over Felix Auger-Aliassime last time out and undoubtedly has the game to trouble Draper.

“I still have a long way to go. I can improve my fitness and mentally,” said Draper after his match with Fonseca, and he is absolutely right. 

Brooksby’s baseline consistency could drag Draper into a tough physical battle, which is the last thing he needs, given his continuous hip issues.

FIRST’s top tip for Jack Draper vs Jenson Brooksby

It took Brooksby a while to get up to speed in his first-round encounter with Benjamin Bonzi, but after seeing off the Frenchman, his level went up a notch in his straight sets win over Auger-Aliassime.

He didn’t drop his serve once on Saturday. Brooksby can display the same solidity against Draper and cover the 4.5-game handicap.

Game handicap: Brooksby +4.5 - 1/1 (Betway)

Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz (Tuesday 1am)

Shapovalov’s career is back on an upward trend after his progress had stalled due to a series of injuries. 

Having dropped out of the top 100 in 2023, the Canadian is back in the top 32 and there is optimism that he can move towards the top 10, which he reached in 2020.

A battle with Alcaraz in the evening session at Indian Wells will truly test his current standard. 

The slow court surface suits the Spaniard, but Shapovalov has also taken a liking to the conditions, stating: “I have time to have my big wind-ups for my shots, but at the same time, I feel like I can play very aggressive.”

Alcaraz’s only straight sets wins in completed matches this season have come against players ranked outside the top 32. 

He admitted it was difficult to control his emotions and nerves on Saturday, so if Shapovalov keeps his concentration, he could have some joy.

FIRST’s top tip for Denis Shapovalov vs Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz is rightly a comfortable favourite, but I don’t believe the total games line reflects how well Shapovalov has been playing in 2025. 

The underdog can hold his own on Monday night and rack up at least nine games in what could be a relatively close affair.

Total games: Over 20.5 - 20/23 (BetMGM)

Holger Rune vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (Wednesday)

Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Matteo Berrettini for the second time in as many weeks to advance to the last 16 at Indian Wells. 

The Greek lost only two points behind his first serve and didn’t face a break point all afternoon as he picked up his seventh consecutive victory, five of which came at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, where he lifted his first title since April.

Many players have spoken about the unusual bounce on the new surface, but Tsitsipas has likened it to his preferred clay and that showed with his impeccable timing on Sunday.

Holger Rune’s performance against Ugo Humbert was not as polished, but still worthy of credit given how well he closed it out.

FIRST’s top tip for Holger Rune vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has seemingly overcome his dip in form and looks assured in all areas of his game with a renewed sense of confidence. 

Serving as well as he is, it will be far from easy for Rune to make inroads. 

The Dane has lost five of his last 10 matches, and another defeat could be on the cards here against the resurgent eighth seed.

Game handicap: Tsitsipas -1.5 - 4/5 (Spreadex)

Value on the outsiders?

Alcaraz is five wins away from securing a third Indian Wells title, and there are some potentially tricky ties along the way. 

Still, several bookmakers have priced him as short as 11/10 in the outright market, which is far too short.

Tsitsipas, meanwhile, is already in the last 16, and if he can sweep Rune aside, he would be facing a quarter-final against either qualifier Yosuke Watanuki or Tallon Griekspoor, who he beat comfortably in Dubai.

The draw could open up nicely for the Greek, and even a potential semi-final with Medvedev would not be too daunting, as the former US Open champion is yet to win more than two matches at any event in 2025.

Ben Shelton has struggled to follow up his run to the semi-finals at the Australian Open, but the American thrives on the big stage and could reignite his season this week. 

His serve was on-song in the win over Mariano Navone, and it was the most capable he has looked on return since Melbourne.

FIRST’s top outright tips for Indian Wells

Tsitsipas is playing his best tennis since the beginning of last year’s clay court swing and is worth chancing as an each-way selection at 14/1 with Betway.

Shelton’s price is also appealing at 30/1 with BetMGM. He is in the tougher half of the draw but doesn’t need to worry about Alcaraz until the semi-finals.

[UK Time] Odds correct at the time of writing.