Miami Open 2025 betting tips: Zverev vs Thompson, Djokovic vs Musetti, Ruud vs Cerundolo

The first week of the ‘sunshine double’ is in the books – and it provided plenty of shocks.

Of those who were seeded inside the top 10, only four of those will head into the second week. Tournament top-ranked Alexander Zverev remains, but second seed Carlos Alcaraz doesn’t. 

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The Spaniard was knocked out by David Goffin (unseeded) in three sets after the Belgian won 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. It followed on from a disappointing Indian Wells, where the Spaniard was beaten in the semi-final to eventual winner Jack Draper.

Draper has also had a 2025 Miami Open to forget, as he was eliminated in the second round by unseeded Jakub Mensik in straight sets (7-6, 7-6). Having managed to break into the top seven of the ATP World Rankings, seeing him ousted so early into the competition was a shock. 

His Indian Wells final opponent, Holger Rune, is also out of the Miami Open, beaten in the second round to Reilly Opelka (who entered the competition with a protected ranking).

Seeded players have fared badly during the tournament. Of the 32 seeds, just half of those remain at the beginning of the second week. 

Of the 16 to have been knocked out, 11 have been beaten by unseeded players or qualifiers. Daniil Medvedev (seeded 7) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (seeded 9) are among those out.

Still, there are many top names still in play. Zverev is one, as are three others who make the top five seeds. Taylor Fritz (five), Novak Djokovic (four), and Casper Ruud (five) are all in the third and fourth rounds respectively.

These names make it interesting when trying to look for a potential champion of the event, as Djokovic has six victories. Still, his last was in 2016, while Zverev (2018 against John Isner) and Ruud (2022 against Alcaraz) were beaten finalists. 

Jannik Sinner was the champion heading into the event but had to withdraw ahead of it because of his suspension.

Alexander Zverev vs Jordan Thompson (Monday 4pm)

Alexander Zverev has only played one match in the 2025 Miami Open and came through it comfortably. He defeated Brit Jacob Fearnley in straight sets 6-2, 6-4 and made light work of him. 

He managed to land 91% of first serves and only dropped seven points on his serve against his opponent, making him a man in fine form.

Unsurprisingly, the world number two is the heavy favourite to power past Jordan Thompson on Monday in the third round. If he does as is expected, he’ll face either Francis Tiafoe or Arthur Fils in the fourth round.

Thompson started his tournament slowly, losing the first set in his eventual victory against Marcos Giron (3-6, 6-4, 7-5) but has since picked up with his performances. The Aussie defeated Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets (7-6, 7-6) to advance and meet the German. So could betting on the underdog be the value play this week?

FIRST’s top tip for Alexander Zverev vs Jordan Thompson

The pair have met in the past, with contrasting results. Zverev managed to win the Citi Open in 2017 but dropped the first set. 

Thompson would defeat the German at the Mifel Open in 2024 by taking the first and third sets in the semi-final, leading to Zverev calling his own performance “horrible”. 

He beat the Australian later in the year at the National Bank Open, winning in straight sets in the second round of the competition.

This can make the match a very interesting proposition for bettors. With it happening in two of the previous three meetings, Thompson winning a set could be a good bet.

Pick: Thompson to win a set: 6/4 at Betway

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti (Tuesday)

Since leaving the court to injury in the Australian Open semi-final, Djokovic hasn’t been able to find too much rhythm. He’s played a handful of matches but hasn’t really found his best form.

His best performances have arguably come in the Miami Open this year. He was beaten in his first match at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells to unseeded opponents, posing questions about how the Serbian would perform in Florida. 

However, he has put them to rest for now. He has managed to win both games in straight sets so far, booking a place in the round of 16 against Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian will be his toughest challenge since the major. However, Musetti has tended to drop the first set in this competition, doing so in each of his two matches.

FIRST’s top tip for Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti

The two have faced each other eight times on the ATP circuit, with the Serbian dominating. He has won seven of those clashes, with four of those meetings happening in 2024. Of those four, Djokovic won each of them in straight sets. Musetti won his only match in 2023, at the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo. 

While Djokovic is a heavy favourite to win this contest, Musetti is 16-11 on hard courts over the past 12 months. That would suggest he can do enough to challenge the Serbian, especially as the former world #1 continues to try and find his form.

Pick: Total number of sets: Three at 3/2 with Mr.Play

Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo (Tuesday)

Another potentially intriguing round of 16 contest scheduled for Tuesday is the one between Casper Ruud and Francisco Cerundolo (ranked 23). 

The Norwegian reached the final of the Dallas Open (lost to Denis Shapovalov in straight sets) but has found life difficult in the early part of the season.

He has discovered some form in Miami, beating Miomir Kecmanović in three sets, dropping the first, and Alejandro Tabilo in straight sets. Ruud has found his range in terms of aces, recording nine and 11, respectively. However, Cerundolo could be his hardest challenge so far.

The Argentine is yet to drop a set, having beaten Alexandre Muller and Tommy Paul. In the first game, he dropped just three games on his way to victory. Against the American, he needed a tie-break to seal the win but did so comprehensively.

FIRST’s top tip for Casper Ruud vs Francisco Cerundolo

It could be a game of back-and-forth between the pair, which could see an interesting dynamic take place. It wouldn’t be a surprise if we saw the first set need settling through a tie-break, given the form of both men.

Cerundolo may not have dropped a set at this point, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Ruud came into his own later in the contest. Expect the Argentine to take the first set but then to see the Norwegian come through the match like he did against Kecmanović.

Pick: First set/Match: Francisco Cerundolo/Casper Rudd 13/2 at Highbet

Favourites to win 2025 Miami Open

Although many have been eliminated in the early stages, four of the top five seeds remain. Unsurprisingly, they remain among the favourites to win the competition.

Betway has Djokovic (33/10) as the slight favourite over Zverev (9/2) with Fritz at 10/1. A lot of tennis is still to be played, and with the way things are going, some of these odds might be considered a little short for some.

FIRST’s top outright tips for Miami Open

Zverev’s outright win odds of 9/2 at Betway make him an interesting proposition. He has a favourable draw compared to others should he progress, which makes the German a better bet than Djokovic.

Pick: Zverev to win Miami Open - 9/2 with Betway

[UK Time] Odds correct at the time of writing.