ATP Monte Carlo betting preview: Tsitsipas man to beat but Ruud in tune

The first of three clay court Masters 1000 competitions before the French Open takes place in Monte Carlo this week as Stefanos Tsitsipas aims for his fourth title in five years in the principality.

Like many other leading contenders, this will be the Greek’s first foray onto clay this season - a transition that often brings surprising results. With the French Open now on the player's minds, bettors must take into consideration the mindset of betting on grand-slams to non-grand slams in the lead up to a major. 

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Jannik Sinner is not in the field as he enters the final month of his ban, but only one other top 10 player, Taylor Fritz, is absent from Monaco.

Former Monte Carlo winners Stan Wawrinka and Fabio Fognini received wild cards and could face Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz respectively in round two.

The favourites

Alcaraz starts as the clear tournament favourite, but there are doubts over the Spaniard’s form, which he will be keen to silence. 

The 21-year-old has only played Monte Carlo once and lost his only match to Sebastian Korda. Off the back of a shock early exit at the hands of David Goffin in Miami, Alcaraz could do with a winning run in Monaco, or else his position in the world’s top three could soon come under threat.

It could get awkward for him straight away, though. Unless Fognini can cause a first-round upset, Francisco Cerundolo would be Alcaraz’s first opponent. The Argentine is a genuine force on clay, with two titles to his name on the surface. This is where the underdog in the betting could be the value play to find the edge in the markets.

Djokovic won the Monte Carlo Masters in 2013 and 2015, but has not reached a final at the event in eight subsequent attempts. The Serb came within one match of notching his 100th career title in Miami a week ago but lost two straight tie-breaks in the final against Jakub Mensik.

It was still an encouraging week for the three-time French Open champion, who insists he still feels physically good.

Tsitsipas’ record at this venue means he is the third-favourite in the betting. He had been in a slump since his last Monte Carlo title, but victory in Dubai earlier this year catapulted him back into the top 10.

Court form and some recent signs of life make Tsitsipas a potentially appealing betting proposition, but there are tough hurdles for him to overcome, including a potential third-round match with 2023 finalist Holger Rune.

Casper Ruud holds an edge over the other top contenders thanks to his triumph over the weekend at an Ultimate Tennis Showdown event on clay, giving him valuable momentum heading into this tournament.

Twice a French Open runner-up and a finalist in Monte Carlo last year, Ruud should always be taken seriously on his best surface. His success at UTS Nimes was the ideal preparation for an event in which he has a very winnable quarter.

Alexander Zverev is the first to admit that his post-Australian Open performance levels have not been good enough by his standards. 

The world number two has had a taste of clay court tennis this year as he opted to play in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro in February before resuming the hard-court swing.

He didn’t get very far in either event in South America, nor did he progress as far as he would have liked in Indian Wells or Miami.

FIRST’s top tip for ATP Monte Carlo

Alcaraz has been far too patchy to get on board with at his price, while Djokovic tends to get better deeper into the clay court season. That leaves us with some options at bigger prices for the headline selection, and preference goes to Ruud.

Tsitsipas was considered, but Ruud has the more favourable draw and has already adjusted to the surface having played three matches at UTS Nimes.

Pick: Casper Ruud to win ATP Monte Carlo (14/1 with Spinzwin)

Extra tip

Zverev is a risky selection based on his struggles this season, but while there are concerns over many of the others towards the top of the market, I’m happy to take a chance on the world number two at a double-figure price.

The German has won four Masters 1000 competitions on clay, and competing near his home could provide the perfect spark as he looks to rediscover his best tennis.

Pick: Alexander Zverev to win ATP Monte Carlo (11/1 with BetMGM)

The value picks

Andrey Rublev won in Monte Carlo in 2023, two years after he was a losing finalist against Tsitsipas. A Madrid Open winner in 2024, too, the Russian is one to watch, especially if Alcaraz, who is in his quarter, bows out early.

Rune, who Rublev beat in the 2023 final, will also fancy his chances of another strong showing in the principality. 

The Dane lost in three sets to Sinner in the quarter-finals here 12 months ago, having beaten the Italian in the semis on Court Rainier III 12 months prior.

Opportunities could arise for surface specialists Lorenzo Musetti and Arthur Fils, both of whom are listed at big odds. Cerundolo is also well-fancied on clay, but would need to see off Alcaraz if he were to go on a charge this week.

FIRST’s value pick for ATP Monte Carlo

Rublev defeated Ben Shelton on Friday at UTS Nimes before taking eventual champion Ruud to sudden death. 

It was valuable, competitive clay court action for the world number nine, who is volatile but has the upside to win a Masters 1000 event on clay, as he has done in each of the last two years.

Pick: Andrey Rublev to win ATP Monte Carlo each-way (22/1 with Spinzwin)

Also worth considering

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favoured to beat Shelton on Monday, and that could set the Spaniard on his way for a deep run. 

He hasn’t been great on clay in the past two years, but in 2021, he made the last eight at ATP Monte Carlo and Roland Garros, before reaching the final in Monaco in 2022.

The best player he would need to beat to get to the quarter-finals is Jack Draper, who, despite being world number six, is not known for his clay court prowess.

Pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win ATP Monte Carlo each-way (50/1 with Ladbrokes)

Odds correct at the time of writing.