ATP Clay Court Championship betting preview: Paul the pick on home soil in Houston

With the Spring swing of Indian Wells and Miami done for another year, attention on the ATP Tour turns to the looming clay court season.

The second major of the season at the French Open is on the horizon and preparations look set to begin for many this week in Houston. It’s important to consider the key factors when betting on grand slam events vs. non-grand slam events. 

Love tennis? Find the best tennis betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

Transitioning from the speed of the hard courts to the grind of the clay instantaneously is never easy for players but the US Men’s Clay Court Championship has been a fixture on the ATP Tour for over a century.

Big name past winners include the likes of Andre Agassi and Tommy Haas and there are plenty of top performers in with a shout in Houston in 2025.

Who could contend?

Having cracked the top 10 for the first time in 2025, confidence is sure to be high in the Tommy Paul camp currently.

Clay is not his favourite surface, but his all-around game is becoming more refined under coach Brad Stine, and he is here in Houston to build momentum ahead of the clay court campaign.

As the top seed here in Houston, he is the man to beat and stands at 7/2 to lift the trophy with Mr.Play.

Another home hope here in Houston is Frances Tiafoe, a previous winner of this event back in 2023.

Tiafoe’s enigmatic playing style often makes him hard to predict but he is protected a touch by his seeding of two here this week.

He knows what it takes to win this event, having also finished runner-up here last season. If he gets on a roll, he could be tough to stop at 5/1 with ZetBet.

While there is no disputing the pedigree of either Paul or Tiafoe, neither man would claim to be a clay-court specialist and even if they are short-priced live threats, could well actually be underdogs in the betting.

However, Argentine Tomas Martin Etcheverry lives for the clay court season and he too has reached the final previously here in Houston.

This guy runs all day and loves the ‘dirt’, making him a serious contender at 8/1 with BetMGM.

FIRST’s top tip for US Men’s Clay Court Championship

Coming straight to Houston off the back of Miami won’t be too easy for those who don’t love the clay. Tomas Martin Etcheverry could benefit, as one of the few clay-court specialists in the draw.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry to win US Men’s Clay Court Championship (outright) – 8/1 with BetMGM.

Extra tips

The position of this event on the calendar makes it tricky to ascertain where certain players are at, but Alejandro Tabilo is becoming one of the most consistent performers on tour. 

Good results in recent weeks have seen the Chilean soar up the rankings, he is seeded third here and looks a snip at 3/1 to reach the semi-finals with Vegasland.

Another Chilean catches the eye too, with Cristian Garin looking to rekindle some form, at a tournament he won back in 2019.

Poor showings at the back end of 2024 have left Garin languishing on the challenger tour, but he is a class act on clay and he is an outside shot to go all the way this week at 33/1 with Mr.Play.

Odds correct at the time of writing.