ATP betting tips: Dubai Duty Free and Mexican Open preview

ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships betting preview: Humbert to power his way to another title?

Part two of the Middle East double-header on the ATP Tour sees six of the world’s top 16 head to Dubai for their final stop before the Sunshine Double in March.

Courts at the Aviation Club Tennis Centre are significantly quicker than what the players experienced in Qatar last week. The change in conditions has resulted in several Doha finalists bowing out early in Dubai in recent years.

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The favourites

Daniil Medvedev was crowned Dubai Duty Free Tennis champion in 2023 and the Russian is the favourite to reclaim the title. 

He arrives off the back of a mixed bag in Doha, where he battled past compatriot Karen Khachanov and dominated Zizou Bergs before retiring against Felix Auger Aliassime, citing food poisoning as his reason for pulling out after losing the first set.

Alex De Minaur could not convert his match point against Andrey Rublev in the Doha quarter-finals, as he endured his first loss of the season to a player ranked below him.

The Australian’s only other defeats in 2025 have been at the hands of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. With Sinner banned and Alcaraz sitting out this week, the path for De Minaur to lift his first trophy of the year is relatively clear.

However, Rublev will have something to say about that as he looks to build on last week’s success. The world number nine, who won in Dubai in 2022, is in the same half of the draw as De Minaur and says he feels ‘powerful again’ after notching his 17th career title.

Court form to play a part?

Ugo Humbert did not drop a set as he cruised to victory at the Open 13 Provence in Marseille earlier this month. The 26-year-old then withdrew from the Qatar Open, prioritising his physical preparation for the defence of his Dubai crown.

That may turn out to be a wise move, as the surface speed he experienced in southern France is similar to what lies ahead this week.

Further down the betting board is Stefanos Tsitsipas, who lost in the first round of the Australian Open and has only won twice in five matches this year.

The two-time grand slam finalist enters the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships for the first time since 2020, when he reached the final for the second year on the bounce, both in losing efforts to Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

Perhaps a return to a venue where he has played well in the past will spark a much-needed upturn in form.

FIRST’s top tip for Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

De Minaur has shown an excellent ability to beat the individuals he is expected to, and that might be all it takes for him to head to Indian Wells following a tournament win, just as he did a year ago when he triumphed in Acapulco.

The Doha to Dubai turnaround may prove challenging for Rublev, so the second seed De Minaur takes preference at a very winnable event. (6/1 with Betway)

Extra tips

Humbert’s decision to pull out of Doha was telling. Having held onto his Marseille title, he will take some stopping as he attempts to accomplish the same feat in Dubai. (10/1 with Betway)

Tsitsipas is in a slump but he has come through similar struggles before and should not be written off. At a huge price, the Greek is worth taking a chance on with smaller each-way stakes. (25/1 with Betway)

ATP Mexican Open betting preview: Zverev makes hard court return

With 2023 and 2024 champion De Minaur opting to play in Dubai this week, the Mexican Open title is set to change hands. 

Alexander Zverev, winner in Acapulco in 2021, is bidding to carve his name on the trophy again after suffering disappointing defeats in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro in February.

The favourites

Zverev makes his first hard court appearance since the Australian Open final and is favoured to receive the giant silver gourd trophy. 

The German’s outings on clay didn’t go to plan earlier this month, but as he pointed out in Rio, it often takes him a few weeks to adjust to that surface and he didn’t get the chance to do that in South America.

Tommy Paul is in the field for the first time since Dallas, having missed Delray Beach with a shoulder problem. The American was runner-up at the 2023 Mexican Open but lost in the first round to Jack Draper last year.

Next in the betting is Ben Shelton, who was on the wrong end of a big upset at the Dallas Open as he lost to Jaume Munar. Denis Shapovalov went on to deservedly win that title and he comes into this tournament well-rested.

Scandi pair to go deep?

Casper Ruud and Holger Rune played out an entertaining three-set encounter in Acapulco in 2024, with the Norwegian prevailing before losing to De Minaur in the final.

Ruud was also a finalist in Dallas last time out and is a more formidable force on hard courts than he once was.

It has been a stop-start year for Rune - not helped by illness - but the Dane is refreshed after 11 days without a competitive match and will be aiming for a third consecutive Dubai semi-final at least.

FIRST’s top tip for Mexican Open

Shapovalov’s Dallas victory was a just reward for his hard work during the offseason following an ongoing knee issue which stalled his career. Now in a completely different place physically and mentally, the Canadian can prevail in Mexico. (10/1 with BetMGM)

Extra tips

Rune is worth a look now that he appears to be healthy again, and Ruud could go one better than last year, but another former finalist that can not be ignored at the odds is Cameron Norrie, who has shown positive signs after a rough 2024.

There is the possibility that the Brit will face Zverev, whom he has never beaten, in round two. But nothing is a foregone conclusion for the top seed, who made the peculiar decision to spend the last two weeks playing on clay. 

Norrie was bumped up to the main draw after a series of withdrawals and is worth a punt at 50/1 with BetMGM.

Odds correct at the time of writing.