Australian Open final betting tips: Sinner vs Zverev, Sabalenka v Keys

It’s finals time in the Australian Open – and they seem to have come around faster than Ben Shelton’s serve.

This tournament has had it all. Home hopes going deep(ish), with Alex de Minaur reaching the last eight before crashing out to Jannik Sinner; some shocks in round two when qualifier Learner Tien dumped Daniil Medvedev out, while Zheng Qinwen was stunned by Laura Siegemund; and who can forget Danielle Collins giving some mouth back to a hostile crowd when she beat Aussie Destanee Aiava?

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But, ultimately, it has come down to top seed Arnya Sabalenka facing US outsider Madison Keys for the women’s title on Saturday.

Meanwhile, it’s a heavyweight clash against the top two seeds in the men’s draw - Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev – which follows on Sunday.

But who do we think is going to come out on top in each clash? Read on to find out below…

Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev

As far as big clashes in today’s men’s tennis, they don’t get much bigger than this, with the tournament’s top two seeds colliding in the final.

Defending champion and top seed Sinner saw off big serving Ben Shelton in his semi-final on Friday 7-6; 6-2; 6-2.

The Italian has looked in pretty imperious form throughout the tournament, only dropping sets in the second and fourth rounds.

• First round: Beat Nicolas Jarry (CHI) 7-6; 7-6; 6-1
• Second round: Beat Tristan Schoolkate (AUS) 4-6; 6-4; 6-1; 6-3
• Third round: Beat Marcus Giron (USA) 6-3; 6-4; 6-2
• Fourth round: Beat Holger Rune (13) (DEN) 6-3; 3-6; 6-3; 6-2
• Quarter-finals: Beat Alex de Minaur (8) (AUS) 6-3; 6-2; 6-1
• Semi-finals: Beat Ben Shelton (21) (USA) 7-6; 6-2; 6-2

That said, he didn’t have it all his own way in the semi. Shelton played a great first set, breaking Sinner twice. But Sinner showed why he’s a champion, saving two set points and taking the tie-break. Sinner then immediately broke Shelton in the first round of the second set to take control, and never really looked back.

Zverev, meanwhile, had a much easier semi-final clash, and goes into the final well-rested. His last four opponent, Novak Djokovic, retired hurt after losing the first set on a tie break, failing to recover from the leg injury he sustained in his epic win over Carlos Alcaraz in the quarter-finals.

Like Sinner, Zverev has only dropped two sets en route to the final:

• First round: Beat Lucas Pouille (FRE) 6-4; 6-4; 6-4
• Second round: Beat Pedro Martinez (SPA) 6-1; 6-4; 6-1
• Third round: Beat Jacob Fearnley (GBR) 6-3; 6-4; 6-4
• Fourth round: Beat Ugo Humbert (14) (FRA) 6-1; 2-6; 6-3; 6-2
• Quarter-finals: Beat Tommy Paul (12) (USA) 7-6; 7-6; 2-6; 6-1
• Semi-finals: Beat Novak Djokovic (7) (SER) 7-6 (Djokovic retired hurt)

This will be the seventh match between Sinner and Zverev, with Zverev very much having the upper hand. He’s won four of the six showdowns so far, twice dumping Sinner out of the US Open at the last 16 stage, in 2021 and 2023. He’s also bombed 63 aces past the Italian, and beaten him three times on hard courts.

But Sinner won’t be in the mood to let his Australian Open title slip easily. Their last match-up, the semis of the Cincinnati Open was incredibly close. In a best-of-three-sets clash, Sinner narrowly came out on top 7-6; 5-7; 7-6. 

FIRST’s top tip for Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev

It’s going to be tight. But we’re going for the slight underdog in terms of seedings. The rest will have helped Zverev, who knows he can beat Sinner. Despite Sinner being favourite with most bookies, we think Zverev’s big serve is going to be huge for him here:

Alexander Zverev to win – 21/10 Zetbet

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys

While most may have thought Saturday’s women’s final would, like the men’s, feature the top two seeds Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek, Keys had other ideas.

Her semi-final against Swiatek was one of this year’s most epic clashes in the Australian Open, with Keys victorious 5-7; 6-1; 7-6.

That match saw Keys fight back from a set down and save match point in the final set. Mental and physical resilience? You can say that again.

But then 19th seed Keys has had to show plenty of grit throughout the tournament.

Just take a look at her route to the final below:

• First round: Beat Ann Li (USA) 6-4; 7-5
• Second round: Beat Elena-Gabriela Ruse (ROU) 7-6 (1); 2-6; 7-5
• Third round: Beat Danielle Collins (10) (USA) 6-4; 6-4
• Fourth round: Beat Elena Rybakina (6) (KAZ) 6-3; 1-6; 6-3
• Quarter-finals: Beat Elina Svitolina (28) (UKR) 3-6; 6-3; 6-4
• Semi-finals: Beat Iga Swiatek (2) (POL) 5-7; 6-1; 7-6 (10-8)

That run has seen victories over four seeded players, three of which were top 10 seeds, with four of her six clashes so far going the distance.

Her next battle, though, will be her toughest. Sabalenka is the seemingly unstoppable train which keeps rumbling on in Melbourne.

The Belarusian is on track for her third consecutive Australian Open title. Her route to the final, below, has been far more routine:

• First round: Beat Sloane Stephens (USA) 6-3; 6-2
• Second round: Beat Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) 6-3; 7-5
• Third round: Beat Clara Tauson (DEN) 7-6 (7-5); 6-4
• Fourth round: Beat Mirra Andreeva (14) (RUS) 6-1; 6-2
• Quarter-finals: Beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (27) (RUS) 6-2; 2-6; 6-3
• Semi-finals: Beat Paula Badosa (11) (ESP) 6-4; 6-2

With just one set dropped on her way to the final, Sabalenka last tasted defeat at the Australian Open in the fourth round of 2022’s tournament, meaning she is now unbeaten in Melbourne in 20 matches.

And now she’s within touching distance of repeating a feat not reached since 1999 – when Martina Hingis became the last woman to win the Australian Open three times on the bounce.

All the odds are in Sabalenka’s favour here, too. In five clashes between the pair, Sabalenka has won four. She’s also won all three clashes against Keys on hard courts. She’s unbeaten in all 11 of her matches in 2025 so far. Sabalenka's been on court at the Australian Open for just 9 hours 12 minutes – that’s 2 hours 6 minutes less than Keys.

That said, although she was pretty easily beaten by Sabalenka in the China Open in October, Keys did push Sabalenka hard in the 2023 US Open, beating her 6-0 in the opening set, before losing the next two sets on tie breaks.

FIRST’s top tip for Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys

Much as we love an underdog story, it’s tough to see past Sabalenka here. Fresher and focused on a bit of history, we can only see a straight sets win for the Belarusian. In order to find some value, though, why not look at some of these bets, including a serving feat Sabalenka hasn’t managed throughout the tournament so far:

Total Games (Odd) 17-20 Betway

Sabalenka to win in under 20.5 games 6/5 Mr.Play

Sabalenka to serve under 3.5 aces 11/10 BetMGM

Odds correct at the time of writing.