How to bet on football transfers: A comprehensive guide

Over the years, betting on football transfers has grown in popularity. This is due to bookmakers offering more and more markets to bet on surrounding transfers, while the ever growing Premier League is at the forefront of making headlines and offering plenty of betting opportunities.

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This article will ensure bettors know how to bet on football transfers and will cover things such as where to bet, the most effective strategies and common mistakes to avoid with regards to betting on football transfers.

Where to bet on football transfers

Most, if not all, bookmakers now offer a service where the user can bet on football transfers. 

Availability on these markets tends to vary between bookmakers, but the summer and January transfer windows are the busy periods for football transfer betting. Some sportsbooks may open slightly earlier before the beginning of each window. 

For example, in spring ahead of the summer window opening, or at the beginning of December for the winter one starting on January 1.

Below, we have listed some of the top bookmakers that offer the best services when it comes to betting on football transfers.

Sky Bet (UK)

Sky Bet is one of the most popular bookmakers in the United Kingdom. In terms of football transfer betting, it tends to offer enhanced odds and promotions, such as price boosts on certain high-profile moves.

Sky Bet are also quick to act when it comes to posting specials on football transfers, often being one of the first bookmakers to do so.

Combine this with an easy to use interface, a trusted and safe environment and regularly updated odds and you have one of the best bookmakers around.

Paddy Power

Paddy Power's key strategy when it comes to football transfer betting is to offer markets that might not be available with other bookmakers.

Novelty and niche markets ensure Paddy Power is known for its entertainment value, especially with its banter-driven social media output.

Bet365

Bet365 is regarded as one of the finest platforms for football betting while also offering markets that allow the user to bet on football transfers across a range of markets.

The bookmaker is also known for offering early odds on football transfer betting. Along with its competitive pricing and special promotional offers regarding transfers, Bet365 is one of the most highly valued bookmakers out there.

Betfair

Betfair offers a unique market when it comes to betting on football transfers as it operates as a betting exchange.

Rather than betting against the bookmaker, bettors bet against each other. Markets include ‘back’ (betting that something will happen) or ‘lay’ (betting that something won’t happen) and this tends to result in better odds compared to other bookmakers.

Football transfer windows

Football transfer windows differ between leagues. For the top five European leagues – Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and La Liga – the transfer window falls within a day or two of each other.

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The summer transfer window is the longest, lasting between the start of June and the end of August/start of September.

The winter window runs throughout the month of January, giving teams a short space of time to conduct their business.

Football transfers bet types

Betting on football transfers differs from standard match betting and different bookmakers offer different types of football transfer bet types. These are explained below.

Next Club

This is the most common bet when it comes to football transfers. The bettor stakes a specific amount on which club a player will sign for next.

The rise of social media platforms such as X (previously Twitter) heighten rumours and speculation regarding a player's next move. Trusting accurate sources is the best way to ensure a return on your initial bet.

Once a club announces a deal, the bookmaker will settle any bets made on that player.

To leave/ to stay

This is a more simple bet that involves whether or not a specific player will remain at their current club, or move elsewhere.

The odds for this market aren’t as big as betting on someone’s next club, although it can be more appealing due to there being only two betting options - yes or no.

Club specific transfer specials

This is a slightly rarer market on offer by some bookmakers, but the odds are generally better.

For example, bet types could be ‘Manchester United to sign six players in the summer transfer window’ or Liverpool’s first signing to be a defender’.

Club to make the most signings

Again, this market isn’t on offer with all bookmakers, but it is certainly an intriguing one to bet on.

No club operates the same way during the football transfer window. Indeed, some might need more players than others. Whereas several clubs will only aim to sign a few players. 

This bet becomes more interesting the closer deadline day approaches.

How to place a bet on football transfers

The first thing to do before placing a bet on football transfers is to choose a trusted and reputable bookmaker.

Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Bet365 and Betfair are all good places to start. Other companies such as William Hill and Ladbrokes also offer several markets when it comes to football transfer betting.

Once the bookmaker has been chosen, setting up an account and depositing funds is the first port of call. 

READ: How to bet on sports: Everything you need to know about sports betting

With funds in the account, finding the transfer betting section is next on the list. Each bookmaker has different user interfaces, but these bets tend to be found under ‘transfer specials’, ‘specials’ or just ‘football transfers’.

Once the right section has been found, it is now time to choose the correct market. With plenty to pick from, including ‘next club’, ‘to leave/to stay’ and ‘club to make the most signings’, the bettor will usually have a wide range of options available.

Finally, when the bet type has been chosen, all that remains is for the bettor to enter his stake, confirm the bet and the most exciting part - waiting for the outcome.

Strategies for betting on football transfers

Betting on football transfers differs from traditional match betting in that it is mainly driven by rumours circulating around social media or tabloids.

There are ways to make money out of this betting market, however, especially if some of the strategies listed below are used.

Use trusted news sources and reliable journalists

Looking at the most trustworthy sources is the best way towards success in betting on football transfers.

The Athletic employ journalists who cover clubs from the inside. David Ornstein, James Pearce and Laurie Whitwell cover some of the biggest teams in the Premier League.

Elsewhere, Fabrizio Romano tends to break transfer news before anyone else, while Gianluca Di Marzio is in the know with all things Italian football.

Avoid sources such as The Sun and the Daily Star, who often produce articles of a clickbait nature.

Have a knowledge of transfer needs for different clubs

By having an in-depth knowledge of how certain clubs act in the transfer market, it becomes easier to spot trends and patterns.

For example, Brighton and Bournemouth tend to sign players from outside the big leagues, targeting young talents who will develop at the club.

Clubs without the financial pull may target players available on loan or free transfers, whereas superclubs such as Manchester City and Real Madrid are likely to spend millions on the most coveted players in the world.

Pouncing on bookmaker delays

Big names in the betting stratosphere such as Sky Bet, Bet365 and Paddy Power alter their odds quickly, especially if multiple bets are placed on a single player moving clubs.

By using bookmakers that aren’t as widely known, the bettor can potentially gain an advantage when betting on football transfers.

Acting swiftly to exploit odds that are moving slowly could be a way to succeed in this market.

Bet selectively 

The transfer market is known for its volatility, with moves that looked certain to happen coming to a dead end while players who appeared stable at a club suddenly become subject to bids and then seal a transfer.

As such, keeping stakes small is the safest way to bet.

Keeping an eye on a player’s contract situation

If a player is entering the summer transfer window with a year left on their current contract, the club might be keen to sell in order to recoup a fee.

Should they stay, the club could lose them for nothing in six months. Therefore it is important to pay attention to who is going to be out of contract soon.

Common mistakes in football transfer betting

There may be money to be made when betting on football transfers, but several common mistakes are often repeated.

Trusting the wrong sources

As mentioned earlier, there are several trusted sources who tend to provide reliable and accurate information during the transfer window.

Tabloid sources are best avoided, as they usually speculate in order to drive clicks/views with inaccurate information.

Betting too early

Placing a bet the moment a rumour begins often ends in disappointment. Odds change at a rapid rate and sometimes transfer rumours tend to burn out before too long.

By consulting accurate sources, playing the long game is a much smarter approach.

Failing to monitor club finances

Despite their colossal wealth, clubs like Manchester City and Real Madrid still have to be careful of overspending. 

Even clubs such as Aston Villa and Everton have to be wary of breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations. Which means they have to balance the books every summer.

By paying attention to how much a club has to spend and what areas of the squad the manager wishes to improve, it could lead to better outcomes when betting on football transfers.

How to bet on football transfers FAQs

What are the best bookmakers to use when betting on football transfers?

Sky Bet, Bet365, Paddy Power and Betfair are all popular bookmakers that offer a wide variety of markets with regards to betting on football transfers.

What are the most popular football transfer betting markets?

Popular betting markets regarding football transfers are ‘to stay/to leave’, ‘next club’ and ‘club specific transfer specials’.

When can I place football transfer bets?

The best time to place football transfer bets is during either the summer or January transfer windows.

For high-profile players, bets can usually be placed throughout the year.

What are the best sources to use when betting on football transfers?

Reputable journalists and outlets are the best sources to use when betting on football transfers. The Athletic is creditable, while Fabrizio Romano often breaks transfer news before anyone else.