Premier League relegation odds: The clubs, the myths, the legends

We're heading for one of the least competitive relegation fights in Premier League history. And if we're honest, the most obvious.

Last season, we saw all three promoted teams go straight back down for the first time since 1998 (can you guess who they were?). And unless something dramatic happens, it’s looking like rinse and repeat. Southampton are already done for, and Ipswich and Leicester are circling the Championship drain.

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So let’s see if there’s any life – or value – left in the relegation markets. From the no-hopers, to the 40-point myth, and everything in between.

Southampton

To finish bottom 1/100 (BetMGM)

You know it's been a bleak season when all you've got left to play for is beating Derby's infamous 11-point tally. I’m not sure that’s worth a parade bus tour either, but that’s where we’re at with Southampton. They've already sacked their second permanent manager of the season following relegation and are looking for a new man in charge to lead their Championship charge. 

Saints are bottom of the Premier League on just 10 points and they're already mathematically down. They've had more managers on the touchline this season (3, soon to be 4) than Premier League wins (2).

There’s still Aston Villa, Fulham, Man City and Arsenal to come – but they've no doubt circled their trip to Leicester next month. That’s their best shot at dodging Derby’s unwanted record.

The only market available? 1/100 to finish bottom. Move along, nothing to bet here.

Leicester

1/100 to be relegated (10bet), 33/1 to not be relegated, 20/1 to finish bottom (bet365)

Full disclosure: this is written through the teary eyes of a Leicester fan. But I’ll try to stay impartial.

The optimism of last season – led by Enzo Maresca, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and an almost full schedule of soft opponents – is long gone. With all three now a distant memory, Leicester have been an absolute shambles this campaign.

The Foxes have both the second-worst attack and defence in the league and are on a run of eight straight defeats without scoring a single goal. That’s relegation form of the highest order. Or lowest, depending how you look at it.

They’re now 15 points adrift of safety and the Ruud van Nistelrooy experiment can officially be labelled a complete disaster – just two wins from 18 league games.

Their only saving grace? They’ve still got Wolves, Southampton and Ipswich left to play. But unless Jamie Vardy channels his inner 2014 – back when he dragged Leicester to safety during the greatest escape – it’s game over.

33/1 to survive might seem tempting if you really buy into that 'Foxes never quit' mantra, but I'd be more looking at the 20/1 to finish rock bottom. At least Southampton can find the back of the net...

Ipswich

1/40 to be relegated (10bet), 16/1 to not be relegated, 25/1 to finish bottom (bet365)

Ipswich were widely tipped to finish bottom, but they’ve had much more about them than many expected – maybe not if you followed their last two promotion campaigns closely.

Now, they might only have 20 points and still sit 12 points from safety, but the Tractor Boys are still swinging. In recent weeks they've taken points off Aston Villa with 10 men, gone toe-to-toe with United at Old Trafford, scored twice against high-flying Nottingham Forest, and edged Bournemouth away. That’s not the form of a team that’s given up.

Kieran McKenna has them playing brave, front-foot football – and it’s that attitude and energy that’s got them to the top-flight and kept them in the conversation.

They might have let a lead slip late on in their crucial six-pointer with Wolves over the weekend, but they'll be licking their lips ahead of games against Everton, Brentford, Leicester and West Ham. All matches they'll fancy themselves in.

If there’s one promoted side who might just scrape survival, it’s Ipswich. But listen, they're 16/1 to stay up. You'd be better off backing Wolves to be relegated at 33/1 as it'd take something fairly drastic for Everton or West Ham, who are both on 35 points, to fall into the drop zone.

Wolves

66/1 to be relegated (Ladbrokes), 1/200 to not be relegated (bet365)

Here’s where things get a bit spicy. Wolves are 12 points clear of the drop, have lost just two of their last eight, and are unbeaten in four. Not exactly a side in crisis.

Despite selling key players like Pedro Neto and Max Kilman last summer, Vitor Pereira's men seem to have done just enough. Striker Matheus Cunha has stepped up with 13 goals, and even when he’s out, Jorgen Strand Larsen has chipped in with 11 himself. And you cannot overstate the importance of his back-to-back winners against West Ham and Ipswich.

It’s really hard to see them slipping back into the relegation zone. They'd need to go into total meltdown and one of Ipswich or Leicester would have to turn into world beaters overnight. Stranger things have happened, but not many.

33/1 might seem tempting but it's ultimately a trap. Wolves are staying up.

So, what about the 40-point myth?

There’s always talk of the magic 40-point safety mark. But here’s the thing, it’s more myth than magic these days.

The last time every surviving team hit 40 points was back in 2017. It didn’t happen in the five years before that either. This season, even the likes of Manchester United and Tottenham aren’t there yet with seven games to go.

Realistically, survival is more like 34–36 points these days. That’s what gives Ipswich – and maybe, just maybe, Leicester – a glimmer of hope.

Odds correct at the time of writing.