EXPLAINED: In-play football betting strategies

What is live/in-play betting?

Live, or in-play betting, is when you place a bet on a football match after the match has already started. 

This allows you to take advantage of changing odds during the match and place bets based on what you are seeing as the game progresses. 

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You can do this in football matches, as well as during other live sporting events including tennis, boxing and golf.

How does in-play betting work?

In-play betting works similarly to betting in advance of matches. You simply have to log onto your account with your bookie of choice, choose the match you want to bet on and select the market and bet you want to make. 

But odds change quickly during games as live statistics from the match come in, so you may find times when it is briefly not possible to bet on certain markets while the odds update. 

Once you’ve placed your bet, just wait to see if it comes off, and if it does you could be collecting your winnings very quickly, with the end of the match never too long a wait from an in-play bet. 

You can also bet on markets that will be settled during the game, rather than at the end, such as ‘next goalscorer’ or ‘next player to be carded’ markets. 

Spread betting

Spread betting is very different to normal betting and in-play betting. When looking at a spread betting market in football, you will look at a market such as the total goals market for a match of your choice. 

Say the spread for the total goals market is presented as 1.9-2.1. This means that on average the bookies think there will be a total of two goals in the game. You can then choose to either ‘buy’ or ‘sell’. 

Buying means you think the outcome will be higher than the bookies’ predicted spread (so more than two goals in this example) and selling means you think the outcome will be lower than the bookies’ predicted spread (so fewer than two goals). You choose your stake, for example, £5. 

If you buy with a £5 stake, and there are four goals, you would make £10 profit (£5 for each of the two goals over the spread). 

But if there were no goals, you would make a £10 loss (£5 for each of the two goals under the spread. 

If there were exactly two goals you would break even. If you had decided to sell £5 a goal with a spread of 1.9-2.1, a 0-0 draw would have seen you make £10, whereas a 4-0 result would see you lose £10. 

Only certain specialist bookmakers, known as betting exchanges, offer spread betting as an option.

Arb betting

Arb betting, or arbitrage betting, is a gambling strategy which involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event to guarantee a profit. 

For this to work, you would need to have accounts with multiple bookies and find the best odds for each outcome with different betting sites. 

Once you find the best odds for each market, you would cover them all with varying stakes that would ensure you make a profit regardless of which outcome happens. 

This type of betting takes a lot of legwork to ensure you find the best odds for each market and is not always possible to pull off as the odds may be similar with all the bookies. 

Opportunities for guaranteed profits by arbitrage betting usually happen if a bookmaker fails to react to live events in real time or mistakenly sets the odds too high in certain markets. 

Arbitrage betting is not illegal but bookies do not like it and may limit accounts or cancel bets if they realise a bettor is doing it.

Watch the match and stay updated 

If you are live betting, it is very important that you are watching the match, or at the very least closely following live statistics and data from it. 

Opportunities to win from in-play betting emerge when you may spot a pattern of play or a shift of momentum in a match, and place a bet before the bookies update their odds accordingly. For instance, if you’re watching a match between Aston Villa and Newcastle. 

Villa may be dominating possession but you notice one of their defenders is limping slightly and is in direct opposition to a speedy Newcastle forward such as Anthony Gordon. 

You might decide to place a bet on Gordon to score next at odds of 6/1, before the bookies realise the Villa defender is carrying a knock and shorten the odds. 

In the UK you can watch football matches on television with channels such as Sky Sports, TNT Sports, BBC and ITV. Some bookmakers offer the possibility to stream matches via their platforms too.

Understanding odds

In the UK, fractional odds are most common. They are expressed as a ratio. 

Odds of 10/1 mean that you will win £10 for every £1 you bet if your bet comes off. Odds of 2/5 mean you will win £2 for every £5 that you bet. 

You will also receive your stake back, so in the first example you’ll receive £11 back and in the second you’ll receive £7 back. 

Longer odds indicate the bookies think something is less likely to happen. Short odds indicate the bookies think something is probable. 

If the odds are ‘odds on’ such as 3/10, then the bookies think it is very likely and your potential winnings would be less than your stake. 

There are also decimal odds and moneyline odds, which you can find out more about on our sports betting odds explained page. 

Live betting football markets to exploit

When watching a live football match, some of the best markets to bet on in-play include the following:

Next goal 

Whether it’s the team or the specific individual, watching a match can give you a clear indication of who is most likely to score next. Whether it’s a lively looking striker or a suspect-looking defensive unit, you can gain an idea of who is most likely to put the ball in the back of the net next.

Corners

Patterns of play can indicate how things are going to pan out. If you notice that the wingers in a match keep getting down the flanks and crossing balls in, and the opposition defenders look a bit shaky at dealing with the crosses. 

Then you might have an idea of how many total corners will rack up by the end of the match. There’s a market for that.

Cards

You might be able to get an impression of how aggressive, or calm, a match is turning out and be able to place a more educated guess on the total number of cards by the end of the fixture. 

You may also be able to predict a specific player to be booked next if it looks like they are making some rash fouls. 

Draw

You can often get good odds on a match finishing in a draw. If you have watched some of a game and believe the two teams to be evenly matched, it might be the right time to bet on it to finish all square.

To win from behind

Watching a game where a plucky underdog has started well but you know ultimately the favourites will be too strong? 

This might be the time to bet on a ‘win from behind’ for the favourites - something which is often offered at good odds.

Where can you find stats for in-play betting 

These days, there are plenty of websites to give you up-to-date stats on the match you want to bet on. 

As well as watching the match yourself, these stats can be revealing for patterns of play and an educated bettor can pick out the best in-play bets to make from analysing them. 

We would recommend WhoScored.com, FBref.com, SofaScore.com , optaplayerstats.statsperform.com and SoccerSTATS.com .

Betting exchanges vs standard bookmaker sites

The key difference between a betting exchange site and a regular bookies is that with an exchange you are playing against other players, rather than against the bookie. 

At a betting exchange you can lay bets, which means betting on a selection not to occur. 

This is not strictly possible at a regular bookie (although if you want to lay a bet on Chelsea not winning in a game against Liverpool, you could effectively do so by taking the Liverpool/draw double chance). 

Betting exchanges also take commission on winnings, unlike normal bookies.

Bet responsibly in-play 

Just like with other forms of sports betting, you must gamble responsibly when betting in-play.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose and stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol. 

To learn more about responsible gambling, visit our responsible gambling in sports betting page which also offers resources and advice on where to seek help if needed.