Dominant Pogacar favourite for this month's Tour de France

On Saturday 5 July, 184 riders from 23 teams will start their bids to claim the Tour de France’s yellow jersey. Having won the last five events between them, Danish Jonas Vingegaard and Slovenian Tadej Pogacar are the fans' and bookies’ favourites to win again this year. 

While Vingegaard will fancy his chances, Pogacar’s dominance means he has been given odds of just 4/11 to defend his title. 

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Victory in 2025 would represent Pogacar’s fourth success in cycling’s biggest event, putting him on a par with British Chris Froome and one behind the record of five wins, which is currently held jointly by four racers. At 26 years old, and currently dominating road cycling, Pogacar has every chance of going on and breaking the record in earnest. 

The signs certainly point to a Pogacar victory. At last year’s event, he won six stages – the first time the feat has been achieved since Mark Cavendish did it in 2009. He also finished six minutes clear of second-placed Vingegaard. 

Since then, Pogacar has won 11 events, including his most recent race at the Critérium de Dauphine in June. The Dauphine is typically seen as a good indicator of a rider’s form heading into the Tour de France, and Pogacar won by an impressive 59 seconds, once again beating Vingegaard into second place. 

The Slovenian has now picked up 99 victories, including stages, races, and general classifications, making him the most successful rider that is still currently active.

While Pogacar seems to have the measure of all of his opponents, Vingegaard does have a history of beating the Slovenian. His two Tour de France victories came in 2022 and 2023, and he has a very strong team behind him, which could make the difference. 

In last year’s event, Vingegaard had not fully recovered from his crash at the Itzulia Basque Country event, whereas he looks fit and ready to take on this year’s Tour. Vingegaard is currently the 9/4 second favourite to win the general classification. 

Third in the bookmaker’s list of odds is Belgian Remco Evenepoel, priced at 11/1. The double Olympic champion finished third last year and rode home fourth in the Dauphine. 

However, he looks like he is still carrying the aftereffects of a nasty accident endured during a training ride in December. Pogacar’s super domestique is fourth in the betting. Bettors can get odds of 18/1 on the Portuguese cyclist.  

Eleven British riders are competing in this year’s main event, but, in the bookmakers’ eyes, at least, Simon Yates is the country’s best chance of victory, and he has odds of 100/1 for the win. Twin brother Adam Yates has also been given the same odds of 100/1 while Oscar Onley and Geraint Thomas are 200/1 and 300/1 outsiders, respectively.  

This year’s event takes place over 21 stages, with the first ten featuring flat and hilly stages. Racers will then face the challenge of mountainous stages in the Pyrenees and Alps, before concluding with the traditional Champs-Élysées finish. For the first time since 2020, the entire event will be held in France.

Odds on who will win the Tour de France, correct at the time of writing, from Ladbrokes: