Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford betting tips: Who will be crowned ‘The One’ in ‘The Fight of the Century’?

“We will not have Tom & Jerry fights anymore,” declared His Excellency Turki Alalshikh, as he finally managed to make the Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford clash for 13 September at the 65,000-capacity Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, U.S.

It’s the biggest fight of the year, with Mexican megastar, Canelo, set to earn nine figures for his part, while American hero, Crawford, will pocket eight figures.

Love boxing? Find the best boxing betting sites and bet with welcome bonuses today.

But there’s more than just a fight purse at stake in the Silver State on Saturday night (Sunday morning for UK fight fans), there’s legacy on the line and a point to prove for both of these future Hall of Famers. 

Either man could retire tomorrow and go down in history as one of the greatest, but first they each want to secure their legacy in what has already been dubbed, ‘The Fight of the Century’.

Despite being unbeaten and already making history as the first two-weight undisputed male champion in a four-belt era, ‘Bud’ has said himself that, “This the one.”

But who will be ‘The One’? Let’s take a look into which one of these pound-for-pound greats will emerge as boxing’s biggest superstar this weekend.

Tale of the tape: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

Canelo Alvarez: Crawford is coming up to his kingdom 

Canelo and Crawford have many similarities – they have both conquered four divisions, both reigned as undisputed rulers. Plus each one will be entered into the Hall of Fame as soon as the first ballot after retirement opens, and they have enjoyed being world champions for well over a decade.

But, the main talking point and key factor of this fight is the weight difference. Crawford is coming up two weight classes from super-welterweight to challenge the fully-fledged super-middleweight king, who holds all the marbles at 168lbs.

The 67-fight veteran, who debuted at the age of 15, 20 years ago in 2005, has won 11 world championship contests at super-middleweight – he rules the division.

Trained by Eddy Reynoso, he has completed over 100 rounds in world title fights up at 168lbs weight category and that gives him the upper hand in this super-fight.

However, Crawford is a complete fighter – unlimited strengths, very few weaknesses. His ring IQ is genius-level, and the Mexican has struggled with other cerebral opponents in the past, such as Floyd Mayweather, who is another complete boxer.

Read: Boxing weight classes revealed - strategies from flyweights to heavyweights and everything in between.

Mayweather’s ring IQ and craftsmanship was on full display the night he took Canelo to school in 2013, thus handing him his first loss.

Then, in 2022, Canelo challenged WBA light-heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol, who is another clever fighter and arguably the best boxer at controlling and fighting at range in the world right now. 

The Russian is masterful behind his ramrod, rangy jab and commanding straight shots, and used those strengths to outpoint a very frustrated Canelo.

Alvarez can struggle with clever movers, which is something Crawford will be bringing to the table in this fight – IQ and ringcraft.

But in this fight, he is king and Crawford the challenger to his throne. It’s his crown and his division that ‘Bud’ is coming up to, and so far 11 others have failed to overcome his dominance at super-middleweight.

Terence Crawford: Can he make history as a three-weight undisputed champion?

Four-weight world champion, Terence ‘Bud’ Crawford made history when he became the first male boxer in history to win undisputed championships in two weight divisions in 2023.

Now 37, the Nebraskan has been a world champion for over 11 years, first winning a WBO lightweight title against Scotland’s Ricky Burns in Glasgow in 2014.

He then became undisputed at super-lightweight in 2017, then again at welterweight with his stunning ninth-round knockout win over Errol Spence in 2023.

Last August, he moved up to super-welterweight to capture a world title in a fourth weight class, taking the WBA belt from Israil Madrimov to reach 41-0.

Bud has only managed to fight once per year since 2020. Prior to that, he was fighting at least twice per year.

But, the man from Omaha has it all when it comes to boxing skills. The southpaw can switch-hit, possessing power in both fists; he is masterful at attacking and defending. 

His high intelligence and understanding of the sport allows him to work out his opponents mid-fight and plan for their downfall. 

Although this can take a little time to download the data to gradually use it against them and take them apart, which is why a lot of his knockouts tend to happen from round nine onwards.

To reach 41-0 and be crowned undisputed twice shows just how good he is. But to become the first male boxer in a four-weight era to win three undisputed championships will see him go down as one of the finest fighters in history.

Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford: The key factors

Most of the skills and attributes stack up in favour of Crawford over Canelo. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that the American is the better boxer in this fight.

But, it’s the weight factor that raises all the question marks over how this fight will go.

Bud has had to put on a lot of weight for this fight and, having never fought up at 168, a whole stone heavier than his last fight 13 months ago, it’s almost impossible to tell how he will be able to handle that extra muscle as the fight goes long.

Canelo is relentless and has a huge engine, so in the second half of the fight he is going to pile on the pressure to really force Bud to work. The championship rounds is where the fight could be decided.

Want more? How to bet on boxing online - the key strategies and tactics to pack a punch. 

Crawford may well outbox Canelo for most of the fight, using his awkward southpaw tricks, switch-hitting to frustrate and confuse, changing up the angles of his attacks to mentally drain and irritate, while landing carefully considered power punches; all the while displaying his defensive ability too.

But as the fight goes on, will that extra weight and muscle he’s not used to fighting under begin to sap his strength and stamina?

Trained by Brian ‘BoMac’ McIntyre, this team will have prepared thoroughly to adapt to the extra weight, but when it comes to fight night, the intensity under those bright lights will be turned up to full power.

Canelo is an excellent body puncher, and you would imagine that he is going to try to keep close to Bud all night to land those powerful hooks to the body to take the American’s feet away from him.

However, getting close enough to Crawford to land body shots is a lot easier said than done.

FIRST’s top tip for Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford

Crawford is as complete a fighter as you can get and will go down in history as one of the greatest of all-time, so I’m backing him to deliver what we all know he’s capable of – to win on points, currently 11/5 with Spreadex.

Pick: Terence Crawford to win on points - 11/5 (Spreadex)

Extra tips 

Canelo could do 20 rounds at super-middleweight – a division the four-weight world champion has made his own. 

The odds for Canelo to overwhelm Bud late on in the fight to win via stoppage in rounds 11-12 is 14/1 with Betway, at the time of writing.

Pick: Canelo Alvarez to win via stoppage in rounds 11-12 - 14/1 (Betway) 

Responsible gambling with FIRST

You must be 18+ to gamble. Gambling is a form of entertainment, not a way to make money. Our tips and advice help you enjoy gambling, but there is always a chance a bet or casino game can lose.

Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Stop betting if you are angry, emotional or under the influence of alcohol.

Warning signs of problem gambling: chasing losses, betting money needed for bills, or feeling unable to stop.

Need help? Visit our responsible sports betting page or our responsible casino gambling page, or contact the support organisations listed below if you're struggling to control your gambling:

Gamblers Anonymous UK

BeGambleAware

GAMSTOP

National Gambling Support Network

Gamcare

NHS National Gambling Clinic

Odds correct at the time of writing.