CONMEBOL Connection: Back four hosts to come out on top

After some solid picks a fortnight ago, our South American expert is back in the hot seat as he takes us across the continent for his best selections. 

Starting in Paraguay for a key Copa Libertadores match, before finishing in Brazil, find out why Nathan has put forward this 9/1 acca with Betway.

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Leg 1: Cerro Porteno to beat Sporting Cristal at 7/10 

With three points to their name after two matches, Cerro Porteno needed to make it count in front of their own fans. 

They did so impressively against Bolivar, coming from behind to run out 4-2 winners. A narrow 1-0 loss in Brazil against giants Palmeiras showed a better defensive display, and keeping the scoreline down may well be crucial when it comes to qualifying out of the group.

Up next: Sporting Cristal. The Peruvians went toe-to-toe with Palmeiras on home soil, before losing 3-2 late on. A trip to La Paz was always going to be tough, but a 3-0 defeat was disappointing nevertheless.

Off the pitch, the fans are protesting to get the board out, and while they’ve recently appointed a new head coach, the growing rift between those in charge, fans and players is evident. 

Cristal head to Paraguay having lost four of their last five - and not many supporters are set to make the trip.

It’s four wins from five at home for Cerro Porteno, and their much more settled side can claim the three points on Friday.

Leg 2: Palmeiras -0.75 asian handicap vs Bahia at 3/4 

Palmeiras have been almost foot perfect at the start of the Brazilian season. Having won four and drawn one, they sit top of the tree by two points - and perhaps more impressively, they’ve only conceded two goals so far.

A midweek trip to face Bolivar in La Paz - in theory - makes their match against Bahia trickier. However, Abel Ferreira has been known to heavily rotate his team when playing in Bolivia, and key players such as Estevao and Vitor Roque will be rested ahead of the weekend.

The same can’t be said for Bahia who have a Libertadores match of their own. They face Colombia’s Atletico Nacional at home, and with their group wide open, Rogerio Cano will line up as strong as he can.

It has been a mixed campaign to date for Bahia. Draws against recently promoted sides Mirassol and Santos, as well as a 115th minute winner against Ceara, haven’t impressed their fans. 

Their other away match saw them hammered 3-0 against Cruzeiro, and against one of - if not - best clubs in Brazil, Bahia can be pulled apart once more.

Leg 3: Club Aurora -1 asian handicap vs Real Oruro at 8/10 

Club Aurora are all but relegated before a ball is kicked due to their -33 point deduction at the start of the season. One of their players - Diego Montano - was falsifying his identity and the club was severely punished.

However, on the pitch, they’ve started rather well. A 5-1 demolition job against Oriente Petrolero was backed up with another home win against Bulo Bulo - a side that is competing in the Copa Libertadores.

Guabira comfortably beat Aurora on their own patch, but they almost pulled off an incredible result away to The Strongest - one of the best teams in Bolivia - only to lose the match 3-2 in stoppage time.

Despite their situation, their squad remains very competitive for this level, and they’ll hope to make it three home wins on the bounce against Real Oruro who have been recently promoted from the second tier.

However, winless in four (D2 L2) - scoring just twice - shows there’s a huge gap in quality that they need to bridge if they are to survive this season. Aurora, at home, can return to winning ways against a very average side.

Leg 4: Vitoria draw no bet vs Gremio at 7/10 

Rounding off our acca are Vitoria at home against Gremio. The hosts have endured a steady start to their season - (W1 D2 L1) - beating Fortaleza, holding Fluminense and Atletico Mineiro on the road, while only narrowly losing to title contenders Flamengo 2-1.

Despite losing their top goalscorer Alerrandro to CSKA Moscow, Vitoria haven’t looked lost without him, and their settled side has shown they can compete against the best teams in this league.

The same can’t be said for Gremio. A growing rift between the board and fans has led to many of their matches being boycotted. Some fans aren’t happy with the lack of investment within the squad yet incredibly high ticket prices. Their home support has been non-existent this season.

A heavy 4-1 defeat against newly promoted Mirassol saw the board sack Gustavo Quinteros and appoint Mano Menezes - who was only sacked three weeks ago from Fluminense.

The appointment hasn’t pleased fans, as Menezes’ defensive style of play saw him struggle to deliver at Fluminense, and without much time on the training pitch, yet another unsettled squad may fall short this week. 

Back Vitoria to continue their good form now back at home after a couple of matches on the road.

FIRST’s CONMEBOL acca overall odds: 9/1 with Betway

Odds correct at the time of writing.