Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Canadian GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play 

After the flurry of races with the triple header, a much-needed week off for teams and drivers alike, brings us to round 10 of the 2025 Formula One season, not even the half-way mark yet. 

We’ve had grand prix wins for Max Verstappen, Lando Norris and Championship leader, Oscar Piastri. It appears McLaren have already got one hand on the Constructor’s Championship trophy, but with 15 races still to go, there’s plenty of drama ahead of us.

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Piastri’s 2025 form

Whatever Oscar Piastri did in the winter break, it seems to  be working. Five wins to his name, the Aussie has to be favourite to win the title this year. 

His lowest result was at his home track, where he spun off and had to salvage 9th place in the rain-soaked race. 

It’s the only time Piastri hasn’t finished on the podium this season. Talking of podiums, he has never had one in Montreal (11th and fifth place so far), but you wouldn’t bet against him standing on the top step this year.

Verstappen’s attitude

Max Verstappen, like many F1 World Champions, is a divisive character. Supremely talented in a car, maybe one of the best we have ever seen, but every now and then, Verstappen throws his toys out the pram. 

This time his rash decision making could cost him dearly. In Spain he was penalized for causing a collision with his old sparring partner, George Russell. 

He received a 10-second time penalty dropping him to 10th place (a loss of potentially five championship points) and three penalty points on his licence – just one away from a one-race ban. 

Could he be forced to miss a race? His points remain in place until 30 June, so he needs to get through this race and the next one in Austria without any points added to his license. It’s a massive risk for both him and his team.

Canadian Grand Prix odds

Canadian Grand Prix predictions 

This weekend we go racing in Montreal at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve – one of my absolute favourites. An old school track built around the Expo67 and 1976 Summer Olympics sites. 

It’s been on the calendar since 1978 and was the scene of the longest F1 race in history (Button winning in 2011 in a time of 4h 4m 39s) 

No chance of a repeat, the rules were changed after that race (F1 races now have a maximum duration of three hours) but there is always plenty of drama in Montreal - which is the reason it's one of our picks for best sports to bet on in 2025.

Like in Monaco, the softest tyres will be used this weekend. The 4.3km track has 14 corners, featuring sequences of straights and tight chicanes – a stop-go track which normally sees people selecting the medium and hard tyres to race on, stopping twice.

With three DRS zones, overtaking can be done but beware, the wall of champions lurks at the end of the lap, waiting to collect famous names. In 1999, Damon Hill, Michael Schumacher and Jacques Villeneuve all crashed there. 

There may be safety cars too, there were six alone in 2011! Since 1978, 16 races have had safety cars but it’s been deployed a total of 38 times. Oh, and expect odd weather! Last year’s race was started on the intermediate tyres and won by Max Verstappen. 

In fact, Verstappen has won the last three Canadian Grand Prix’s, so you can never quite rule him out, even if he is going to have to be on his best behaviour.

FIRST’s top tip for Canadian GP 

In the last 10 races in Montreal, the polesitter has gone on to win seven times. 

Despite expected tussles up and down the grid, I think the percentages point towards the poleman taking the win come Sunday. In his current form, Piastri would be most likely to do that.

The polesitter at this track has gone on to finish on the podium 28 times from the 43 races held here. (60.5%)

Pick: To win qualifying and to win the race:

Oscar Piastri - 5/2 (10bet)

Lando Norris - 7/2 (10bet)

Max Verstappen - 5/1 (10bet)

Charles Leclerc - 28/1 (10bet)

Things to consider and extra race tips

Tsunoda safe? Despite Red Bull insisting Tsunoda will remain at the team until the end of the year. 

If Hadjar keeps on getting good results for sister team Racing Bulls, I wouldn’t count against the Frenchman getting a shot as Verstappen’s latest teammate before the end of the season. He’s scored four points finishes in the last five races.

Isack Hadjar to finish in the points: 1/1 (evens) 10bet

Sticking with Red Bull Racing, If you believe the whispers, team principal Christian Horner might be on his way out of the team.

Could a move to somewhere like Alpine be on the cards? Flavio Briatore is currently running the show but if Horner were to become free, that might be the perfect blend for both men. I wouldn’t discount it quite yet.

Happy Birthday Haas – Montreal will mark the US team’s 200th race. With a best result of fourth and fifth in the Austrian GP 2018, it seems unlikely they could match that result but a double-points finish might be a nice reward for the team.

Haas double points finish: 28/1 (10bet)

Stroll AWOL? Lance Stroll went AWOL after qualifying in Spain last time out. An old wrist injury was to blame at first, then an argument after a poor qualifying performance came to light and Stroll was gone. Only one Aston Martin took to the start-line on Sunday. 

Is there a doubt for Stroll in Canada? The team says he is fit for this weekend’s home-race, but do I see another driver stepping into that car at some point this season; it’s quite possible.

1 or 2 cars not be classified: Aston Martin 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

Water, water everywhere – surrounded by the St. Lawrence Seaway there’s always plenty of water around, but there’s also a good chance of rain when it comes to Canada. 2011 is an obvious example, but last year started wet and this year there will be some weather around. 

This could have a big say on how many cars finish the race. 

Number of classified drivers: Under 18.5 - 8/11 (10bet), Under 16.5 - 6/1 (10bet)

Safety car chances are 80%, so high. With walls close and rookies on the road, I would predict at least a virtual safety car period, if not a full safety car.

Safety car to feature - Yes: 4/11 (Ladbrokes)

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructors standings

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Odds correct at the time of writing.