Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Monaco GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play

Red Bull celebrated their 400th F1 race last weekend in Imola with Max Verstappen taking a sublime win ahead of the two McLaren cars. Just a gentle reminder that you write Verstappen off at your own peril. 

The gap at the top of the driver standings, a tale of a tantalisingly close season that could go down to the wire. 

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Oscar Piastri still leads the way with a 13-point gap over his teammate Lando Norris, who has a nine-point lead over the ever-present Verstappen. With another 17 races to go in the Championship fight, it’s definitely ‘GAME ON’.

Further down the field, Williams are having quite the resurgence and now sit comfortably as the best of the rest outside of the top four, with 51 points. While they may not challenge Ferarri or Red Bull over the whole season, Williams have the drivers in place to disturb the 'world order' on occasion and consolidate fifth position.

Quite the turn-around for the Grove team that seemed on its knees only a couple of years ago. 

As for Aston Martin, a large upgrade delivered an immediate improvement for the team in Imola, Fernando Alonso qualifying inside the top five for the first time in over a year. (How much Adrian Newey had to do with the improvement isn’t clear yet!) 

Bad luck was to blame for the team not picking up any points, but Fernando Alonso is definitely a threat if he manages to qualify well on Saturday.

READ: Monaco Grand Prix Odds: Oscar Piastri favourite to take his 5th win of the F1 season

Monaco Grand Prix odds

Monaco Grand Prix predictions 

Monaco is the jewel in the crown when it comes to Formula 1. Despite the addition of new races like Vegas and Miami, there’s nothing like the tight winding streets of the Principality. 

Dating back to 1929, when F1 first took to the roads of Monte Carlo, there’s so much history in this short track. 

Names such as Casino Square, Tabac, the Tunnel, and the perilous Sainte-Devote, which just waits to collect stray F1 cars at the end of the start/finish strait. For the F1 romanticist – this is the Mills and Boon of races.

However, no love affair is without some ups and downs – the ecstasy of Saturday’s qualifying, where drivers have to be millimetre perfect as they skim the barriers around this 3.3km test of man and machine, is sometimes followed by a processional race.

None worse than the mind-numbing 78 laps last year, when a first lap red flag saw everyone pit, change tyres, and then follow each other round the Principality like a Sunday drive along the coast. It was excruciating!

This year sees the introduction of a new Monaco specific rule where every driver will need to run three sets of tyres – forcing a two-stop strategy, in a hope to “improve the sporting spectacle”. 

Like in Imola last week it’s the softest of the Pirelli tyres but will these mandatory pit stops make for a more thrilling race? I’m not 100% convinced. 

It's worth noting those who are at the top or bottom of the pit lane have a slight advantage because they lose less time in what can be a chaotic and crowded pit lane. 

So, McLaren and Ferrari being the first and Williams and Sauber being the last could help those teams. The Scuderia are still knocking it out the park when it comes to the fastest pit stops this season and they will be hoping this weekend is no exception.

Last year Charles Leclerc won his home race, having started on pole. While the Monégasque is hopeful of another win, I think it's unlikely. 

As team-mate Lewis Hamilton plots to overturn the gap to his teammate, Ferrari's qualifying form just isn’t good enough. So for me, it's Verstappen vs Norris vs Piastri for pole and the win.

FIRST’s top tip for Monaco GP 

McLaren is the most successful team in the Principality with 15 wins in its history. I wouldn’t bet against them making it to 16 this year.

Pick: McLaren to win the Monaco GP: 4/7 (10bet) 

Price Boost: Norris & Piastri to finish in the top 2 + over 17.5 cars class + more than 2.5 leaders (was 8/1): NOW 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Extra tips

• More points for Williams: Another double-points finish for Williams this weekend if the drivers manage to stay out of the walls on Saturday.

Williams to have double points finish: 5/6 (10bet)

• Pole for the win: 45% of winners started from pole position. Another 22% started in second place so a front row winner is highly likely.

Pole sitter to win the Monaco GP (10bet)

Oscar Piastri - 10/3
Lando Norris - 5/1
Max Verstappen - 7/1

• Safety first: The safety car has featured in 4 of the last 5 races in Monaco. That’s an 80% chance.

Safety car to feature - Yes: 2/9 (10bet)

• Alonso magic: Bad luck can’t follow you around that much, so I think Alonso is due some good fortune after Imola, I’m backing him for a top 6 finish.

Fernando Alonso to finish in the top six: 10/3 (10bet) or 3/1 (Ladbrokes)

Formula 1 drivers standings 

Formula 1 constructors standings

Odds correct at the time of writing.