Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Spanish GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Monaco was like watching a children’s game of pass the parcel: each child going agonisingly slowly when they were holding the present, in the hope that the music would stop, and they get to tear off a layer of wrapping paper and win. 

F1 racing at its best, it was not. 

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Formula One state of play

However, it did set us up beautifully for the championship challenge. 

Lando Norris managed to reassert himself and claw back almost all the gap between himself and his McLaren teammate. There are now just three points between Norris and championship leader, Oscar Piastri. 

Red Bull main man Max Verstappen has fallen back a little and now sits 22 points behind Norris (25 behind Piastri). With 16 races still to go, it’s a fascinating contest. 

So, next up it’s the last of the European triple-headers as F1 goes to Barcelona. 

READ: F1 title odds: McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull battle as ‘flexi-wing’ saga concludes

A home race for both Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso, all tied up with it being, perhaps the last time we go to the Spanish circuit before Madrid takes over hosting rights in 2026.

Norris will be riding high after his pretty much perfect weekend last time out. Winning the Monaco GP is still one of the greatest achievements an F1 driver can experience.

Plus, setting the fastest lap time ever will be a record he hopes will last for a long time, but will it see him start the Spanish Grand Prix as favourite?

Spanish Grand Prix odds

Spanish Grand Prix predictions 

With long straights, fast corner sequences and also some slower-speed sections Spain is a tough test car and driver alike.

Fernando Alonso explains: "The layout demands a lot from the aero package with the long corners, and it's also physical with high g-forces through the fast sections. 

“Tyre management is always a factor too because of the long, fast corners and the usually high track temperatures."

With this circuit being a two-stop race, there’s plenty for the team to get right as well. 

With many hours of testing undertaken in Spain, it’s a track everyone knows well, even the rookies, so the smallest advantage can make a big difference. 

Pirelli are bringing their hardest tyres to this event, a big difference from the last two races.

However, the race has been won from pole position 24 out of the last 34 (70%) races so whoever sets the fastest time on Saturday has a good chance of winning the race come Sunday. 

Verstappen is 7/1 (10bet) to win qualifying and go back that up by taking the race victory too. 

In fact, the winner of this race has come from the front row in 31 of the previous 34 races, even more times than in Monaco. It’s a front runner's paradise. 

FIRST’s top tip for Spanish GP 

So, with all that in mind – who do I think is most likely to win the race? 

I’m backing Max Verstappen, who said, in regards to this weekend:  “We should be more comfortable with the car and therefore more competitive. Spain is where I won my first Formula One race so I have many special memories." 

It’s also worth noting that since that first F1 victory for Verstappen in 2016, only he and Lewis Hamilton have won the Spanish Grand Prix. A crazy statistic when you think about it.

Pick: Max Verstappen to win the Spanish GP: 10/3 (10bet)

Extra tips

• If both Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz finish in the points at the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix, this will be the first time that Williams have scored points at five consecutive races since the first five GP’s of the 2016 season.

Williams to have a double points finish: 10/11 (10bet)
Williams to have a double top six finish: 16/1 (10bet)

•  Sainz possesses a 100% points-scoring rate in F1 at Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. I would expect him to collect an 11th consecutive home race.

Carlos Sainz to finish in the points: 4/9 (10bet)

• Only one safety car in the last 5 races means chances are relatively low – just a 28% chance in Spain.

Safety car to feature - No: 8/11 (10bet)

• Can bad luck follow you? Aston Martin's double world champion Alonso has yet to open his account, his worst start to a season in 10 years, but can he score points this weekend – that’s the question?

Fernando Alonso to finish in the points: 4/7 (10bet)

• 35 in a row? Oscar Piastri has scored points in the last 34 races, the third-longest scoring streak in F1 history, can he make it 35 this weekend. The chances are high with podium finishes in the last seven races.

Oscar Piastri to finish in the points: 1/25 (10bet)

Oscar Piastri to finish on the podium: 2/5 (Ladbrokes)

Formula 1 drivers standings 

Formula 1 constructors standings

Odds correct at the time of writing.