F1 title odds: McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull battle as ‘flexi-wing’ saga concludes

This weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix represents the first time that Formula 1 teams must introduce revised front-wing setups in 2025 – as the FIA seeks to address concerns that McLaren (1/33, Betfair) have taken advantage of previous regulations.

According to the sport’s old technical stipulations, teams were allowed to run front-wings that could deflect up to a maximum of 15 millimetres while under specific aerodynamic pressure. This was tested by FIA specialists ahead of every race as officials sought to ensure that all 10 teams complied with strict bodywork rules. 

However, on-track conditions are increasingly difficult to recreate from inside the garage. And, although FIA officials had been satisfied with McLaren’s in-house results, it has become apparent that the Woking outfit discovered a loophole to increase the ‘flex’ available to its front-wings.

In turn, the car enjoyed greater malleability under significant load. The result? Improved speed.

READ: Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Spanish GP betting tips, odds and race preview

To alleviate this issue, FIA figureheads opted to alter the sport’s front-wing regulations in January. Under this revamped directive, a car’s front-wing must not deflect more than 10 millimetres during testing by FIA officials. It may not stand as a sure-fire remedy – but this change should steepen the climb for mechanics searching for intricate ways to gain what is perceived as an unfair advantage. 

McLaren knocked off their perch?

McLaren appears set to achieve constructor’s championship glory for the second year running – sitting 172 points clear of their next closest rival, Mercedes (50/1, Betfred), before the ninth race of the 2025 season. 

If rumours within the Formula 1 paddock are to be believed, the Zak Brown-led group significantly benefitted from prior front-wing regulations. It is not a debut voyage into wing-related controversy for Brown and co. – with McLaren’s 2024 ‘mini DRS’ rear-wing culminating in a mid-campaign order to switch to a more rigid setup. 

Now, with the 15-millimetre ‘flex’ statute firmly in the rear-view mirror, other teams may envision an opportunity to close the gap.

Team principal at McLaren, Andrea Stella, has shot down suggestions that McLaren had discovered a special ‘flexi-wing’ approach unavailable to other garages: "It's good news when our rivals get their focus - rather than on themselves - onto some of the aspects that allegedly are present in our car, and that effectively are not even present.”

Ferrari (25/1, William Hill), according to Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, have remained “most conservative” on ‘flexi-wings’ – potentially placing the Maranello-based unit in good standing from Barcelona onwards. Scuderia head, Fred Vasseur, confirmed that The Prancing Horse has honed in on this week’s front-wing rule change for “ages”, dubbing the alteration a “gamechanger for everybody.”

Similar is true for Red Bull (66/1, BetVictor), whose championship fortunes remain solely reliant on Max Verstappen. Christian Horner noted that the conclusion of Formula 1’s front-wing debacle signals a “significant change” in the aftermath of the Romagna Grand Prix – yet the Milton Keynes campus steered clear of flexi-wing development throughout most of the latest generation of cars. 

Whether McLaren’s stalwart confidence is warranted remains to be seen. What is certain, though, is that each team knows this amendment is a pivotal moment for the season.

For whom this moment will prove fortuitous is far less clear.