Jennie Gow F1 predictions: Austrian GP betting tips, odds and race preview

Formula One state of play 

“I made a fool of myself” – not words you commonly hear an elite athlete saying, but Lando Norris is different, ‘unique’ some would say, certainly unlike most of the drivers I have met in the past. 

Honest, open, doubting his own abilities. Could that cost him the title, or free him to achieve what he dreamed of since he was a little boy? Time will tell.

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That misjudgement last time out in Canada, in a race that George Russell ultimately won, going for a gap to try and pass his teammate that simply wasn’t there, was a costly mistake. 

Not only damaging his ego, but taking points from himself, definitely 10, but quite possibly even more. The gap between Norris and Oscar Piastri is now 22 points. A margin that will worry Norris fans and elate Piastri’s.

Max Verstappen is a further 21 points behind Norris in the drivers championship battle and even with the crash in Canada, McLaren are 175 points ahead of second-place Mercedes, with Ferrari now third and Red Bull, only scoring points with one car, are in fourth place.

However, this week – the first of a double-header – sees us enter the lion’s den as F1 visits the Red Bull Ring in the heart of the Austrian hills. A track that should favour the Red Bull and specifically, Verstappen.

Austrian Grand Prix odds

Austrian Grand Prix predictions

Analysing the circuit

Of all the tracks on the current F1 calendar, the Red Bull Ring has the fewest corners (10) with the shortest lap time (1’02”939, set by Valtteri Bottas in a Mercedes in 2020). 

It’s got plenty of elevation change, with a 63.5 metre difference between the highest and lowest points on track. There are three DRS zones, which makes this race one of the most action-packed on the calendar. 

The venue is used year-round, with racing on both four and two wheels, therefore the track is well rubbered-in right from the start of the weekend. This race is likely to be a two-stopper, with the mid-range tyres supplied by Pirelli (C3, C4, C5). 

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It’s an old track which can be highly abrasive, but actually that doesn’t have too much effect on the race. 

It’s influenced more by the location of the race, being set in the Styrian mountains, which can see the weather turn in the blink of an eye. 

Forecasts at the moment show high temperatures and little chance of rain which could favour McLaren rather than the big winners last time out, Mercedes.

Focus on the favourites

Notable records going into this weekend, and they’re all about Max Verstappen. He holds the record at the Red Bull Ring for the greatest number of wins (five), poles (five) and podiums (eight).

It’s worth bearing in mind the race has been won from pole 10 times (50%). Last year, only ‘that’ crash between Verstappen and Norris left the way open for George Russell to take the win. 65% of races have been won from the front row of the grid.

I’d expect the usual suspects to be in contention for the front row – Piastri, who is the current favourite for pole with many bookies, Verstappen and Norris (with an outside chance for Ferrari and Mercedes). Piastri is leading the way with 4 poles, 3 for Verstappen, 2 for Norris. 

As pressure mounts on Norris for the title, it seems he is making more mistakes in the final part of qualifying. 

Norris is statistically the faster driver of the two McLaren men, however his boss Andrea Stella has said: “He just tried too hard”. 

An accusation 2016 drivers championship winner Nico Rosberg has also levelled at Norris, saying he is ‘over-driving’ his McLaren in the final part of qualifying. 

That simple fact means it’s easier and perhaps safer to back Piastri and Verstappen to start on the front row and convert to a win.

FIRST’s top tip for the Austrian GP 

For me, Verstappen has the home advantage and anyone else entering the Red Bull Ring best beware. 

Having started on pole for five consecutive races in Austria, you would have to back him to make it six in a row this weekend. 

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The hundreds of thousands of fans at the Red Bull Ring will be cheering him on all the way and hoping for a return to winning ways. 

He’s only managed two wins this season (Japan and Imola) so it’s about time he got back to the top step.

Pick: Max Verstappen qualifying winner and race winner - 13/2 (10bet)

Things to consider and extra race tips 

Front row: Looking at the stats it backs Verstappen and Piastri to start on the front row of the grid. The Dutchman has the better form at the Red Bull Ring so I could see him taking pole with Piastri starting P2.

Pick: Qualifying winning car: 

McLaren - 8/13 (10bet)

Red Bull Racing 5/2 (10bet)

A full race gap: Piastri leads the championship by 22 points. By the time this round is over I foresee him leading by more than 25 points, a major psychological gap, a full race DNF (did not finish) margin. 

If that happens when we’re nearing the half-way mark, it could see McLaren starting to favour one driver over the other, even though the team rank parity for their drivers as a crucial team marker.

A grand plan: The grand slam for Verstappen – winning from pole position having led every lap and set the fastest lap – would be his sixth. Meaning he would equal Lewis Hamilton’s second place on the list of most Grand Slams in F1, behind only Jim Clark.

Pick: Winning from pole position: Max Verstappen - 13/2 (10bet)

SC/VSC: 70% of races have featured the safety car (falling to 60% in the last 5 races) so chances are relatively high this weekend.

Pick: Safety car features: Yes - 4/6 (10bet)

Can Kimi do it?: This weekend is the final chance for Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli to become the youngest front row starter in a Grand Prix in F1 history. 

The current record was set by Lance Stroll at the Italian GP in 2017 – he was 18 years 10 months and 5 days old – on race day in Austria, Kimi will be one day younger. 

I predict Stroll will keep his record, even if Antonelli managed to stand on the podium for the first time, last time out.

Pick: Kimi Antonelli top three finish in qualifying: 6/1 (Ladbrokes) 

Another Alonso seventh spot: Fernando Alonso recorded his 30th seventh place finish in Canada. Another seventh place finish in Austria would see him overtake Sergio Perez for the most in Formula 1 history.

Pick: Fernando Alonso to score a points finish - 8/11 (Ladbrokes)

Overtakes: With three DRS zones, making this race one of the most action-packed on the calendar, you could back the most amount of overtakes this season for a long term thought!

2025 Formula 1 driver standings

2025 Formula 1 constructors standings

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Odds correct at the time of writing.